IUC failed but Ethiopia and TFG are now on the spot light

In my recent article, posted on Hiiran, Gedonet and other websites titled “Islamic Union Courts has fallen into the Ethiopian trap”, I commented about the positive changes made by IUC since they had taken over the control of Somali capital, Mogadishu. These changes included restoring law and order in Mogadishu, reopening air and sea ports and dismantling the maze of militia check points that had suffocated the capital for many years. The article also highlighted some of their shortcomings such as launching attacks on relatively peaceful towns and cities. I also offered a caveat to the IUCs not to fall into the enemy trap by creating a hostile perception. Unfortunately, IUC have not changed course and are now deep into the trap. Since I wrote that article, a lot has changed in the political landscape of Somalia and the situation has become even more dangerous. .As I write this article, most of the territories taken by IUC under the newly invented pretext “we have been invited” (Waa naloo yeertay) have now been recaptured by the Ethiopian backed Transitional Federal Government.

On Sunday Dec. 24, 06, the Ethiopian prime Minster Malez Zenawi made a televised address to his country and declared, for the first time, that “Ethiopian military is at war with Somalia's Islamist movements and would continue until the mission is completed”. Prior to the Sunday address, Ethiopian Prime Minister Malez Zenawi had his parliament approve to use whatever means necessary to defend his country against what he called Islamic terrorists from Somalia.

In this fight, Zenawi has, not only the approval of his parliament, but has the backing of the western countries led by the US, which were initially reluctant to endorse Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, but now are very much worried by the increasing power of Islamic courts. Preoccupied with its intractable missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US is prepared to use IGAD as a proxy in its war against terrorist threats in East Africa. Few weeks ago, a US sponsored draft resolution was approved by the Security Council for partial lifting of arms embargo on Somalia; a move IUCs has always opposed but has contributed a lot to make it happen. The resolution calls and paved the way for the deployment of IGAD task force in Somalia. Although the resolution excluded Ethiopia from taking part in the peace keeping force in Somalia, but it is widely believed that Ethiopia has a tacit approval from west to crash the Islamic Union Courts militia to make it safe for the deployment of IGAD peace keeping force.

Now two questions may be asked: are the Islamic Courts to be blamed for the ongoing war with Ethiopia? And what are the Ethiopian objectives in Somalia?

Islamic Union Courts:

The answer of this question is yes and here is why. We know that TFG was established with the backing of the IGAD member countries, including Ethiopia and has always been calling for the deployment of regional peace keeping forces in Somalia to bring law and order in the country. But this has never been materialized due to the fact that the international community and almost all of Mogadishu warlords opposed to sending peace keepers to Somalia. As I indicated in my previous article, when the Islamic Courts seized power from the ruthless warlords in Mogadishu, they received a great deal of support from the Somali people. This support was an expression of how much Mogadishu Warlords were hated rather an approval of IUCs’ ideology or strategy. The international community also viewed the transfer of power from warlords to the courts as a positive sign for restoring law and order in Somalia. However, some countries including the United States of America and Ethiopia accused the Islamic courts groups of having links with terrorist organizations though IUC has always maintained not having such ties with the Alqaeda or other terrorist groups.

To that end, Islamic Union Courts had golden chance to address the concerns of the international community, neighboring states, as well as the other regions of the country by showing that they are not religious extremist movement and a destabilizing force in the country and the region. Sadly, their military expansion and policy statements reinforced the suspicion of the international community. Soon after IUC came to power, the top leaders of the IUC made number of political speeches hostile to the neighboring states as well as the existing administrations in other regions of the country like Puntland and Somaliland. They also began territorial expansion contrary to what they have signed at the first Khartoum conference with the Interim Federal Government. This has led to the international community to rethink their position as it relates to the Islamic Courts and supported peace keeping deployment in Somalia. The fact that IUCs are receiving military support from Eritrea –an arch-enemy of Ethiopia, and the presence of Ogaden and Oromo fighters in IUC controlled areas of Somalia, constitutes a real threat for Ethiopia and justifies military actions against IUCs.

Thus, Islamic Union Courts proved to be merely another mass mobilization without any political strategy behind it, similar to the one we had witnessed in 1991. The difference between 1991 mass mobilization led by the USC and the current IUCs call for arms is that one was purely clan-based movement while the other is combination of clan and religious ideology. Both movements exploited the prevailing public discontent with the status quo. Both used force to achieve their objectives at the expenses of political dialog and consensus building. The leaders of both movements lost control of their militia after the initial victory. They both failed to provide solutions to the country’s problems. In each occasion; the leaders of the movement were not expecting to defeat their opponent in such a short time and become drowned in their own victory.

The unexpected victory of the Union Courts reminded of the story of a nomadic man who came across a flock of grazing camels and shouted loudly to find out the owner/herder of the camels and hearing no response, said to himself “perhaps I am the owner of these camels” (malaha annigaaba geela la joogay). By defeating warlords in such easy manner, the IUCs felt they were the owners of the camels. It appears that the Islamic Union Courts have not learned a lesson from the earlier USC mass mobilization. They are matching on the same path as USC and are likely receiving advice from remnants of that now defunct organization. Remember the wise Somali mother whose son was sick and when asked what was wrong with her son and sadly replied “Hooyo cudurkii kuwii hore u dhinteen ayaa haya” which in translation means “the child is suffering from the same disease that killed his/her older siblings”. This also implies that chance of recovery for the child is very slim. Hence, IUC have got the same disease that killed their predecessors “USC, Arta etc. They are doomed to fail because they do not seem to have any political strategy for winning.

What are the Ethiopian Objectives in Somalia?

The answer of this question is not straight forward. People will give you different answers to the same question. Some will say, Ethiopia does not want to see a sovereign strong Somalia capable of defending its territory, others will say Ethiopia wants to install friendly government in Somalia that won’t pose threat to her interest and will grant access to its sea port. While other will say, this is all about project , Ethiopia wants to sale Somalia with the highest western bidder –in this case America about a perceived Islamic threat in Somalia. I also cannot give you a precise answer with regard to Ethiopian objectives in Somalia, but I am confident that if Ethiopia is trying to restore the status quo prevailing prior to the raise of IUC in Somalia, it will fail miserably. If the Ethiopian intention is to weaken the power of the Islamic Union courts, then install Dabageed in Hiiraan, Mohamed Dheere in Jowhar, TFG in Kismanyo, etc that policy will not succeed and Somali people will never accept and will fight against returning to the era of warlords. However, if Ethiopian regime genuinely wants to assist TFG gain the capacity to restore law and order in Somalia and stop supporting the breakup of Somalia, it will benefit from such a policy in the long run.

I hope that readers of this article will not misconstrue it as propaganda for Ethiopian regime. As we all know Ethiopia and Somalia have never enjoyed a friendly relationship and we know the reasons for this, but it is undeniable fact that, Ethiopia, under Melez’ regime passed a law that allows Somali refugees in Ethiopia to have the same rights as Ethiopian citizens. This law allowed them to stay, travel, and do business freely in any part of Ethiopia without restriction. Secondly, the current Ethiopian constitution drafted under Mr. Zenawi’s regime, recognizes the rights and freedoms of all ethnic groups, including the right to independence or self determination. Article 39 of the Ethiopian constitution gives different nationalities an option to secede from the rest of the country if they fulfill the required conditions. This was a radical departure from the positions of earlier Ethiopia regimes in respect to rights of different nationalities in Ethiopia.

Today, whether Ethiopia wanted or not, the present crisis put her on the spot light. Every action it takes is subject to scrutiny by the Somalia people as well as the international communities. Therefore, it is up to the Melez’s regime to assist his own creation “the Somali TFG”and clear the doubts that most Somalis have towards Ethiopia or re-inforce it by showing alternate motives. It is a daunting task to resolve the crisis in Somalia but what is needed is good intention and clear strategy. Zenawi should also keep in mind that it was through Somalia’s support that he came to power and his own survival may now well depend on how he handles the present crisis in Somalia. Currently, neither Zenawi nor Yusuf are popular in their respective countries but if they succeed in this mission by restoring lasting peace to Somalia, then people may be willing to forgive their past deeds.

In my humble opinion, IUCs leadership has failed to seize the opportunity of becoming a uniting and stabilizing force in Somalia for the many reasons mentioned above. However, the courts can still make the strategic decision of stopping this unwinnable war and try to pursue their political objectives through dialogue and comprise. By doing so, the courts will save the lives of thousands of our educated youth who are being slaughtered in this war. IUCs provide no solution for the nation’s political problem as Mr.Abdirahman Abdi rightly wrote in his article called “IUC offers No Solution to Somalia’s ills”. I also agree with him that we should support the TFG, not necessarily the current leadership but the process itself. It is definitely not a perfect system but we can improve it. The alternative leads us to dictatorship and destruction. So let us help the ship to sail from Baydhabo to Mogadishu. Please fasten seat belts, I assure you; it will be rough ride but it will reach the destination. Insha Allaah!

By: Abdi Jama (Gunna-Gunne)