Editorial: Sharon’s Game Plan

13 September 2004

It is hard to believe that Ariel Sharon, despite his daily vows and alleged intentions, will ever leave Gaza. The actions of the Israeli prime minister simply do not square with a pullout of any sort as is evidenced by the Israeli Army which is now sealing off the West Bank and Gaza Strip. This bars Palestinians from entering Israel until the Jewish holiday season ends in October, ostensibly because of fears of Palestinian attacks. Nonetheless, the attack on Hamas fighters last week, which killed 14, and the latest siege of the Jabaliya Refugee Camp do not portray Israel as the party under fire.

Of course, it is in Sharon’s and Israel’s interests to quit Gaza as soon as possible. Israel pays a high price in money, lives and global reputation to maintain Gaza even though the real prizes are big West Bank chunks of land, which US President George Bush handed to Sharon on a virtual silver platter. That means hundreds of thousands of settlers live there and will most likely stay there violating a key clause of the road map.

Sharon, however, has a long and hard road to travel before he can actually pull out. His proposed timetable has been drawn up in such a way that a pullout would be accomplished in stages to appease those who oppose a withdrawal. Tomorrow, the plan goes before the Cabinet Security Committee for agreement. If that passes, it then goes for a full Cabinet vote in late October, followed by its first reading in the Knesset in early November. The bill could be passed, perhaps in December, after which the Cabinet would set a date for carrying out the withdrawal.

It will of course be bumpy because of those who oppose the pullout. Settler leaders are now warning that plans to evacuate some Jewish settlements in Gaza could plunge Israel into civil war. Reflecting simmering far-right resistance to Sharon’s Gaza withdrawal plan, a group of prominent hard-line Israelis have urged soldiers to disobey orders to dismantle settlements. Some well-armed settlers might resist with force.

Sharon vows to press ahead undeterred, but for now he remains in Gaza where the latest incursion into Jabaliya is no more likely to succeed than other such ventures. While Israel’s offensive has hindered Hamas’ military capabilities, especially after its targeted assassinations of the No 1 and 2 Hamas leaders earlier this year, it has not ended it, neither in Israel, as the Beersheba attacks show, nor on settlements and Israeli towns in and around Gaza. Thus, if Israel is to thoroughly cleanse Gaza of weapons, it would require a full-scale conquest at a cost of several hundred, maybe thousands of, Palestinian lives, a situation which international opinion would reject outright.

Which is perhaps why Sharon has re-directed some of his fire from Gaza to what he perceives to be the real “terrorist headquarters” — Damascus. Faced with a military impasse in Gaza, it would seem only natural for Sharon to set his sights on Syria and turn a local conflict into something much bigger.