Encouraged by Ukraine’s sustained advances in drone warfare, Western media is abuzz with the idea that Kyiv just might be able to defeat Russia after more than four years of bitter fighting.
In May, Time magazine hailed Ukraine’s drone industry as giving Kyiv “the cards to win without U.S. help.” Last month, CNN lauded Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow as “a likely turning point” in the war. Earlier this month, Defense One even framed the conflict as a settled matter with the headline “How Ukraine won the first great robot war.”
But this isn’t the first time the press has played up Ukraine’s military capabilities, despite repeated setbacks on the battlefield. As experts warn Responsible Statecraft, such coverage reinforces the idea that more military aid can still help Ukraine win back all of its territory, thus downplaying the need for a negotiated solution.
Overplaying Ukraine’s hand
As Daniel Davis, a military expert at Defense Priorities, tells RS, “Western media narratives claiming Ukraine has ‘turned the tide’ do not survive contact with basic military reality.”
“Tactical Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and supply hubs — like the recent hits on [Russian retailer] Wildberries near Moscow and St. Petersburg — make for dramatic television,” Davis wrote to RS, citing recent Ukrainian drone attacks within Russia . “They do not disrupt Moscow’s core ability to wage a long-term war of attrition.”
Michael Desch, an international relations professor at the University of Notre Dame, tells RS that drones alone cannot earn Ukraine a military victory. “Best Ukraine can do [with drones] is slow the Russians down a bit,” he said.
“There is no doubt that Ukraine has recently upped its medium- and deep-strike drone operations against Russia and has done some damage,” he said. “The problem with the [mainstream media] coverage is that it ignores: a) Russia is doing the same [and] b) Russia is still making consistent gains on the ground.”
To Desch’s point, Russian forces continue , albeit slowly, to push westward into Eastern Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine say they have captured villages at the war’s frontlines.
More broadly, as Barry Posen, a political science professor at MIT, tells RS, “the press highlights anything that looks like positive news for Ukraine from the battlefield. And it tends to minimize Ukrainian setbacks.”
“They do not disrupt Moscow’s core ability to wage a long-term war of attrition.”
Posen cited Ukraine’s 2024 Kursk offensive as an episode where the media overplayed Kyiv’s prospects. “It was clear that this [offensive] was a diversion of scarce Ukrainian combat power to a mission that could not produce important military results. And it ended very badly for Ukraine,” he said.
The media similarly overhyped Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023, where Kyiv tried to retake Russian-held territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. “It turned into a horrendous sacrifice of soldiers on minefields and the drone-infested steppe,” Almut Rochowanski, a nonresident fellow at the Quincy Institute, said. “No gain to Ukraine at all, but enormous human and material resources were squandered.”
Despite repeated military setbacks, many pro-Ukraine commentators “remain completely unfazed,” said Mark Episkopos, a research fellow in the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program.
“Retired U.S. Army officer Ben Hodges predicted that the Russian army will collapse by March 2022, and again by the end of 2022, and that Crimea will be retaken in 2023,” Episkopos said.
In fact, Hodges made a similar prediction just last week, telling The Sun that Ukraine was once again working to isolate Crimea. “There will be a significant political problem for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin when Crimea is finally back under Ukraine’s control,” Hodges said. “Things are moving in the right direction for Ukraine.”
The Western press has also downplayed the fact that many Ukrainians no longer want to fight.
“English-language reports about violent resistance to conscription [in Ukraine] are dwarfed by stories claiming Russia is faltering,” writer Branko Marcetic previously observed in RS . “Some Ukrainian-language reports about the country’s recruitment and demographic crises are simply never translated to English.”
Prolonging the war
But rosy coverage of Ukraine’s wartime prospects helps Western politicians make the case for more military aid, prolonging the conflict.
“The discourse around this war is saturated with the delusion that victory is right around the corner if the West simply does a little more,” Episkopos told RS. “As if one or two fresh aid tranches and sanctions packages will accomplish what $150 billion in military aid [to Ukraine] and the world’s most ambitious sanctions regime with over 25,000 restrictions [against Russia] could not,” he said, citing previous efforts to assist Ukraine.
“There is no viable military path to a Ukrainian victory.”
“Most Western leaders … stand to lose politically from [abandoning the Ukrainian war effort],” he stressed. “Therefore, the only course left is to double down on the alternative information space they’ve created for themselves regardless of how far removed it is from the realities of this war.”
But observers say that doubling down, rather than pursuing diplomacy, has real costs for Ukrainians on the ground.
“ By overstating Kyiv’s position, the Western media masks a grim reality: There is no viable military path to a Ukrainian victory,” Davis said. “Continuing to arrogantly pursue one anyway only prolongs the destruction and casualties pointlessly suffered by Kyiv.”
“Ukraine will either have to negotiate the best peace terms available or face complete military defeat,” Davis warned.
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The Illusion of Ukraine’s Latest ‘Turned Tide’
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