If you ask President Donald Trump, he is winning the Iran war, implementing a “comprehensive plan to end the Gaza conflict,” and making serious progress on ending the war in Ukraine.
So much winning — on Main Street, in the Persian Gulf, and everywhere else.
But pollsters will tell you that Americans are largely against the war in Iran and feel the president hasn’t really explained why the U.S. is there. Moreover, 60% now have an unfavorable view of our “iron clad” relations with Israel, and a majority have low trust in Trump’s decision-making regarding Ukraine and Russia.
These are negatives that could obviously affect his party in the approaching midterm elections.
Wary of these problems, Republicans are rushing to try and look attentive to affordability problems exacerbated by America’s war in the Persian Gulf. But they’re still not touching the war itself with a ten foot pole. Not exactly a recipe for political success.
Case in point: Trump and Republicans are pushing for a federal gas tax holiday that they hope will give travelers some relief from skyrocketing gas prices, though experts are doubtful it will.
Meanwhile, President Trump wants Republicans on Capitol Hill to get behind a housing affordability bill that was passed by the Senate in March and that he would like the House to now approve, despite pushback from Democrats and some in his own party. Republicans also hope to pass a massive agriculture spending bill that will ease pressure on American farmers.
Yet this president, his vice president, and their party refuse to publicly acknowledge the root of these problems, namely, the combination of the war in Iran knocking out oil and gas infrastructure and the supply chain blockages caused by the Hormuz Strait closure. AAA notes that U.S. gas prices have gone up 50% since the Iran war began on February 28th. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation in April hit 3.8% , the highest since 2023. Furthermore, American farmers have been impacted by the shortages of fertilizer and fertilizer components due to shipping disruptions. A majority of farmers who responded to a recent Farm Bureau survey said they will not be able to afford fertilizer if they hadn’t bought it before the war, and are struggling with higher diesel costs.
Instead of serving their constituents and facing reality, Republican members are flailing. Not wanting to fall into the president’s crosshairs by asserting their war powers and demanding he declare war or get out (Republicans have stopped every single resolution from passing in that regard), they make excuses and deliver White House talking points. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says that, thanks to Republicans' tax cuts, we will have “a golden age for Main Street.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) insists that those tax cut benefits in the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed last year will be kicking in at any moment.
Unfortunately for them, the midterms are less than six months away. Memorial Day weekend — when gas prices will be most tangible for many — ushers in vacation road trip season just as election season kicks into high gear.
As Trump and Republicans face more questions about the war and the economy, they predictably, and in some ways robotically, invoke the “mushroom cloud” — today’s version of Condoleezza Rice’s justification for the Iraq War in 2003. This time, we must sacrifice our spending power to keep a nuclear weapon out of the hands of Iran.
The president is the lead message force multiplier in this regard. This week, when a reporter asked Trump to clarify what he meant when he said nothing matters other than preventing Iran from getting a bomb, he doubled down.
“The most important thing by far, including whether our stock market — which by the way is at an all-time high — but including whether or not our stock market goes up or down a little bit, the most important thing by far is (that) Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” he charged.
The reporter followed up. “What about the pressure on Americans and prices right now? How concerned are you about Americans, how they're feeling about the pay for food?”
Trump responded: “Are you listening to me? Every American understands, and they just had a poll, like 85%, which is surprising…they understand that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
Republicans have taken his cue. “People are worried about price increases. I hear from ag producers about fertilizer costs, and from consumers about gas prices,” Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said at Politico’s Security Summit on Wednesday.
“But I also believe people have a deep understanding of the threat this country faces,” she continued. “If Iran becomes a nuclear nation capable of reaching the United States — and they have significantly advanced their ballistic missile capabilities; we saw that with their strikes on Diego Garcia, and they can now reach London — it's not a large step to reaching the U.S. People understand that.” “The message I give to Nebraskans and all Americans is: we cannot have a nuclear Iran,” Fischer concluded.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said essentially the same thing on May 1. “There is a trade off right now. I want my family, your family to be safe. It’s terrible we have higher costs, but the trade off is we are going to live in freedom and democracy and won’t have a lunatic dropping a nuclear weapon on us.”
As former National Counter Terrorism Director Joe Kent recently pointed out, American intelligence has determined that the Islamic Republic of Iran had not developed and was not close to developing a nuclear bomb before the current war.
For his part, Trump is unleashing a lot of soundbites that will just come back to bite him and Republicans in the midterms. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” he told reporters this week.
He said, regarding Americans’ financial situations and negotiations with Iran, that they weren’t even a consideration for him. “Not even a little bit,” Trump said.
Trump also echoed Speaker Johnson’s questionable optimism, “I think we're in the golden age right now. You're going to see a golden age like we've never seen before.”
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released this month showed that 61% of Americans thought the U.S. made a mistake in attacking Iran and bringing the country to war.
One could pair that number with an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from May 1-4 that showed 58% of Americans disapproving of Trump’s handling of the economy, with only 34% approving.
These numbers are not mutually exclusive. They are dots that don’t even need much connecting because they are already clear to so many.
The elections are less than six months away. Donald Trump and Republicans are likely to have some real obstacles. They’ll have no one to blame but themselves.