By Augustin PALOKAJ Join us on Telegram , Twitter , and VK . Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su Ironically, we could ask: “what would have happened if enlargement had not been a priority”. The fact that never in the history of the EU has 13 years passed without enlargement speaks more to the priority this process has been than political declarations about the importance of enlargement as a high strategic priority. If this is the success of enlargement, then we do not know what the failure could be. It has been 13 years since the last enlargement of the European Union. Since Croatia became the 28th member of the EU in early summer 2013, the bloc has not expanded. Moreover, it has shrunk because the United Kingdom left the European Union, which resulted in a reduction of more than 65 million inhabitants and tens of billions of euros in its budget. Brexit undoubtedly weakened the EU while making the United Kingdom almost irrelevant on the global stage. And what we heard in the 13 years without enlargement was that enlargement is a priority, that enlargement strengthens the EU, that it is a geostrategic process that builds peace and prosperity on the European continent and makes the EU stronger in the world.
Ironically, we could ask, “What would have happened if enlargement had not been a priority?” The reality that never in the history of the EU has 13 years passed without enlargement speaks more to the priority this process has been than political declarations about the importance of enlargement as a high strategic priority. If this is the success of enlargement, then we do not know what the failure could be.
If we look for reasons why there was no enlargement, we can find it in the candidate countries that did not rush to carry out reforms and fulfill the conditions, but we can find it even more in some EU countries that sincerely did not want the enlargement to happen. Some were tired of the great enlargement when in 2004 10 new members were suddenly admitted to the EU and two and a half years later in 2007 two more. Instead of great support for enlargement as the ideal of this generation to conclude the process of unifying the continent, a skepticism towards enlargement began, a phase in which precisely this enlargement was seen as the culprit for many things that were not going well in the EU. When the candidate countries did not rush with reforms, then the EU did not have to rush either. And when the government in the candidate countries doubted that they could make progress in the membership process even if they fulfilled the required conditions, they did not rush with reforms.
Now it is said that there is a “new momentum” in the enlargement process, that that process has increased support among citizens in the current EU countries and that new members will soon be able to be admitted. Indeed, public opinion polls show that over 56% of EU citizens support enlargement. But this is the average across the EU, while in Germany and France the majority of citizens are still against it. And these two countries have the main role in the EU, including in the enlargement process. This is not changed by the large increase in support for enlargement in Denmark and Sweden or elsewhere.
Neither Germany nor France have been big friends of enlargement. France has often been publicly opposed, while Germany has done so more discreetly, speaking in favor of this process, but not engaging in Brussels to advance it. There have been cases when Germany has been among the few countries that has placed obstacles to the advancement of enlargement, demanding internal and external reforms, stricter rules and changes in methodology.
German Chancellor Merz has now come up with an idea to advance the current status of candidate countries before they become formal members of the EU. With this proposal, he has singled out Ukraine as a special case, for which he proposes “associated membership”, while for other countries, including those of the Western Balkans, he has proposed “observer status”. In all cases, these countries would send their representatives to EU institutions, would participate in discussions and meetings without the right to vote, would be able to benefit from some common policies, but would not be part of the EU budget. And this is most important for Germany, which is the largest contributor to the budget.
The German Chancellor made these proposals in a letter, known as a “non paper” sent to the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of Cyprus, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council until the end of June. Merzi expressed his belief that other colleagues from EU countries will support this initiative and that they will be discussed and debated in the coming days, weeks and months. He believes that the realization of these ideas will not require the signing and ratification of new EU treaties. And, Merzi says in the letter, these ideas are not intended to replace full formal membership, which will remain the main goal of the process.
Merz’s letter is just one of the many ideas that have been emerging recently about EU enlargement. And it seems as if the EU is deliberately turning the bloc into a debate club, where “innovative ideas” are discussed and nothing changes. This has made the EU almost paralyzed, unable to speak with a common voice on big things in the world. Because when instead of one voice you have many voices, then you have no voice at all. Today, Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey are more important factors in discussions about resolving conflicts in the world than the EU. The EU has no role in discussions to end Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, nor about the conflict between Iran and the US, nor between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon or in Gaza. It has no role in setting the price of oil and gas either. Of course, the EU will not be forgotten, because it will eventually be called upon to pay the bill for what others have done. Where it has a role, even a leading one, it is not showing success. The dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has not brought about the desired solution and this is acknowledged in the EU. Now the situation in Bosnia is also getting complicated. In Serbia, the EU has no influence on either the government or the opposition. Potential for increased tensions, including interethnic ones, is also being created in North Macedonia, a country that is the best proof that the EU does not fulfill its promises even when the candidate country does everything that is required of it. And if the EU is not able to do more in its own backyard, in the Western Balkans surrounded by member states (Kosovo is the only country in the region that does not border the EU), then what is it looking for on the global stage. The lack of success in the Balkans is evidence of mistakes, insincerity, cooperation with authoritarian politicians and a lack of real interest. For years, the main man leading the EU’s engagement in the Balkans has been Miroslav Lajcak, who has been shown to have love and admiration for the Russian Foreign Minister, at a time when the EU’s main priority has been combating Russian influence in the region.
Germany’s new ideas have not immediately enthused the candidate countries. Ukraine has reacted negatively, while others are not speaking out because they are afraid to criticize something coming from Germany. It is not clear why Montenegro, which is relatively close to completing the accession process in a period of 2 or 3 years, would support such an idea. For others, this idea may be more interesting. But it is not clear what would be gained by participating in meetings where the use of oil-fired boilers in EU countries would be discussed if they knew that the others would decide in the end anyway. EU enlargement, more than an idea, needs a greater and more sincere political commitment from countries like Germany and France, so that this process results in the entry of new countries into it. Everything that is proposed as an intermediate stage is only to delay the enlargement even further. Original article: www.koha.net