With myriad of excuses ranging from 'helping' the Somali government to confronting 'terror', Ethiopia has illegally deployed thousands of its illiterate and unpaid militias in many parts of Somalia. Instead of helping the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as claimed by the head of the morally bankrupt regime in Addis Ababa, Mr. Meles Zenawi, the presence of armed Ethiopian military personnel has so far accomplished three intended goals.
Many including Ogaden Online political analysts in the horn of Africa, inherently believe that the three objectives, all of which have not an iota to do with helping the TFG, were and still are the raison d'etre of the illegal deployment and presence of Ethiopian militias deep inside Somali territory.
Chief among the deployment objective is the continued maintenance of Ethiopian influence over the TFG at all costs. It is no secret that many of the defeated Somali warlords existed for the sole purpose of serving Ethiopian interests in Somalia.
The military defeat of these warlords by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) dealt a heavy blow to Ethiopia's hegemonic interests and its open access to many parts of the Somali republic such as the capital Mogadishu.
Since these warlords cannot militarily come back to the Somali republic, and the TFG can not behave like the warlords then it became inevitable to bring in Ethiopian troops inside Somalia to not only bully the TFG but also to maintain Ethiopian influence.
Anyone with a modicum of understanding of the long Ethio-Somali history will attest to the fact that the presence of armed Ethiopian military personnel whatever their motive is only adds fuel to the long burning fire of hostilities between these two nations.
The head of the autocracy in Addis Ababa is fully aware of this history however the sending of his military into Somalia is intended to accomplish the second objective, which is to associate the TFG forever with Ethiopia.
Armed Ethiopian militias 'protecting' the TFG create an immovable wedge between the TFG and the Somali nation it is supposed to serve. This also makes the TFG subservient to Zenawi's machinations whatever they might be.
Militarily, Zenawi and his military ilk know that Baidoba is not defendable. They know that supplying the troops through the air through prolonged periods of time is not visible. They also understand that while the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) fighters control most of the roads in Ogaden, supplying the troops deployed deep in Somalia is an impossible task.
Furthermore they comprehend full well that so long as the majority of the Somali people are against anyone allied with Ethiopia, Ethiopian military campaigns whatever name they are given are bound to fail. However they, Zenawi and his ilk, believe that sending the military to Somalia in the name of helping the TFG accomplishes the third and the most important goal.
The third objective is multifold. First it is to demonize the UIC through the use of press releases with catchy words such as 'Jihadist'. It is to send open invitations to the Western press for a candid chat with Zenawi. The recent upsurge of the availability of Zenawi and his openness to talk about anything to do with Somalia as if he is the Somali premier reveals this strategy is already at work.
Secondly this objective articulates the provocation of the UIC through brief military skirmishes. Ethiopian capture and the haste retreat from Buur Hakaba shows that this planned objective has already been put to good use. Militarily the capture of Buur Hakaba does not make sense however it annoyed the UIC, which responded by sending thousands of its troops to this area.
The UIC also rightly talked about waging 'Jihad' against the Ethiopian aggressors. Zenawi's propaganda machine and his minister without portfolio Mr. Bereket Simon latched on to the declaration of 'Jihad' to claim that Ethiopia is under 'terror' threat.
The prolonged talk of 'imminent' UIC threat against Ethiopia is part of this calculated campaign to drive the cost of convincing the Americans and the Western world that Ethiopia should be supported morally, monetarily, and militarily.
Thirdly, the objective is to discourage the TFG from ever resolving its differences with the UIC for the benefit of the Somali populace. The idea is to beat the drums of war in order to convince otherwise TFG members such as the speaker of parliament and many parliamentarians who believe that the TFG and the UIC can reconcile their differences especially through the Khartoum conference.
To scuttle any possible agreements with the UIC at the Khartoum conference, Zenawi's right-hand man in the TFG Mr. Ali Geedi successfully implemented this plan by insisting that the speaker of parliament does not represent his government when in fact all three heads of the TFG agreed months ago that the speaker of parliament was to be the TFG representative at the Khartoum conference or any other talk with UIC.
Fourthly and most importunately the objective is to engage the UIC militarily around Baidoba. Zenawi knows that his poorly trained militias are no match for a determined enemy with a strong conviction. His plan for the military engagement with the UIC is to order an orderly withdrawal of his militias together with the TFG that they were supposed to protect back to Ethiopia proper. He is hoping to host the TFG for years to come with all the goodies that will come from the EU and the Arab league.
When Mr. Zenawi talks about being "technically" at war with UIC, what he is implying is that many do not understand the objectives behind the supposed 'war'. Zenawi's technicalities are nothing more than a disguised plan to hijack the Somalia agenda once again and to make sure that no peace and stability ever returns to the once proud but now downtrodden Somalia populace.
Judging by the amount of articles written on the Somali issue by the Western press, it appears that he has so far succeeded in driving the agenda of the TFG however we are not sure if he will succeed in keeping his militias engaged in Somalia long enough to see to fruition all of his implicitly articulated goals and objectives.
Zenawi talk of 'imminent war' of 'Jihad' being declared on Ethiopia when his militias are hundreds of kilometers deep inside Somalia is nothing more than a bully's brouhaha. His, Zenawi's, tattletales paint the picture of a bully who has finally found his match in a playground that he once used to trot unopposed.
The truth of the matter about Somalia is that the world community should neither encourage nor fund Ethiopian aggression against the Somalia populace. The world community led by the capable Americans should realize that the best course of action in making sure that no terrorists find a haven in a failed state such as Somalia is to engage the Somali people directly.
Siding with Ethiopian agenda against Somalia not only hinders the realization of peace and prosperity in Somalia but it might also fuel a regional war which is easily ignitable but will have far reaching security consequences well beyond the Somali borders.
Ogaden Online Staff
staff@ogaden.com
www.ogaden.com