I will wait to post on the meeting between Trump and Xi until Friday night. So far it is a nothing burger with regards to the war with Iran. Let’s focus instead on the global economic disruption that is going to hurt almost every country over the next six months.
As a result of the US and Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, the world has learned that in addition to oil, there are four other commodities that play a critical role in the global economy: LNG, Urea, Sulfur and Helium. Not all Gulf Arab countries have the same impact on the global economy. Although Saudi Arabia is the largest in terms of geography and oil exports, Qatar has been the leading producer of LNG, Urea, and Helium. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the economic leaders among the Gulf Arabs, which makes them the most influential voices in any negotiated end to the war. Let’s take a look at a comprehensive country-by-country breakdown across all five commodities. OIL The five countries — Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE — together are the engine of global oil supply. The GCC member states collectively delivered 21.8% of global crude oil production and 26.6% of global crude oil exports in 2024, with production averaging 16.1 million barrels per day. Informed Clearly By individual country, using Strait of Hormuz transit shares as the best proxy for export dependence:
Saudi Arabia is the dominant exporter, accounting for approximately 37% of all crude and condensate flowing through the Strait. The UAE contributes 12.9%, Kuwait 10.1%, while Qatar and Bahrain together account for smaller shares — Qatar primarily as a gas rather than oil exporter, and Bahrain as a very minor oil exporter reliant almost entirely on offshore fields shared with Saudi Arabia. J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia retains some pipeline bypass capacity via its East-West Petroline to the Red Sea, with an estimated 2 mb/d in current use out of 5 mb/d of capacity. The UAE operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah outside the strait. But even using both bypass pipelines at full capacity, roughly two-thirds of current Gulf crude exports remain physically dependent on the Strait — Iraq and Kuwait have no alternative routes whatsoever. Atlantic Council --- LNG Qatar is the dominant Gulf LNG exporter by a wide margin, with total exports of over 112 billion cubic meters in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. The UAE exported a more modest 7 bcm. Together, Qatar and the UAE supplied just over 112 bcm of LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, equating to almost 20% of global LNG trade. There are no alternative export routes for either country’s LNG. CDC Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain are net LNG importers, not exporters — Kuwait in particular receives LNG from Qatar and the UAE via pipeline. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain produce and consume their own natural gas domestically but export negligible LNG volumes.
Qatar alone accounts for approximately 10% of globally traded natural gas, making it the fourth-largest natural gas exporter globally behind the US, Russia, and Norway. Wolf Street --- UREA Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain together accounted for 34% of global urea trade in 2024, with nearly 18.5 million tonnes of urea exported via the Strait of Hormuz annually. WYPR Qatar accounts for approximately 11% of global urea exports, Saudi Arabia approximately 8%, with the UAE contributing meaningfully through its Fertiglobe operations. Kuwait and Bahrain utilize shared export infrastructure and contribute smaller but strategically important volumes, particularly to Africa and South Asia. Reserve Bank of Australia Rystad Energy’s analysis identifies Saudi Arabia and Qatar as the leading regional urea exporters, followed by Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, with their combined exposure tying approximately 21% of globally traded urea to the Strait of Hormuz. Rolling Stone The downstream dependence is severe: India buys more than 40% of its urea from the Gulf region, and Australia depends on the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia for more than half of its urea supply. Truthout --- SULFUR Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar accounted for approximately 41% of global sulfur exports in 2025. This is the single highest share of global exports of any commodity among the five countries, reflecting the enormous volumes of sulfur produced as a byproduct of refining the Gulf’s “sour” high-sulfur crude oil and gas. Reserve Bank of Australia By country, Saudi Arabia dominates as the world’s largest sulfur producer, with Aramco’s Abqaiq and Ras Tanura facilities generating vast quantities. The UAE (through ADNOC), Kuwait (through KPC), Qatar (through QatarEnergy), and Bahrain (through BAPCO) each contribute meaningful volumes.
If the Strait were fully closed, global sulfur supply would fall by approximately 44% annually — the largest proportional impact of any commodity — since there are no viable bypass routes for the bulk carriers that transport sulfur. KPBS Sulfur’s primary industrial use (roughly 85–90% of global production) is the manufacture of sulfuric acid (H₂SO₄), the world’s most produced industrial chemical. Sulfuric acid then serves as a versatile intermediate in countless processes. Direct uses of elemental sulfur or other sulfur compounds make up the remaining share. Sulfur’s major industrial applications are (ranked by volume Fertilizer Production (Largest Use, ~50–60% of Total Sulfur Demand) Petroleum Refining Metal Processing and Mining (Leaching & Extraction) — Sulfuric acid is essential for leaching and extracting metals such as copper, zinc, nickel, uranium, lithium, and cobalt (critical for batteries and renewables). Chemical Manufacturing Rubber Vulcanization Other Significant Uses :
- Pulp & Paper : Bleaching and processing (Kraft process).
- - Water Treatment & Wastewater Processing .
- - Batteries and New Energy : Growing demand in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery production and other battery chemistries.
- - Pharmaceuticals, Pesticides/Fungicides, and Cosmetics .
- - Construction/Polymers : Emerging uses in sulfur concrete, asphalt modifiers, and specialty polymers.
- --- HELIUM Among your five countries, Qatar is the sole significant helium producer. Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE produce negligible commercial helium.
Qatar ranks second globally in helium production with a 33.2% share of world output, making the US and Qatar together responsible for more than three-quarters of global helium supply. J.P. Morgan Qatar’s helium is extracted as a byproduct at its Ras Laffan LNG complex, and since there are no alternative export routes, any disruption to Ras Laffan simultaneously removes both LNG and helium supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s helium production due to the conflict has removed roughly a third of global helium supply, shifting the market from oversupplied to acutely undersupplied. Brookings ---
Based on these figures, it is clear that the damage to Qatar is the most consequential for the global economy because the world now faces a deficit of 30% of the global supply of helium and a loss of 10% of LNG until the Ras Laffan facility is repaired… Which may be more than a year at a minimum.
I did a repeat performance on Thursday afternoon with Mario: I made a new podcast friend… Niko Host. He’s a US Army vet and is busy trying to build an audience: Finally, Garland Nixon and I had our regular weekly chat: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .