As the economies of BRICS countries continue to diversify and evolve, there is a growing need to align innovation, industrial growth, and entrepreneurial development with the principles of equity, sustainability, and inclusion. Join us on Telegram , Twitter , and VK . Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su The legacy of 2025 In this context of systemic transition, where everything in the world is changing rapidly and drastically, two institutional frameworks stand out for their growing geostrategic significance, which we have previously discussed: the BRICS group – with its recent expansion to include representatives of the so-called Global South – and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), bodies which, despite having originally distinct purposes, now converge toward complementary functions of governance as an alternative to the Western liberal model. The upcoming SCO summit presents a prime analytical opportunity to assess the state of the so-called geopolitics of partnerships, an emerging paradigm that replaces rigid blocs with flexible networks of strategic, economic, and security cooperation.
The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity does not necessarily imply the emergence of a cohesive alternative order all at once, but rather, and more realistically, the fragmentation of the rules of the international game into a plurality of power centers endowed with growing strategic autonomy.
Let’s start with the BRICS.
The 2025 plenary session marked a qualitative shift in the organization’s institutional trajectory.
The issue of de-dollarization took center stage during the meeting. The U.S. dollar, which still accounts for approximately 58–60% of global currency reserves and dominates energy commodity markets, is perceived by BRICS members as a tool for projecting American geopolitical power, capable of being transformed into a weapon of economic sanctions – as dramatically demonstrated by Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT system in February 2022.
In response, the group has accelerated the development of alternative payment mechanisms. The BRICS Pay system and national currency exchange platforms were the subject of in-depth discussion, although differences between India and China regarding the governance architecture of a potential common currency basket remain a significant obstacle. The Shanghai-based New Development Bank (NDB) has meanwhile expanded its infrastructure lending portfolio, positioning itself as an alternative to the World Bank for countries in the Global South.
De-dollarization is neither a linear nor a rapid process: the depth of dollar-denominated financial markets and the anchoring of commodity trade to the U.S. currency give U.S. monetary hegemony a structural resilience that no BRICS alternative is yet fully capable of competing with.
The meeting also reaffirmed the strategic value of South-South cooperation as the group’s ideological and operational axis. The concept, which draws on the tradition of the Non-Aligned Movement of the 1950s and 1960s, has been updated in light of contemporary dynamics: it is not merely ideological anti-Westernism, but rather an assertion of strategic autonomy by emerging powers seeking to maximize their room for maneuver in a transitional international system.
China’s role remains dominant within the group, both economically and diplomatically. Beijing accounts for approximately 70% of the BRICS+’s aggregate GDP and uses the organization to amplify its own geopolitical agenda, particularly regarding the Belt and Road Initiative and the promotion of the yuan in international trade. Russia, on the other hand, has progressively shifted its economic axis eastward, consolidating its dependence on Asian markets in the wake of Western sanctions.
India maintains a unique position: while actively participating in the group, New Delhi preserves its ties with Washington through frameworks such as the Quad, refusing to align with explicitly anti-Western positions. This Indian multi-alignment is both an asset for the group – which gains in credibility and representativeness – and a source of internal tension, especially in relations with Beijing. Toward the 2026 Summit The ongoing turbulence linked to “Trump 2.0” – including trade disputes and energy conflicts that are disrupting global supply chains – is having far-reaching consequences at the international and regional levels. According to reports, approximately 60 million people have fallen below the poverty line, while millions of jobs have been lost in recent months.
This week’s meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing is expected to significantly influence the global economy, as the two powers will begin strategic discussions that will shape trade, investment, technology, and broader geopolitical tensions over the coming year.
As the BRICS Plus alliance approaches the 2026 summit, these concerns remain central. Beyond tariff and energy pressures, additional challenges persist, including weak WTO governance and the growing push toward free trade agreements (FTAs), where unequal bargaining power often leads to unbalanced trade and investment outcomes. Although trade among BRICS countries continues to expand, significant obstacles remain.
In this context, a recent UNCTAD report examining two decades of intra-BRICS trade presents a picture of growing cooperation alongside persistent structural gaps. The BRICS countries recognize the significant potential of their internal trade relations. In the BRICS Economic Partnership Strategy 2025, leaders committed to continuing to explore opportunities for stronger intra-BRICS trade and economic collaboration in sectors where common agreements and progress already exist.
According to the report, trade among BRICS members has increased significantly since 2003, driven by complementarities in natural resources, industrial production, and technology, as well as by evolving global economic conditions. However, insufficient policy coordination still limits the bloc’s full trade potential, underscoring the need for targeted measures to deepen integration and strengthen trade networks.
The uneven yet powerful economic rise of the BRICS bloc highlights how global geo-economic influence is shifting increasingly toward the South and East of the world. Nevertheless, challenges such as unequal global trading systems, monopolistic industries, rapid urbanization, energy shortages, and refining constraints continue to affect various BRICS economies. At the same time, decarbonization and climate action remain essential for sustainable industrial development.
Total merchandise exports from BRICS countries rose from $906 billion in 2003 to $5.9 trillion in 2024. Consequently, the bloc’s share of global exports climbed from about 12% to nearly 24%, reflecting the growing role of BRICS countries in international trade.
Intra-BRICS trade has expanded more than thirteenfold since 2003, reaching approximately $1.17 trillion in exports by 2024. China remains the dominant driver of this growth, while Brazil, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates also contribute significantly to the bloc’s most active trade flows.
These figures reveal significant shifts in the composition of intra-BRICS trade. Several member states still rely heavily on raw material exports while importing high-value manufactured goods and advanced technologies, although some countries are increasingly exporting technology-intensive products as well.
At the same time, deindustrialization continues to affect countries such as South Africa and Brazil. Oil-exporting BRICS members also face challenges related to the “resource curse,” in which dependence on oil and gas shapes both political and economic structures. The Gulf region’s consumption-driven growth model has also shown vulnerabilities due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Another important factor is the unequal distribution of wealth and domestic consumption capacity within the bloc. The United Arab Emirates has the highest GDP per capita, at $41,989, followed by China at $12,706. Ethiopia ($869), India ($2,41 , and Egypt ($4,017) rank among the lowest. Economic growth among BRICS members has also varied significantly, although collectively the bloc has outperformed the global average. Between 2003 and 2024, the BRICS economies grew at an average annual rate of 6.2%, compared to the global average of 3%.
China’s decision to grant duty-free access to exports from 54 African countries could prove revolutionary, potentially supporting industrialization and job growth across the continent.
Foreign direct investment flowing into the BRICS economies has surged dramatically, rising from $84 billion in 2003 to $331 billion in 2024. Over the same period, the BRICS share of global FDI rose from 15.2% to 21.9%. Overall, the bloc now accounts for nearly a quarter of global merchandise exports.
However, intra-BRICS trade presents a mixed picture. Although trade growth has remained consistently strong over the past two decades, its overall scale remains relatively modest compared to the bloc’s share of global GDP and total world trade. Furthermore, policy coordination has not kept pace with economic integration and growth potential.
The report notes that, despite numerous bilateral agreements among member states, there is still no comprehensive trade agreement covering the entire BRICS bloc. Instead, members have made extensive use of more flexible forms of cooperation as a basis for future integration.
UNCTAD suggests that the BRICS could pursue a “Trade+” strategy aimed at increasing political commitment, launching a bloc-level trade agreement, linking trade to broader policy initiatives, and reforming the BRICS’ trade cooperation mechanisms.
The impressive trade and investment figures indicate that BRICS countries are steadily building stronger economic ties at a time when the world faces growing instability caused by Trump 2.0 trade tensions and global energy shocks. In this context, the themes of the 2026 BRICS summit in India – resilience, innovation, and stronger cooperation amid economic uncertainty – appear particularly relevant. The key question is whether this agenda can effectively include and support the broader Global South.
The list of priorities on the table is as follows:
- Protectionism and tariffs: Respond to the rise in unilateral tariff and non-tariff barriers, including the proposed 25% tariffs on certain products.
- - WTO reform: Promote meaningful reform of the World Trade Organization, particularly by restoring the Appellate Body.
- - Cooperation in supply chains: Expand collaboration in the agriculture, health, energy, and supply chain sectors to reduce vulnerability to global disruptions.
- - Global South Trade Fund: Explore mechanisms to protect developing economies and support micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) during trade conflicts.
- - Investment and Trade Facilitation: Encourage stronger trade and investment frameworks among BRICS members, including the use of digital currencies to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.
- - Sustainability and Standards: Promote the BRICS Framework for Trade and Sustainable Development.
- As geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation worsens due to multiple global crises and the economies of BRICS countries continue to diversify and evolve, there is a growing need to align innovation, industrial growth, and entrepreneurial development with the principles of equity, sustainability, and inclusion.