In an episode of the Rest is Politics podcast aired in February 2025, British academic and ex-politician Rory Stewart asked the then newly appointed President of Syria, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, to name a few countries he is taking inspiration from as a model for Syria's own economic and political revival .
Among others, Al-Sharaa mentioned Rwanda, a country which, in his own words, "overcame significant challenges to its development", a muted reference to the genocide in which over half a million Rwandan Tutsis were killed in 1994.
Over the next three decades, under the authoritarian rule of President Paul Kagame, the country underwent a radical and comprehensive programme of political and economic revival and national reconciliation. Indeed, it became one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Karam Shaar, a political and economic analyst and director of the Karam Shaar Advisory, said in a recent session of the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings that "from the get-go, Ahmad Al-Sharaa was clear that he is interested in the Rwandan model of reconstruction”.
This strategy promotes privatisation and free-market policies that reestablish the nation as a part of the international economy, under the tutelage of a strongman. On the surface, there are strong parallels in the new Syria. Widespread slashing of taxes for both the richest and the poorest of society, a rapid downsizing of the public sector, and a strong emphasis on foreign investment and privatisation are all hallmarks of this economic policy.
But many analysts, and increasing segments of Syrian society, are worried that this masks the more concerning reality of a government without a long-term vision and lacking the necessary expertise to break Syria out of its economic malaise - both of which are necessary given the country’s financial crisis.
Following 13 years of war, 90% of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, and the nation's GDP has collapsed from $67.5 billion in 2011 to $21.4 billion in 2024, according to the World Bank. Overall reconstruction costs are estimated at around $216 billion. Ziad Arbash, a Professor of Economics who has been consulted by both the previous Assad regime and the current government, says the brain drain caused by the war is hurting the state's ability to form a coherent economic strategy.
"If there was a meeting to discuss an economic matter a decade ago, ten experts could be gathered. Now, you can find a maximum of two people with the relevant qualifications," Arbash told The New Arab . "We have a big shortage in terms of competency in all domains, including economic issues." And whilst this is a concern that predates the present government, there are many issues of its own making as well. Foremost among them is a lack of consultation and transparency. As power concentrates itself around the executive, and civil society is sidelined in favour of a small circle of confidantes, many feel that they are being left out of the future path their country is taking.
Opaque, parallel institutions of power, like the Council for Higher Development, which controls the lucrative Sovereign Wealth Fund, are shrouded in mystery and have led to confusion over who is really making the decisions. Businessmen and industrialists who hold meetings with government officials also complain that these consultations are viewed as a mere formality by those in power and are sometimes sceptical that those they are talking to even hold any influence over government policy. Unlike in Rwanda, which in 2000, after years of consultation with different layers of society, announced 'Vision 2020', an exhaustive development programme that aimed to transform the nation into a middle-income country with a set of verifiable goals, the Syrian government has published no such plan or started the consultation process to form one.
This means that Syrian society has been given no yardsticks by which to evaluate its government's performance . Arbash is unequivocal in his overall assessment of government policy so far. "Since 8 December 2024 [when the new regime assumed power] until now, there is no overall plan, no vision," he told TNA . "Why do we not have a plan? Because then it would show who is working well and who isn't. In terms of transparency and accountability, nothing is clear.”
Mouayad Albonni, a senior consultant at the Karam Shaar Advisory, comes to a slightly different conclusion. He argues that the government does have a strategy for the future, just that it is deeply flawed.
"The government's long-term goal is that by prioritising short-term goals like stabilisation, security, and foreign investment, it will lay the groundwork for massive international backing, and the money and effects of these mega-projects will eventually trickle down to benefit the whole of society," he explains. "The problem with this is that in other, more developed countries, with more effective and entrenched institutions, trickle-down economics has shown very little sign of having a positive impact on the majority of society." His concerns are being mirrored by factory owners and businessmen who feel increasingly sidelined by the government's economic policies. In Aleppo, once Syria's economic heartland, these concerns are being voiced more and more sharply. Sheikh Najjar, a once bustling industrial city just outside Aleppo which before the war housed just under 2,000 companies in its sprawling warehouses and factories, is struggling to regain its former productivity.
Ahmad al-Aysa, owner of a large string factory there, blames the government's policies. "Mohammad Nidal al-Shaar [the Minister of Economy] is doing a terrible job," he complains. "Electricity prices have increased, fuel prices have risen, and this increases our production costs," he adds.
"At the same time, goods are coming in from China much more than they were before. And they are being imported at a lower quality but cheaper price. The government is not imposing enough import duties on these goods, and it is harming local businesses."
Imad Taha al-Qassem, a business owner and President of the Aleppo Chamber of Industry, is more sanguine in his assessment.
He agrees that the current situation is stark, but he insists that with time it will improve. "The government made some mistakes at the start with custom fees. But they are doing the best they can. They are new," he told TNA . He also acknowledges that, as poverty entrenches itself throughout the country, many can't afford to wait . "Recently, the government got our oil fields back from the SDF. But these plants also do not work. After one or two years, we can rebuild and restart. But in another two years, what can we do? Without help from big countries, it becomes more difficult." However, it remains to be seen if the reliance on foreign investment as a silver bullet to kickstart an economic recovery will bear dividends. Arbash concludes that a lot can change, and quickly. With both the internal and regional political landscape in a state of constant flux, "the situation can develop dramatically in both a negative and positive sense," he says.
For the average Syrian, they will be hoping that it proves to be the latter. Jahan de Bellaigue is a freelance journalist based in Beirut, covering conflict, economic and cultural issues Follow him on Instagram: jdb0380