Getting caught up on the current state of negotiations between Iran and the US
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21 Cross-posted from Sonar 21 Trump and his national security sycophants continue to live in a dream world when it comes to negotiating with Iran. A few days ago hearts in DC were palpitating with hopes that a deal was at hand, but those beating hearts were stilled following Trump’s Friday afternoon meeting with his national security team. Both the NY Times and Axios are out on Saturday with reports that, if true, means there is no diplomatic, negotiated settlement in sight.
Both the NY Times and Axios agree that Trump is hardening his position and that Iran’s responses have been unsatisfactory to the US. They highlight the central issues: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and the threat of renewed strikes. Both note that talks remain active but fragile. However, they are not entirely en sync.
Axios presents the story in its signature concise, insider-focused style, heavily relying on Trump’s own words and senior U.S. officials. In mid-May, Axios reported Trump telling the outlet directly that “ the clock is ticking ” for Iran. He warned that if Tehran does not return with a significantly better offer, “they are going to get hit much harder” and “they better get moving fast or they are not gonna have anything left.” Axios’ coverage stresses Trump’s frustration with Iran’s latest counter-proposal, which US officials described as “insufficient,” particularly on the nuclear program. Axios highlights the binary choice Trump is presenting: make real concessions or face resumed military action (“negotiations through bombs”). Axios portrays Trump as impatient but still preferring a deal on his terms, while noting that domestic pressures like inflation and high energy prices add urgency to getting a deal done.
They NY Times , however, frames Trump’s approach as sowing confusion, reflecting internal tug-of-war between hawks and those wanting a quick deal to ease economic pain at home. In reporting that Trump had toughened the terms of a proposed peace framework and sent the revised version back to Iran, partly to pressure Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the Times’ reporters said nothing about Iran’s likely reaction. Instead, they simply noted that while Trump is applying more pressure, his campaign has so far had limited effect on shifting Iran’s core positions, especially on uranium enrichment and its nuclear program.
Back in my days at CIA, we called that No Shit analysis. Neither the Times nor Axios chose to report that Iran’s position on those issues remains firm and uncompromising. Iran, exercising its territorial rights, will control the flow of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future and will not, under any circumstance, turn over its supply of enriched uranium to the United States. I am not sure that Trump and his advisers understand that, but it would sure be helpful if the media would help educate the public about this reality.
This process is likely to drag on until early next week when the Pakistani intermediaries will deliver Iran’s response to Trump’s new demands. I think it is going to take a major economic shock in the US to persuade Trump to make a deal that Iran will accept. Don’t hold your breath.
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