In early May, the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party submitted a bill calling for the formal revocation of the Oslo Accords, the framework governing relations between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) since 1993.
Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has postponed a vote on the bill, citing the need for further review, Palestinian analysts say that the proposal itself signals a broader shift in Israeli thinking since the Gaza war.
Since 7 October 2023, Israel’s political establishment has moved towards formalising the rejection of a Palestinian state while consolidating permanent control over the occupied West Bank and asserting security dominance over Gaza.
While the Oslo Accords have long ceased to function on the ground, they remain a legal and political constraint on de jure annexation , and their collapse would have profound implications. A new reality Israel’s far-right parties viewed the Gaza war as presenting a rare opportunity to fundamentally reshape the Palestinian political landscape .
Limor Son Har-Melech, the Otzma Yehudit lawmaker who introduced the bill, argued that the Oslo Accords had turned "the Land of Israel into a bargaining chip" and claimed that political conditions inside Israel now allow for steps that were previously impossible.
Abdul Majid Sweilem, a Palestinian political analyst from the West Bank, believes the Israeli far right is no longer merely threatening Oslo rhetorically, but actively attempting to create a new reality in the occupied territories.
"For the Israeli right wing, cancelling Oslo is not symbolic. It is a gateway to removing any legal or political obstacle to annexing large parts of the West Bank," Sweilem told The New Arab .
He said influential figures in Netanyahu's coalition, particularly Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see the continued existence of the Palestinian Authority as incompatible with their long-term vision of imposing full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank.
Although Netanyahu delayed the legislation amid fears of an international backlash and diplomatic consequences, Sweilem believes the idea itself remains firmly alive within the government. The slow death of Oslo The Oslo Accords were supposed to lead to the creation of a Palestinian state, but have been moribund on the ground for years.
The agreement envisioned a five-year transitional period leading to negotiations on final-status issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and settlements.
They also established the Palestinian Authority (PA) and divided the West Bank into Areas A, B, and C, with Area C, comprising around 60 per cent of the territory, remaining under full Israeli control.
In the decades after, the settler population in the West Bank and East Jerusalem has quadrupled , standing at nearly 700,000, while the number of settlements has increased from 128 in 1993 to over 300 in 2026.
Since the Gaza war, there has been an unprecedented rise in settlement activity, with around 60 new settlements approved and more than 100 settler outposts established. Tens of thousands of Palestinians, meanwhile, have been displaced by Israeli military operations across the West Bank.
During April alone, Israeli military forces carried out 1,637 attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, including 540 by settlers under the protection of the army, according to Muayyad Shaaban, head of the Palestinian Commission Against the Wall and Settlements in the West Bank.
"The settlers attempted to establish 21 new outposts during the same period, many aimed at seizing agricultural land," he told The New Arab . For Palestinians, these developments reinforce the belief that Israel has already spent years hollowing out the Oslo Accords before attempting to formally dismantle them. What the collapse of Oslo means for the PA If Oslo formally collapses, the Palestinian Authority could face an existential crisis .
The PA itself was created under the accords, and its political, legal, and security structures remain deeply tied to the agreement. Palestinian analysts warn that revoking Oslo could dismantle the framework underpinning Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank.
Ahmed Rafiq Awad, a Palestinian political analyst from Ramallah, believes Israel benefited enormously from Oslo by shifting much of the administrative and security burden onto the PA while maintaining ultimate control over the territory.
"Today, parts of the Israeli right believe they can move beyond conflict management toward imposing a final solution through direct control and annexation," Awad told The New Arab .
He said the collapse of Oslo could push Israel toward reintroducing direct civil administration in parts of the West Bank or replacing the PA with fragmented local governing bodies and municipalities lacking national political authority.
A Palestinian Authority official speaking anonymously warned that any unilateral Israeli cancellation of the accords would amount to a complete reversal of political and security arrangements that have existed for more than thirty years.
"The Palestinian Authority cannot continue in its current form if Israel cancels the agreements unilaterally," the official told The New Arab .
He warned that such a move could create a dangerous political and security vacuum across the occupied territories, particularly as Israeli military operations intensify and public trust in Palestinian institutions continues to erode.
The official added that Palestinian leaders have recently increased contacts with Arab and European governments to warn against Israeli annexation plans and settlement expansion.
Fatah, the dominant faction within the Palestinian Authority, would also face a profound political challenge . For decades, the movement's organisational and political structure has been intertwined with the institutions created under Oslo. A formal collapse of the agreement would, according to an official from Fatah, force the movement into a broader identity crisis over the future of the Palestinian national project. Sweilem believes it could struggle to maintain its legitimacy if the PA loses its current function.
"Fatah will find itself facing an entirely different reality because its political and organisational structure has been tied to the authority for decades," he said.
The collapse of Oslo could also revive internal Palestinian debates over leadership succession, national representation, and whether the Palestinian political system requires complete restructuring after years of stagnation. Hamas, Gaza, and fears of a wider regional vacuum Hamas has long opposed the Oslo Accords, viewing them as a failed framework that weakened Palestinian national rights. Yet even within the movement, there are concerns about what a complete collapse of the PA might mean for the West Bank.
A senior Hamas source told The New Arab that Israel effectively dismantled Oslo years ago through settlement expansion, military incursions, and the blockade on Gaza.
"The war showed clearly that Israel no longer believes in any political settlement with the Palestinians, whether with the Palestinian Authority or with the resistance," the source said.
The official acknowledged that Hamas suffered heavy losses during the Gaza war but insisted this had not changed the movement's broader political position.
"Hamas paid a heavy price in lives and military capabilities, but this does not alter the need to rebuild the Palestinian national project on the basis of partnership rather than the security commitments linked to Oslo," the source added.
He stressed that no future arrangements in Gaza or the West Bank would succeed without a broader Palestinian national consensus.
The potential collapse of Oslo also carries major implications for Gaza and ongoing ceasefire efforts.
For years, international actors have linked post-war reconstruction and governance plans in Gaza to the return of the Palestinian Authority to the enclave. However, analysts say Israel itself remains deeply divided over whether it wants the PA back in Gaza at all.
Wissam Afifa, a Palestinian political analyst from Gaza, believes Israel is attempting to separate Gaza's humanitarian and security files from any meaningful political process.
"Israel does not currently want the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza in its traditional form, but it also lacks a stable alternative capable of governing the territory," Afifa told The New Arab .
He argued that a formal collapse of Oslo would further undermine any remaining prospects for a two-state solution and reduce ceasefire agreements to temporary security arrangements vulnerable to collapse at any moment.
At the same time, the erosion of Palestinian political institutions could fuel instability across the West Bank, particularly as armed groups gain influence in refugee camps and Israeli military raids continue.
Security coordination remains one of the most sensitive pillars of Oslo and perhaps one of the few areas where Israel still sees strategic value in maintaining parts of the framework.
Awad noted that security coordination relieves Israel of many costs associated with directly administering millions of Palestinians.
Even if the PA weakens further, he believes Israel may still attempt to preserve some form of local coordination through municipalities or limited field arrangements.
Others, however, argue that growing Palestinian anger and the collapse of trust in the PA could eventually make continued coordination politically unsustainable.
For now, analysts believe that Israel has not made a final decision on fully cancelling Oslo but is steadily moving toward emptying it of substance while reshaping realities on the ground through annexation, settlement expansion, and military control.
For Palestinians, the implications are profound. The Gaza war, the erosion of prospects for statehood, and intensifying Israeli annexation rhetoric have combined to create perhaps the deepest crisis facing the Palestinian political system since Oslo was first signed more than three decades ago.
The central question is no longer simply whether Israel can end Oslo, but what kind of political order will emerge if the framework governing Israeli-Palestinian relations since 1993 finally collapses altogether. Mohammed Omer is a Palestinian writer and journalist from the Gaza Strip, focusing on stories in the occupied Palestinian territories and specialising in Israeli affairs Edited by Charlie Hoyle