When a truce came into effect at midnight on 17 April, Lebanese civilians from across the country breathed a sigh of relief. Everyone told The New Arab they were exhausted from displacement and war. For more than six weeks, Israel unleashed its assault on the country, killing 2,100 people and displacing over 1.1 million people. Israel targeted medics, schools, residential buildings, electricity grids, water stations and bridges—all of which have protected status under international humanitarian law, the main framework governing the laws of war. Since the truce took effect, violence appears to have subsided, allowing hundreds of thousands of displaced people to return to their homes and retrieve essential belongings. Many walked and drove over mounds of rubble and bombed-out bridges to reach their villages. They didn't stay long after Hezbollah warned them to leave out of fear that the truce could collapse at any moment. Others couldn’t return south because their villages are under Israeli occupation. Nivine Hashisho, a volunteer with a local initiative administering a displaced shelter in the city of Saida, said that 70 per cent of people left the shelter hours after the ceasefire was announced. "The other 30 per cent stayed because they didn't receive the green light from the Lebanese army to return," she told The New Arab . Unsustainable The United States said that the 10-day ceasefire amounts to a "gesture of goodwill" by Israel as the latter engages in peace and security talks with Lebanon . However, hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon are bracing for another crisis. With Lebanon's army too weak and ill-supported to defend the country from Israeli aggression, talks risk entrenching Israel’s occupation in southern Lebanon and galvanising support for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Even worse, Israel could bring about an internal crisis by threatening to resume an all-out war on Lebanon unless the government aggressively disarms Hezbollah, say civilians and commentators. "What we have is a situation where the Lebanese government is negotiating with Israel while Israel blows up entire villages in southern Lebanon," said Mohanad Hage Ali, the Deputy Director of Research at the Carnegie Middle East Centre. "The talks are designed to bring about internal tension in Lebanon," he added. Attacks have persisted since the alleged ceasefire came into effect. On 19 April, Israel bombed the town of Karkakela in southern Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah rocket launchers. Hezbollah also said that Israeli troops were killed by booby traps, which were planted before the pause in fighting. What’s clear is that the occupying presence of Israeli troops puts the ceasefire on shaky ground.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will continue occupying 55 Lebanese villages. Meanwhile, Israel, the US and Lebanon are dressing up the disarmament of Hezbollah as an exercise in asserting Lebanon's sovereignty. According to Michael Young, an expert on Lebanon and the senior editor of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Centre, the Lebanese army must be careful. It could trigger an internal crisis if it enters the majority Shia towns to try to disarm Hezbollah. Such a move would likely spark a confrontation between the state and Lebanon's Shia community, he said. On top of that, he said that he can't imagine a scenario where Iran stops backing Hezbollah. "The Iranians won't easily surrender their Hezbollah card," he told TNA . "We are in a struggle of power between Iran and Israel over Lebanon . In a nutshell, that's where we are," Young added. Galvanising support Even if negotiations progress without a return to all-out war, civilians from southern Lebanon are sceptical of a prospective peace agreement with Israel. Many say Israel has failed to respect previous ceasefires, particularly the one which began on November 27, 2024. Israel violated that truce more than 10,000 times, according to the United Nations, and has killed more than 300 people during that period.
On 2 March of this year, Hezbollah finally retaliated with rocket fire after the US and Israel assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, plunging Lebanon back into an all-out confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah's decision to retaliate was unpopular among many people in the south who were forced to flee their homes for the second time in three years. But unlike two years ago, when Israel managed to decapitate most of Hezbollah's senior brass, its performance on the battlefield renewed some confidence in its ability to fight Israel. "We can't say that Hezbollah broke Israel, but it withstood Israel's invasion and held its ground somewhat," said Mohamed, a 40-year-old living between Sour (known in English as Tyre) and Saida.
Hage, from the Carnegie Middle East Centre, added that Hezbollah's traditional supporters feel even more attached to the group due to fears that Israel will permanently occupy Lebanese lands. "Given the occupation and Israeli statements about moving their borders to include villages south of the Litani river, many in the Lebanese Shia community feel insecure and are thus more supportive of Hezbollah," he told TNA . Coercion and isolation On the day before the ceasefire went into effect, Mohamed was stuck in Sour after Israel bombed the last bridge out of the city on 16 April. Standing on the side of the road, he told TNA that he suspects Israel will threaten to turn southern Lebanon into a wasteland—similar to Gaza—if the Lebanese government doesn't fully normalise relations. "It has always been the dream of the Israelis to have a peace agreement with Lebanon ," said Mohammed. He noted that while Israel hasn't achieved its stated military goals of disarming Hezbollah and occupying territory up to the Litani River, it has isolated the south by destroying all the bridges connecting the region to the rest of the country. Israel claims Hezbollah uses the bridges to transport weapons and launch attacks. But the crossings are essential to ensure that commercial goods and civilians can enter and exit the south. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has warned that attacks on bridges were obstructing aid access to thousands of beleaguered civilians.
Civilians in Sour said they are struggling to survive and that they have little faith that the ceasefire will hold. "I mainly eat biscuits to survive each day," said Abdelrahman Halawi, an elderly man living alone in his apartment, which is located next to a mound of rubble. "But of course, there are food shortages in the south. The hardest thing about living through any war against Israel is all the humiliation they subject us to."