Israel's parliament is expected to vote on Wednesday on a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing the next national election forward by a few weeks, which surveys predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose. When is the ballot? An election date is yet to be set. Israel is supposed to hold elections every four years, but early elections have often been held. The last election was in November 2022, and the next ballot is due no later than 27 October.
If the Knesset votes to dissolve, members of parliament will then have to agree on a date. Political commentators in Israel say an election is likely in the first half of September, but it could also be held nearer to the late October deadline. Why is the Knesset voting to disband? The vote is coming up now because an ultra-Orthodox Jewish faction, traditionally a close political ally of Netanyahu, announced this month that it no longer sees Netanyahu as a partner and will seek early elections.
The ultra-Orthodox leaders said they were doing this because a coalition promise to pass a law that would exempt their community from mandatory service in Israel's conscript military was not being kept. At the same time, opposition parties have long sought to topple Netanyahu's government.
An attempt to do so last June failed, and success this time, even if it would only bring the election forward by a few weeks, could inject momentum into the opposition's campaign and limit the coalition's ability to promote any contentious legislation until then.
In a bid to control the process, the coalition submitted its own bill on 13 May to dissolve the Knesset . What happens next? If the bill passes the initial vote on dissolving the Knesset, it will go to committee, where an election date will be agreed upon. It then goes back for final approval, with the third and final vote requiring a 61 majority of 120 Knesset members. The process could be swift or take many weeks. What do the polls show? Less than a year after a 2022 political comeback at the head of Israel's fundamentalist right-wing government, Netanyahu's security credentials were left in tatters since October 2023.
Polls have since consistently shown Netanyahu's governing coalition falling far short of a parliamentary majority. However, there is also a chance opposition parties will fail to form a coalition, leaving Netanyahu at the head of an interim government until the political stalemate is broken.
This has happened before. Before the 2022 election, Israel was caught in a series of inconclusive elections, holding five ballots in less than four years. Who's running against Netanyahu? Netanyahu's main challenger is Naftali Bennett, a former aide who ousted Israel's longest-serving leader in a 2021 election and became prime minister himself.
The right-wing Bennett has joined forces with centre-left Opposition Leader Yair Lapid to form a new party, 'Together', now neck and neck with Netanyahu's Likud. Another contender gaining in the polls is former military chief and centrist cabinet minister Gadi Eizenkot.
They are all running on similar campaign platforms, seeking to mobilise swing voters disappointed by Netanyahu, with messages of healing divisions and getting the country back on track after the trauma of October 7 and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that have hit Israel's economy and international standing. What other factors are in play? Netanyahu still faces a long-running corruption trial and a bid by Israel's President Isaac Herzog to reach a plea deal in the case, which could see the 76-year-old Netanyahu retiring from politics as part of the deal.
Such a deal has been floated since his trial began six years ago, but it is unclear whether he would accept it. Netanyahu's health could also be an issue. He recently disclosed that he was successfully treated for prostate cancer, and in 2023, he was fitted with a pacemaker.
Israel also launched a genocidal war on Gaza, and expanded its attacks to include Syria, Lebanon and Iran, fronts that remain volatile with possible impact on an election.