Could gas be a conduit for peace in Gaza? That was the intimation by Egypt's oil minister, Karim Badawi , in June when he called for new efforts to finally develop the Gaza Marine field.
The gas - vital to alleviating Palestine's economic and energy insecurity - has remained in situ since its discovery at the turn of the century amid political deadlock with Israel.
Before the 7 October attacks, an unexpected breakthrough had put Egypt's state gas company on course to begin developing the field alongside the Palestinian Authority (PA).
But two-and-a-half years later, a devastating war has left most of Gaza in ruins , thrown its political future into doubt, and put any discussions about bringing Gaza Marine online firmly on the back burner.
Small but essential
Located roughly 30 kilometres off the coast of the Gaza Strip, the gas field was discovered in 2000 by British Gas. It is estimated to contain around one trillion cubic feet of gas (tcf).
Its size is comparatively small relative to other gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus's Aphrodite field is thought to hold 3.5 tcf of gas while Israel's Leviathan is roughly 20 times larger.
Despite its size, the field would be a vital resource for the Palestinian Authority, which currently has no means of generating energy for itself and is wholly reliant on expensive imports of diesel and electricity.
Even more important to the financially stricken authority are the potential revenues that could come from selling gas. The World Bank in 2017 estimated that Gaza Marine could provide $2.7 billion to the PA over a 25-year period.
"Gaza Marine is probably the Palestinians' most valuable natural resource," Michael Barron, the author of The Gaza Marine Story, tells The New Arab .
"That doesn't mean it's going to instantly make them the next Qataris or Emiratis. But it would be a source of revenue and a source of reliable energy."
He says that an independent energy supply would be "transformative", particularly for Gaza, which has for years suffered from chronic fuel shortages amid a years-long Israeli blockade.
Deadlock
From the outset, efforts to develop the field were hamstrung by legal disputes and political deadlock. An early legal challenge by Israeli energy companies against Palestinian rights to the gas resulted in Israel's Supreme Court declaring the licensed area 'no man's water' until Israel and the PA reached a final peace agreement.
The PA's ability to award the license has existed in a legal grey area due to the ambiguities of the Oslo Accords, which did not delineate Palestine's maritime exclusive economic zone (EEZ), where the field is located.
The PA attempted to assert its sovereignty over the area in 2019 when it submitted maritime boundaries under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In practice, this made little difference due to Israel's control over Palestinian waters and its refusal to recognise the PA's sovereignty.
The initiative suffered a further blow after Hamas's takeover of Gaza in 2007 and the start of Israel's blockade , which remains in place to this day. As the territory fell into a cycle of conflict, successive Israeli governments blocked all efforts to develop Gaza Marine, arguing that bringing it online would have seen revenues flow into Hamas's coffers.
Amid the delays, British Gas closed its office in Israel in 2008. Ten years later, Shell - which had acquired British Gas in 2016 - sold its stake in the field to the PA.
A breakthrough looked to have been made in June 2023 after both Israel's hard-right government and Hamas gave surprise approval to the PA and Egypt's state-owned gas company to develop the field. The plan - the product of months of negotiations between Israel, the PA and Egypt - would have seen the bulk of the gas exported to Egypt, with the remainder earmarked for Palestinian consumption.
The reasons for Israel's change of heart have remained the subject of speculation among political analysts. In a 2023 paper, Israeli researchers Elai Rettig and Benny Spanier suggested that the decision was designed to both appease growing US frustration over the rapid expansion of settlements in the West Bank and to stabilise the political situation in Gaza.
An uncertain future
Just four months after the agreement, the Hamas-led attacks in Israel threw Gaza's future - and with it, the Gaza Marine project - into doubt.
Israel's assault has left much of the territory in ruins and destroyed much of its energy infrastructure. Major questions remain over how it will be reconstructed and who will finance the multi-billion-dollar effort.
Moreover, Gaza's political future remains more uncertain than ever, despite the Trump-backed Board of Peace attempting to enforce a ceasefire and bring a permanent end to the war. Nine months after brokering a ceasefire agreement, the board is no closer to finding a resolution .
Israel has gradually expanded its zone of control in Gaza at the same time as far-right government ministers push for annexation and the reestablishment of settlements . Meanwhile, Hamas continues to rule out handing over its weapons without Israel's recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Under a future peace, the board's roadmap envisions a transitional authority governing the territory for three years before handing over power to a new, permanent government. What relationship that government would have to the PA is unclear, as is the transitional authority's ability to renew Gaza Marine's development license, which is due to expire in 2028.
Barron does not expect any transitional body will have the legal power to make decisions over Palestinian natural resources. Even if it did, it is unlikely that companies or investors would enter an agreement with a temporary administration for a development license, which would likely run for about 25 years, he says.
"If you're a company or an investor, you want certainty that after the transitional arrangements, somebody else doesn't come along and tear up the license", he tells The New Arab . "That would create a level of uncertainty and disruption that investors would not tolerate."
The lack of clarity would also make it hard to attract financing for development work and find a market for the gas, he adds.
"The fundamental thing that needs to be in place is a final peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians that resolves the conflict and establishes a recognised Palestinian state that is able to freely make decisions on these matters," he says.
Israeli encroachment
In 2022, Israel began offering tenders for gas exploration licenses in areas considered part of Palestine's maritime territory.
The five bid rounds that have been launched over the past four years have included areas in Zones E and G, large parts of which encroach on Palestine's exclusive economic zone.
The latest round came on 6 July when the energy ministry announced it would tender five blocks covering around 7,100 square kilometres of the Eastern Mediterranean. It remains unclear where the blocks are located.
Palestinian and Israeli human rights groups have demanded that Israel cancel the licenses, which they say breach international law.
In a letter to Israeli officials in April, legal rights group Adalah said Israel had "no legal authority" to operate in these areas and called the encroachment a "clear violation of international humanitarian law".
Around three-quarters of Zone E and 62 percent of Zone G are within Palestine's EEZ, according to Adalah.
"The adoption of the plan constitutes an attempt to impose a new reality at sea, which amounts to de facto annexation of Palestinian maritime areas," it says.
The NGOs have campaigned for the companies participating in the process to immediately withdraw. Italian energy giant Eni announced in March that it would withdraw from its consortium with Israeli company Ratio Energies. Other international companies, including BP and Dana Petroleum, as well as Ratio, remain involved.
"With these tenders, Israel is indicating that it’s seeking to unlawfully exploit natural resources over which it possesses absolutely no legal sovereignty or jurisdiction," Suhad Bishara, Adalah's legal director, tells The New Arab .
"By extending its domestic tenders into Palestine's exclusive economic zone, Israel is attempting to permanently erase Palestinian maritime borders and potentially unlawfully seize non-renewable natural resources," he says.
Matthew Hoare is a journalist at The New Arab
Follow him on X: @matt_h_9
Edited by Charlie Hoyle