Lebanese brace for Israel's signature strategy: collective punishment

Whatever can be said about Hizbullah, one cannot deny that the party's leaders are true to their word. During a prisoner exchange between Hizbullah and Israel in 2004, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed that if all Lebanese detainees were not freed from Israeli jails, Hizbullah would eventually abduct more Israeli soldiers. Fulfiling this pledge, Hizbullah on Wednesday captured two Israeli soldiers in an operation dubbed "Truthful Promise."

During a news conference on Wednesday, Nasrallah made another vow: that "no military operation will return" the two soldiers, and that only another prisoner swap will secure their freedom. Only a fool would doubt that Nasrallah now means what he says. The Israelis must therefore carefully weigh two difficult questions. Is it really worth it for them to continue keeping three Lebanese prisoners in jail? And is the mere chance of saving two soldiers really worth spilling more Israeli blood in another deadly military adventure in Lebanon?

Nasrallah initially tried to secure the release of Lebanese prisoners through a second phase of prisoner-exchange negotiations, but these high-profile talks abruptly fell apart. This begs the question of whether the current crisis could have been avoided, had these negotiations been carried out to the very end.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has already painted himself into a corner over the crisis in Gaza, is now in an even tighter spot. Although he has billed himself as a man of peace and a negotiator, he has ruled out any talks with Palestinian militants on a prisoner exchange. The coming days will tell whether he will choose to negotiate with the Lebanese or opt to repeat the senseless military mission in Gaza.

Most Lebanese view Hizbullah's latest operation as a dangerous gamble. Although they do not have much sympathy for the Israelis, who destroyed their country during a brutal invasion and occupation, they do fear Israel's signature brand of retaliation - collective punishment - at a time when their country is already passing through a period of instability. They are dangerously exposed because their leaders have failed to forge a sense of cohesion and unity during the national dialogue.

Lebanese civilians, who have absolutely no control over the events that are unfolding, and who once again find themselves in the eye of the storm, are now bracing for the very worst. Their darkest fear is that as they helplessly repeat the act of watching history unfold on their land, this time the promise of Lebanon's resurrection will itself become history.