Pepe Escobar and I received the following intelligence report last Thursday, which was produced by a knowledgeable source with access. I am not reproducing the entire report, but want to highlight the issue of whether or not Iran now has, or soon will have a nuke. Let me emphasize that I firmly support past US intel community assessments that Iran, until now, had no interest in obtaining a nuke.
However, it appears that the surprise attack on 28 February, which followed the aborted color revolution attempted in late December 2025, played a decisive role in changing Iran’s view on this matter. Here is a portion of what Pepe and I received last Thursday:
The public narrative surrounding the events of May 25, 2026, has fundamentally misdiagnosed the operational reality. We are witnessing an irreversible shift in the regional power structure, driven by a sequence of highly calibrated escalations that have exposed the limits of American coercive power and the fragility of the post-1991 Gulf security paradigm.
The structural reality is clear: The United States is operating from an eroding basing infrastructure, with a compromised executive, against an adversary that has mastered asymmetric escalation. . . .
Following Trump’s maximalist public response, the Supreme National Security Council deployed its ultimate deterrent. Through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif—currently the only trusted back-channel between Washington and Tehran—Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian communicated a formally structured, three-step strategic ultimatum if US strikes continued:
1. Immediate Withdrawal from the ongoing nuclear peace talks.
2. Total Abandonment of the prospective Nuclear Treaty framework.
3. The Detonation of a Nuclear Device on Iranian soil—executed not as a weapon of war, but as an undeniable demonstration of sovereign capability and ultimate control over the escalation ladder.
Transmitted by Pakistani FM Ishaq Dar to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this was not rhetoric; it was a binary geopolitical shock warning. Rubio recognized the gravity, immediately moving to suppress the White House’s escalatory posturing.
Here is my analysis of this information. The Iranian National Security Council met last week in the aftermath of US strikes on Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas. The Council directed President Pezeshkian to deliver a message to Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shebas Sharif. Pezeshkian’s message was simple and direct. Prime Minister Sharif then directed his Foreign Minister, Mr. Ishaq Dar, to deliver the message to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Let me emphasize that the source of this information was involved in the decision making process that culminated in the warning delivered to Rubio.
The key phrase — If US Strikes Continued — was delivered to Rubio on Thursday. Based on Iran’s announcement today (Monday) that it was withdrawing from further talks with the US until the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the Palestinians ends, I believe this intelligence report to be credible. The ball is now in the hands of Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu… If Israel persists in bombing Lebanon — Beirut in particular — then we should expect Iran to announce that it is withdrawing from the NPT. Once free of the NPT obligations, Iran will be free to carry out item 3, i.e., Detonating a Nuclear Device on Iranian Soil. This will be a demonstration intended to warn Israel and the US that further attacks on Iran would carry catastrophic consequences.
Pepe and I received clarification on how Iran has obtained a functioning nuke… The information regarding the construction of this device (or devices) was provided by a third country that does have proven capabilities in this area. Iran’s objective is, with the backing of Pakistan, China and Russia, to raise the risk to Israel of engaging in future attacks on Iran.
The source also provided the following assessment of the consequences of US and Israeli actions on the global security and financial architecture:
The secondary effects of this standoff are rewiring the global strategic and financial architecture in real time:
• The Collapse of the Abraham Accords: The political infrastructure sustaining Israeli-Arab normalization is functionally dead. Pakistan has publicly rejected it, Saudi Arabia has frozen all back-channel discussions, and Qatar and Oman are actively preparing a six-to-nine-month timeline for U.S. forces to vacate their military installations.
• The Emerging Security Axis: A new Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt security architecture is being constructed, completely detached from U.S. backing. Pakistan has elevated itself from a peripheral player to the indispensable operational pivot, leveraging an Islamic cultural proximity that neither Washington nor Beijing can replicate.
• Systemic Risk to the Global Order: An Iranian nuclear demonstration would obliterate the global non-proliferation framework and hand Beijing an unearned, definitive proof-of-concept regarding the limits of American hegemony.
Donald Trump still has time to de-escalate the situation and avoid catastrophe, but it will require some unpalatable, difficult decisions on his part. First, and most important, cut aid to Israel and compel Netanyahu to end his attack on Lebanon and withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza. I doubt that Trump has the spine to do this, but it is the kind of dramatic step required to persuade the Iranians that Trump is serious about negotiating a genuine settlement. Second, lift the sanctions — at least on Iranian oil — and return frozen Iranian assets. Third, accept that Iran has jurisdiction over those parts of the Strait of Hormuz that sit in Iran’s territory under international law. I doubt that Trump is willing to entertain these options, which means a high probability that the fighting will reignite. If Israel continues to attack Lebanon — Beirut in particular — Iran has made it quite clear that it will attack Israeli military sites and personnel in northern Israel. Last week’s market euphoria about an impending peace deal has evaporated. Now the Western world must come to grips with the reality that Iran, with the firm backing of China and Russia, is prepared to resist US pressure and threats until the Iranian forces prevail.
An extraordinarily busy podcast day. I started the week with my regular hit with Judge Napolitano: Nima and I caught the breaking news of Iran pulling the plug on negotiations: Sulaiman Ahmed also wanted to focus on Iran’s decision to shut down further negotiations until its key demands are met: Glenn Diesen also wanted to discuss the matter. Kyle Anzalone asked me to elaborate on the intelligence report about Iran demonstrating a nuke: Pepe Escobar and I are now partnered up to do a weekly broadcast on Zulfiqar Ali’s Power Shift channel. We will do a joint-panel discussion twice a month. Here is our premiere episode discussing the intelligence document we received: The news out of Iran hit Mario hard and he asked me to discuss the mix messages being sent by Trump and Netanyahu: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .