Following the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February, at least eight countries shut their airspace: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE.
By 3 March, cancellations across seven major Middle East airports had exceeded 12,300 flights .
“The Middle East sits at the crossroads of global air traffic. Any instability in this region immediately affects connectivity between Europe, Asia, and Africa,” Mazen Sammak , a pilot, aviation expert, and president of the Private Pilots Association in Lebanon, told The New Arab .
The Middle East had already become a critical detour route after Russian and Ukrainian airspace closures in February 2022. With this corridor now largely shut too, airlines face a narrowing set of viable paths .
Additionally, the conflict has sent fuel prices soaring, with jet fuel nearly doubling to $197 a barrel as of 20 March, according to IATA .
The fallout has hit major carriers hard. The Lufthansa Group suspended flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv until 31 May, with Eurowings pushing its suspension to October 2026.
British Airways cancelled Abu Dhabi routes until near year-end, while Emirates and Qatar Airways have reduced to skeleton repatriation schedules.
The question now is whether the industry will absorb this shock or carry permanent scars, and whether a crisis rooted in the Middle East could ultimately redraw the map of global aviation . Rerouting financial pressures Few corridors matter more to global aviation than the Middle East’s airspace. In 2025, an estimated 67 million passengers connected through the region, accounting for nearly 10% of all global passenger traffic.
“Airlines are routing further north through Central Asia or south via North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula,” Laith Rashid , an Airbus A320 pilot based in Saudi Arabia, told TNA .
Currently, flight routes between the East and the West are bottlenecked through temporary safer corridors, like those in Azerbaijan and Oman, Rashid added.
“This increases both flight time and fuel consumption,” he said. “On some of the busiest Europe to Asia routes, flight times have gone up by one to three hours.” Fadi Ramadan , a Global Aviation Iraq Pilot based in Cyprus, explained that a flight from Beirut to Amman would regularly take 45 minutes but now takes around two hours due to new routes that avoid missile paths.
“Fuel costs are on the rise due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, which means higher ticket prices. This is a domino effect,” Ramadan told TNA .
Rising fuel costs and higher operational costs associated with longer routes have become a central driver of financial pressure. The top 20 global airlines , including Qatar Airways and Emirates, are estimated to have lost around $53 billion due to disruption and higher operating costs. With costs rising across multiple areas, airlines have begun passing the burden onto passengers, with ticket prices increasing by up to 560% globally.
“Every additional minute in the air translates into higher fuel burn and tighter margins,” Sammak explained. “Fuel is one of the main components of an airline ticket price, accounting for roughly 25 to 40 percent.”
He added that insurance companies have applied much higher war risk premiums, especially in a region where rockets and drones are used.
Rising costs are forcing airlines to rethink their operations. “They need to prioritise fuel-efficient aircraft. Larger carriers are better positioned because they have the cash to manage these challenges,” Sammak said.
“Normally, airlines use fuel hedging, agreeing in advance to buy fuel at fixed prices to protect against market volatility.”
He emphasised that the situation was especially difficult for smaller carriers, which deteriorate if unused for a long time.
Aviation intelligence firm IBA warns the crisis will widen the gap between financially stronger airlines and weaker operators.
“Specifically for Iraq, there are a lot of small airlines that serve regional needs, like pilgrimage to Najaf and other destinations, that are not equipped to last long periods of time without flying,” said Ramadan.
“Airspace closure also affects other national revenues. Iraq loses around $270,000 a day from overflying fees alone,” added Ramadan. “The same applies to Qatar, Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain.”
Rerouting drives up crew costs through additional flight hours, explained Sammak. It also increases maintenance exposure and triggers passenger compensation for missed connections, elevating the financial burden on airlines already operating on thin margins. Flying through uncertainty For pilots, the shift from routine to volatility has also been sharp.
“Every day of uncertainty adds stress. I don’t know when this war might end or when I will fly again,” Ramadan said.
He pointed out that pilots now face the risk of losing “currency,” an aviation term for the minimum flight hours needed to remain qualified, which forces extra simulator training to regain certification.
“Due to my flying schedule, I have been grounded for almost a month and a half, which means that in another month and a half, I will lose my currency. The stress is increasing every day, and we don’t know when this war might end,” he said.
Sammak stressed that safety remains the industry’s primary concern.
“In aviation, safety is never negotiable. Airlines will not operate with even minimal risk exposure. The main constraint is the real-time risk assessment amid rapidly evolving conditions, including airspace closures, drone and missile risks, and GPS interference,” he said.
Rashid has experienced the shift first-hand from his cockpit.
“I take on additional fuel, and I thoroughly check the latest news, updated flight charts, and NOTAMs [Notices to Airmen] to make sure the airspace ahead is open and safe. I also select an alternate airport that is confirmed open and suitable for my flight. Even when flying far from a conflict zone, the situation is always at the back of your mind,” he said. Long-term impact Aviation has historically shown resilience during crises, yet the scale of the current war raises questions about long-term effects.
According to Sammak, European carriers are feeling the strain more acutely than most. Airlines such as Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa were already absorbing higher costs following the closure of Russian airspace since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, which forced them onto longer eastern routes to Far East destinations.
“They are paying an increase on an increase,” he said.
He added that European carriers face mounting pressure from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency’s requirements to adopt sustainable aviation fuel, significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel.
According to Rashid, the biggest long-term question is what this crisis means for the Middle East’s position as a global aviation hub .
“For years, regional carriers built highly efficient hub-and-spoke networks around their geography, but when that geography becomes unreliable, the entire model looks vulnerable,” said Rashid.
“This is not a temporary bump in the road,” he said. “It feels more like a structural crack in the system. Traffic has a way of finding new paths, and secondary hubs in Southern Europe, North Africa, or Central Asia could quietly gain ground.”
Rashid also pointed to a broader shift in industry thinking, noting the slow movement away from an obsession with pure efficiency, towards a focus on resilience. “Building in redundancy, keeping options open, and exercising caution are no longer nice-to-haves; they are becoming essential,” he said.
That resilience, however, is not without precedent. Ramadan referred to Covid-19 as proof.
“Covid created an unprecedented disruption worldwide, but the industry recovered surprisingly quickly,” he said.
Ramadan anticipated that if the war continues longer, irreversible damage may occur, with some smaller players closing and selling assets, while larger European and Asian airlines step in to cover routes previously operated by major Gulf carriers.
“It’s still too early to determine whether the impact on airspace will have lasting consequences,” he said. Vanessa Kallas is a Lebanon-based journalist covering socio-political and environmental issues across the MENA region. Follow her on Instagram: vanessakallas_ Edited by Charlie Hoyle This article is published in collaboration with Egab