While much of the world’s attention on the US-Israel-Iran conflict has centred on human suffering, disruptions to the global economy, and shifting geopolitical dynamics, China has quietly remained on the sidelines, studying the turmoil and leveraging it to its advantage.
Beijing’s approach demonstrates the strategic utility of its non-interference doctrine , allowing it to extract lessons and consolidate influence without firing a single shot. In many respects, China has been a beneficiary of this war, with the conflict accelerating its ascent on the global stage and expanding its clout in the Middle East.
By observing American military operations, China has gained invaluable insights into US tactics, carrier group rotations, missile defence systems, and the operational use of AI in targeting. These lessons are poised to inform Chinese strategic planning in potential future conflicts, including a Taiwan scenario.
Chinese officials also recognise how the United States has shifted military assets from East Asia to the Middle East, unsettling Washington’s close allies such as South Korea and Japan while easing challenges for China in its more immediate neighbourhood.
The conflict has also yielded economic and strategic benefits for China. Regional disruptions have accelerated the adoption of Chinese technologies and strengthened the yuan as a trade currency, enhancing Beijing’s leverage over energy and commerce.
Meanwhile, China has insulated itself from energy market shocks through diversified imports, robust strategic reserves, and a strong push into renewables and nuclear power.
Its dominance in global solar, wind, battery, and electric vehicle supply chains positions China to capitalise on the global shift toward energy independence. Diplomacy in the spotlight On the diplomatic front, China has successfully cast itself as a calm and predictable global actor. This is a sharp contrast to the erratic image of the United States. This posture bolsters Beijing’s long-term influence, allowing it to cultivate durable, transactional relationships while reinforcing its credibility in international negotiations.
By remaining measured and methodical, China has strengthened its bargaining position with the United States and other powers alike.
“China has been able to expose the deficiencies of the US-led global order without incurring any of the costs associated with the conflict,” said Dr Javad Heiran-Nia, the director of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran, in an interview with The New Arab .
“It leverages this war as a real-time demonstration of how the prevailing American-dominated international system fosters instability and volatility, thereby reinforcing its core argument in favour of a multipolar world order and the necessity of transitioning toward such a framework,” he added.
“Beijing frames this war as symptomatic of a unipolar order in decline under US stewardship.”
In line with China’s broader foreign policy, Beijing has consistently emphasised the importance of respecting national sovereignty, non-interference, and the avoidance of force, while promoting political and diplomatic solutions under UN-led processes, noted Dr Heiran-Nia. Costs and risks Yet even as China has reaped advantages, the war has imposed certain economic pressures. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up global energy and fertiliser prices, temporarily straining Chinese manufacturers and farmers.
Rising energy costs squeeze export-oriented industries and increase agricultural input costs, potentially affecting spring planting cycles. While largely energy-secure, China could face market stress and slower industrial growth if disruptions persist, particularly in energy-intensive sectors. Geopolitical instability also carries financial risks in regions where China exports heavily.
“Intensified hostilities and growing regional instability, especially threats to freedom of navigation, carry negative implications for China,” noted Dr Heiran-Nia.
“The potential [long-term] closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the pressure exerted by the US on Chinese vessels transiting the strait, even those previously granted exemptions by Iran, underscores that higher levels of conflict could jeopardise China's vital interests and undermine its hedging and risk-mitigation strategy in the region.”
Borzou Daragahi, a longtime Middle East correspondent and founder of Badlands (a newsletter and podcast about global affairs), told TNA that while the impact of this war on China’s national interests has been “double-pronged,” the continuation of the conflict is likely to be harmful overall.
"On the one hand, China views the instability as detrimental to its interest in obtaining cheap energy to fuel its economy. On the other hand, the war is further weakening and discrediting China's top global adversary. At this point, however, the damage to the US reputation is done. Any prolongation of the war will do lasting damage to the world economy. China wants the war to be over,” he told TNA . Balancing Tehran and Gulf Arab monarchies The “No War, No Peace” arrangement that seems to have emerged this month through Pakistani mediators may endure for now, even if its longer-term sustainability is highly doubtful. A continued ceasefire, which does not open the Strait of Hormuz or lift any sanctions on Tehran, would allow Iran to rearm after recent hostilities.
This situation places Beijing in the delicate position of calibrating support for Tehran. Such decisions risk provoking tensions with the United States and Gulf Arab monarchies.
Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members since 28 February have reinforced Gulf Arab perceptions of Tehran as a serious threat. China seeks to balance its relationships in the region, supporting Tehran while maintaining strong ties with key Gulf states.
Perhaps this effort was highlighted by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on 20 April, during which the two leaders discussed bilateral relations, and Xi emphasised the importance of opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Although it is difficult to read too much into a single call, the fact that Xi has not had a comparable conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian since the conflict began suggests that Beijing is carefully positioning itself between the Islamic Republic and its Arab neighbours in the Gulf.
This balancing act is not always smooth. On 7 April, China vetoed a UN resolution put forward by Bahrain aimed at coordinating the protection of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing viewed the resolution as biased against Iran and likely to escalate tensions, asserting that the Security Council should promote de-escalation rather than legitimising the use of force.
Such moves will probably sometimes frustrate GCC members and may occasionally ruffle Tehran’s feathers. But they reflect China’s broader strategy of cautious engagement, ensuring it can remain the key economic and diplomatic hub connecting multiple actors in the region.
Regardless, the conflict is likely to draw Iran further under Beijing’s strategic and economic umbrella. “Iran’s status will likely be further entrenched under the Chinese economic and strategic umbrella,” noted Daragahi. “Tehran will be further beholden to China.”
At the same time, with Gulf Arab states increasingly viewing the United States as an unreliable ally, especially given its alignment with Israel’s hardline government and apparent disregard for GCC security concerns, exemplified by Trump’s decision to pursue this war against the advice of Gulf monarchies.
As a result, the Gulf states are likely to diversify their partnerships beyond Washington. China, in particular, is emerging as a major power that they can turn to for greater strategic autonomy and leverage in dealings with the United States.
In short, it is easy to envision this conflict nudging both Iran and the six GCC states toward more China-oriented geopolitical positions. Patience as power The US-Israel-Iran war has proved a strategic windfall for China, allowing it to strengthen its global leverage without the costs of combat.
By learning from American military tactics, shielding itself from energy shocks, and projecting stability, Beijing has enhanced its influence regionally and globally.
Still, these gains are tempered by risk. Prolonged instability threatens China’s energy-dependent economy and export markets.
Yet, even within these constraints, China has transformed a distant conflict into an opportunity to advance national interests, promote a multipolar world, and assert its position as a global power capable of shaping outcomes without firing a single shot.
In observing the vulnerabilities of its rivals, Beijing demonstrates that patience and strategic foresight can yield far greater rewards than direct engagement in war. Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero Edited by Charlie Hoyle