Iraq’s political deadlock over the prime ministership has entered its fifth month, with mounting pressure on former premier Nouri al-Maliki to withdraw his candidacy amid US opposition and shifting positions within the ruling pro-Iran alliance.
The crisis, which has persisted since elections in November, has been driven largely by Maliki’s insistence on remaining the candidate of the Coordination Framework, the coalition of pro-Iran parties that holds power in Baghdad.
However, recent regional developments, including the US-Israeli war on Iran, have prompted key factions within the alliance to reconsider their stance.
Political sources close to the Coordination Framework told The New Arab that most factions in the group now recognise the need to withdraw Maliki’s nomination to avoid tension with Washington.
"New developments at the regional security level, and the failure to resolve the crises of the presidency and premiership in Iraq, have pushed most Iraqi parties, particularly Shia ones, to reposition themselves and redraw political options in line with the new reality the region will face," the sources said.
They added that most factions within the alliance are now left with one option: replacing Maliki, arguing that he represents a challenge not only to Iraq but also to neighbouring and allied states.
Over the past two months, several pro-Iran parties have sought to block Maliki’s candidacy, including the Hikma Movement led by Ammar al-Hakim and the Sadiqoun Movement led by Qais al-Khazali.
Hussein al-Shayhani, a member of Sadiqoun’s political bureau, said the balance within the Coordination Framework has shifted.
"Coordination Framework forces consist of 12 political entities. When Maliki was nominated, two opposed him… but the situation has now changed," he told The New Arab . "Nine factions now reject Maliki, while only three support his candidacy."
He added that the alliance may return to a broader list of candidates "after abandoning Nouri al-Maliki for national necessities and higher interests".
Despite this, Maliki has refused to step aside. In an interview with AFP , he said: "I have no intention of withdrawing at all… No one has the right to say 'do not elect this person and elect that one.'"
He added: "This nomination was agreed upon… there will be no withdrawal, and I will go to the end."
Maliki’s candidacy has also drawn sharp criticism from US President Donald Trump, who warned in January that Washington would cut off support to Iraq if he returned to power.
"The last time Maliki was in power, the country sank into poverty and total chaos. That must not happen again… if he is elected, the United States will not provide any assistance to Iraq in the future," Trump wrote.
During his previous tenure as prime minister, between 2006 and 2014, Maliki was frequently accused of stirring up sectarianism for political purposes, for example using violence against Sunni protesters opposed to his rule.
Iraqi political figures, including Hakim, Khazali and Mohammed al-Halbousi, have also called for Maliki to be sidelined.
However, senior figures within Maliki’s State of Law coalition insist his chances remain "strong". A recent Coordination Framework meeting expected to address his candidacy was postponed amid escalating security tensions, including strikes targeting Iraqi forces and allied groups.
Sources said the alliance remains broadly cohesive, but the dispute over Maliki has deepened, with Hakim reportedly threatening to withdraw if support continues.
Iraqi political analyst Abdullah al-Rikabi said Maliki’s nomination had been a mistake, arguing Iraq needed a figure capable of maintaining balanced relations with regional and international actors.
"The Iraqi premiership is not merely an internal matter but has major implications for foreign relations, as well as economic and financial policy," he told The New Arab .
He added that Maliki’s support base continues to shrink amid a rapidly changing regional landscape shaped by US pressure.