The Trump-backed Board of Peace's proposed Gaza roadmap is unlikely to bring about an end to the war, analysts say, as the continued stalemate over Hamas's disarmament chips away at the ceasefire.
The plan, outlined by the board's Gaza envoy Nickolay Mladenov this week, featured many of the key points in the Trump administration's original peace plan, including the disarmament of armed Palestinian groups, the replacement of Israeli forces with an international peacekeeping force and the beginning of reconstruction.
In a statement to the UN Security Council on Thursday, Mladenov stressed that the ceasefire "cannot advance through Palestinian obligations alone".
But in its report, the board called Hamas's refusal to decommission its weapons the "principle obstacle" to peace and declined to impose conditions on Israel over aid, military strikes and the withdrawal of troops.
"Mladenov and the Board of Peace are making any progress in Gaza entirely conditioned on the question of decommissioning," Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told The New Arab .
"The way the plan is structured makes it seem that the Palestinians have to fulfil Israel's war goals by their own hands before Israel will give them anything," he said.
"And there are no clear guarantees or weight of responsibility on the Israelis to keep their side of the bargain."
The first phase of the truce – brokered in October by the US, Qatar and Egypt – saw the release of the final hostages held in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israel.
It was supposed to result in a complete end to hostilities, an end to the aid blockade, and the start of negotiations over permanently ending the war.
But Israel has failed to uphold its end of the agreement, continuing to prevent the entry of vital aid and launching near-daily attacks across the strip.
More than 880 Palestinians have been killed and almost 2,650 others injured in Israeli fire during the ceasefire, according to the Gaza health ministry.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have slowly expanded their zone of control inside Gaza from just over half of the territory at the start of the truce to more than 60 percent.
Despite this, the Trump administration announced in January that it was moving to the second phase of the ceasefire and called for Hamas to surrender its weapons.
Talks between Mladenov and Hamas have failed to make progress, with the group refusing to discuss the subject until Israel abides by the first phase of the truce. Hamas reacted angrily to the board's report, accusing it of adopting Israel's narrative and failing to hold Israel to account.
"The Board of Peace is a show," Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations, told The New Arab .
"As long as Hamas refuses to disarm – and it will continue to refuse – the Israelis will stay along the yellow line. Rather than implement a 15-point plan to implement a 20-point plan, it is likely that there will be more combat," he said.
Israeli officials have in recent days floated a return to full-scale war if Hamas does not give up its weapons. Officials quoted in local media have said Washington may give its approval for a renewed offensive if the impasse continues.
"The prospects are really quite grim," said Iraqi. The Israeli government is likely to use Hamas's refusal to disarm as a pretext to further escalate the conflict and could in the coming weeks tighten the blockade or ramp up military operations, he said.
Even under the status quo, the humanitarian crisis in the strip is expected to further deteriorate without a full resumption of aid.
Israel's two-year offensive has left most of Gaza in ruins, forcing most of the population to live in displacement camps without access to healthcare or sanitation.
"The risk is that the deteriorating status quo becomes permanent," Mladenov said in his address to the Security Council.
This would leave Gaza's two million inhabitants trapped in Gaza's ruins with no reconstruction, and dependent on aid, he said.