Lebanon and Israel began direct negotiations in Washington on Thursday in a bid to end decades of conflict, as Israel's ongoing offensive and occupation of southern Lebanon threaten to derail efforts toward a lasting ceasefire.
While both sides have said they want to reach a peace deal, they enter the talks with sharply different priorities and demands that analysts warn could quickly lead to an impasse, particularly over the issue of Hezbollah's weapons.
Tel Aviv has vowed to continue its military operations until the Hezbollah group is stripped of its arsenal, a demand that Israel and its ally, the United States, have placed at the top of their agenda.
While significantly weakened since the 2024 war, Hezbollah has continued attacks against Israel, increasingly relying on cheaper drones that have managed to bypass Israeli defences and pose a new challenge to Israeli forces.
Beirut is pushing for an end to Israeli attacks and a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon before moving to other contentious issues. A real ceasefire unlikely Ahead of the two-day meetings, Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, said Israel would "never agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon while allowing Hezbollah to rearm".
In comments to Israeli news site Walla , Leiter, who is leading Israel's delegation, said his government was prepared to pursue a broader political track with Lebanon on the condition that Hezbollah is "dismantled".
A US-brokered truce announced on 17 April and later extended has failed to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which have since that date killed hundreds of people.
"We need to see in practice how the Lebanese government strengthens the army and acts on the ground," Leiter said, adding: "We will identify a specific region with the Lebanese government and plan with it how to clear it of Hezbollah weapons."
The ambassador said discussions with the Lebanese delegation would proceed along two tracks: a "peace treaty" track and a "security" track. He argued that Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon was linked to Hezbollah’s armed activities.
Israel’s Channel 15 also reported that the US administration is pressuring Lebanon to repeal a 1955 Israel boycott law as part of efforts to advance the talks.
Hezbollah MP Ihab Hamadeh launched a scathing attack on the negotiations ahead of Thursday’s meetings, describing them as an "alliance" between the Lebanese government and Israel.
Speaking to The New Arab , Hamadeh reiterated Hezbollah’s rejection of the talks , saying they came at the expense of the Lebanese people, particularly the Shia community, which has borne the brunt of the war in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. 'Two realities' Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has signalled a willingness to help find a solution regarding Hezbollah’s weapons.
During a meeting with the US ambassador to Lebanon, Berri, Hezbollah's ally, urged the envoy to help secure a full ceasefire in Lebanon and "leave the rest to me," according to Almodon .
Last year, the Lebanese government pushed to disarm Hezbollah and other armed groups in an unprecedented move aimed at establishing a state monopoly over weapons.
By the end of 2025, Beirut announced that the first phase of the process south of the Litani River had been completed. Israel, however, dismissed the claim and continued its attacks, accusing Hezbollah of rearming.
Hezbollah’s arsenal has long divided Lebanon politically. The Iran-backed group insists its weapons are necessary to resist Israeli occupation and attacks.
Analysts question whether the negotiations can succeed as long as the Lebanese government lacks the authority to disarm Hezbollah.
"There are parallel tracks of diplomatic negotiations and military operations that are not converging," journalist and geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron told The New Arab .
"The reality on the ground in south Lebanon and the region is not conducive for any breakthrough," he said.
Macaron argued that the Lebanese government does not hold the security file in southern Lebanon, making it nearly impossible to implement any agreement with Israel without Hezbollah’s consent.
"The Lebanese government is being put in a position to choose between Israeli attacks or confronting Hezbollah," he added. Talks could collapse Former Lebanese foreign minister Adnan Mansour shares Macaron’s scepticism.
"When a state enters negotiations, it must have clear goals and demands. At a minimum, those demands should include protecting its sovereignty, securing an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, and releasing detainees," he told The New Arab .
Mansour argued that Lebanon was entering the talks with little leverage and criticised Israel’s repeated invocation of "self-defence" while occupying Lebanese territory.
He also criticised a joint statement issued after the first round of talks in April, saying it failed to recognise Lebanon’s right to defend itself against Israeli attacks.
"The negotiations must take Lebanon’s demands into account, but I don’t think Israel will give Lebanon what it wants," he said. "Israel is seeking broader concessions, and that will make reaching a solution difficult."
Ideally, Mansour said, a peace arrangement could be reached with international backing, ensuring Israel abides by a ceasefire agreement. Such a deal, he argued, would amount to a mutual understanding preventing attacks by either side.
"A peace agreement can happen if there are guarantees that Israel will halt its attacks," he said. "Peace cannot happen if Israel wants to impose its demands on Lebanon."
Mansour also rejected Israeli claims that its continued military operations in Lebanon were solely linked to Hezbollah’s weapons, pointing to Israeli attacks and occupation of land in neighbouring Syria, which he said posed no threat to Israel.
"Lebanon has the right to demand an Israeli military withdrawal just as Israel calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament," he said.
Asked about Lebanon’s current deadlock between Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and Israel’s continued occupation and attacks, Mansour said he believed the talks would eventually collapse.
"Israel will raise the ceiling of its demands so high in Washington that the negotiations will hit a dead end," he said, warning that this could lead to further Israeli escalation against Lebanon.