For more than five hours, experts and specialists in Washington discussed US President Donald Trump’s second term , focusing on US foreign policy in the Middle East, the war on Iran , and its implications for midterm elections, democratic standards, international law, and human rights in the region and the United States.
The discussions took place during the 11th annual conference of the Arab Center in Washington, DC, whose president Khalil Jahshan moderated the opening session. The centre also honoured writer and human rights lawyer Noura Erakat.
In the opening session, Professor John Mearsheimer, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said the current trajectory of the war represents a defeat for the United States and Israel, particularly following Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz .
He warned that Israel may at some stage use nuclear weapons, saying Israelis view Iran as an existential threat and may resort to nuclear force if they believe Tehran has acquired such capability. He added that, due to the strength of the Israeli lobby in the United States, it is unlikely Washington would prevent this.
Mearsheimer said the Middle East holds supreme strategic importance for the United States because of its connection to Israel, after oil had been the primary driver in the past. He argued that Israel enjoys an unparalleled relationship with Washington and receives unconditional support, adding that US foreign policy in the region is largely shaped by Israeli interests even when they diverge from US national interests.
He outlined Israel’s three main strategic objectives - expanding its borders, including in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, parts of southern Syria, and potentially the Sinai Peninsula; carrying out ethnic cleansing in territories it controls, particularly in Gaza and the West Bank; and ensuring neighbouring states remain as weak as possible.
He said this is pursued either by maintaining neighbouring states subordinate to the United States, such as Jordan and Lebanon, or, in the case of larger states such as Syria, Iran, and Turkey, by seeking to destroy and undermine them. He added that the war in Gaza was aimed at achieving the first two objectives.
Mearsheimer said that after 7 October 2023, Israel attempted to force displacement in Gaza through overwhelming military force to inflict severe punishment on Palestinians, but that with Palestinian resilience, the campaign evolved into genocide and mass killing through bombardment and starvation policies.
He expressed shock at the silence of liberals in the United States, saying Washington is complicit in the war. He added that, in his view, US leaders could face accountability in a scenario similar to post-World War II trials.
On Iran, he said Israel aims to destroy the country in a manner similar to Syria, with ambitions to divide it into separate entities, or alternatively pursue regime change to install a government aligned with the United States.
He argued that Washington entered the war after being misled by Israel, adding that the current situation reflects a war of attrition that the United States cannot win. He cited attacks on US bases, losses in aircraft, declining stocks of advanced munitions, and limited ground forces in the region.
He added that the United States lacks the capability to defend its allies in the Gulf amid ongoing Iranian strikes.
Mearsheimer said Iran currently holds significant leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, giving it the ability to disrupt global trade and trigger severe economic consequences. He warned of potential impacts on fertiliser supplies and global food production, raising the risk of famine.
He assessed that Trump cannot escalate further due to these constraints, arguing that acknowledging defeat may be his only option. He described Trump's rhetoric about destroying Iranian civilisation as "genocidal".
In a second session, moderated by independent journalist Rana Natour, speakers including Trita Parsi, Lara Friedman, Shana Marshall, and Professor Marc Lynch discussed US policy in the Middle East.
Parsi said the US decision to go to war with Iran was based on intelligence and claims promoted by Israel portraying Iran as weak. He added that Israeli officials appealed to Trump’s desire for a historic legacy by suggesting he could eliminate the Iranian system.
Friedman said US policy toward Israel has been consistent across administrations, including under Trump and his predecessor, arguing that there were no fundamental disagreements on Gaza beyond rhetorical support for a two-state solution.
She added that current policy reflects tacit support for settlement expansion, continued destruction in Gaza, and potential expansion into Lebanon and Syria.
In a separate session, Jahshan presented the Arab Center’s 2026 Award for Excellence to Noura Erakat in recognition of her academic integrity and commitment to human rights.
Erakat warned that current policies risk undermining international law and reshaping global governance. She described proposals related to Gaza as a form of “privatisation of sovereignty”, denying Palestinians collective rights, and warned that such models could extend beyond Palestine and weaken the international system.
She called on students to continue campaigning for boycotts and on legal professionals to pursue accountability.
A final session examined the impact of the war on US midterm elections. Carrie Dann of the Cook Political Report said the war remains unpopular, with only around 40 percent approval, citing concerns over fuel prices, economic pressures, and potential casualties.
She said the political impact will depend on whether the conflict continues into the summer and whether US troops are deployed, warning of possible reduced turnout among Republican voters.
James Zogby said there is a disconnect between public opinion and political elites, noting that while many Democratic voters hold negative views of Israel, party structures and funding networks continue to shape policy positions.
He criticised an insular media and policy environment in Washington, but said public opinion could prevail in the long term.