As the US-Israeli war on Iran ground on towards its sixth week, US President Donald Trump took to the airwaves on Wednesday evening to address the nation on the state of the conflict.
Ahead of the speech, commentators speculated about what surprises America's commander-in-chief had in store. Would he declare a unilateral ceasefire and an end to the war? Could he announce the start of a ground invasion in the Arabian Gulf? That both these scenarios remain firmly on the table says a lot about the level of uncertainty unleashed by the most chaotic of US presidencies.
In the end, the president delivered a 20-minute speech that was heavy on rhetoric and light on detail, focusing largely on presenting US military actions as successful rather than addressing quelling global panic about the escalating fallout.
Observers seeking answers would have watched on with a mix of disappointment and concern, as the US president rehearsed a familiar mix of contradictions that appear increasingly detached from reality. 'Back to the Stone Age' The key throughline of the speech focused on the level of destruction being inflicted on Iran's armed forces. The word "decimated" was used four times to describe the state of the country's military following almost five weeks of round-the-clock bombing.
"We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages [sic] where they belong," he declared, before reiterating threats to wipe out the country's electricity grid.
Almost immediately following the speech, Iran provided its daily counterpoint to the president's rhetoric, launching a new round of missile salvoes at Israel and the Gulf.
Trump also leaned heavily on the nuclear issue, repeatedly stating that the war had ensured Iran would never be able to build an atomic weapon. That Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium remains unaccounted for was brushed aside, with Trump claiming that US surveillance capabilities will ensure that the material will never be weaponised. Two weeks? Three weeks? Thirty weeks? Trump refrained from setting out a clear timetable to wind down the war and instead claimed that all of his objectives will be completed "very shortly". The objectives themselves remain an enigma. Having declared regime change as a goal from the outset, he now insists that it was never part of his plans.
The president had earlier in the day speculated that the war could end in " two or three weeks ", though with US troops massing in the region ahead of a potential ground operation, the risk of further escalation and a longer, drawn-out conflict remains high.
Trump officials have in recent weeks offered wildly different assessments of the war's timescale. Nothing in Wednesday night's speech provided any more certainty about how long it might last. No ceasefire updates An update on his administration's push for a ceasefire was absent from the speech, despite officials making a lot of noise in recent days about the prospects of a deal.
Though some countries in the region are attempting to broker an immediate halt to the fighting, there have been few updates since Tehran rejected the US's peace conditions last month. The positions of the two sides remain far apart, with Trump refusing to budge from his pre-war demands and Iran lodging audacious conditions of its own, including reparations and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz . Our war, your problem Neither did he try to calm growing concern around the world about the future status of the Strait of Hormuz, which has now fallen firmly under Iran's control. Instead, he doubled down on past comments suggesting he will wash his hands of the crisis after the war is over.
With Iran now calling the shots over which ships transit the strait (and charging a fee for the privilege) Trump handed the world two options: buy our oil or fix the problem yourselves. This is unlikely to go down well in Asia (which buys most the Middle East's oil and gas), the Gulf (which relies on the strait to sell it) or Europe (which is increasingly feeling the effects of the global energy shock).
More than 30 countries (excluding the US and Israel) are in talks to set up an international naval coalition to open the waterway though it remains unclear what they can do to force Iran to cede control. Lead balloon Markets reacted negatively as the lack of answers offered by the US president pointed to increasing risks of an open-ended conflict.
Oil prices soared almost 7 percent and global stock markets fell as investors reckoned with the prospect of extended disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and a protracted energy crisis.
Iran's effective closure of the critical chokepoint – which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and gas – has triggered a global oil shock, forcing governments across Asia to take emergency measures in anticipation of energy shortages. EU governments , the UK and Australia have also begun preparing for the worst-case scenario as the war drags on.