The Regional Quartet — security after the war on Iran

The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt met in Cairo this week to discuss regional affairs in the wake of the Iran war. Their discussions ranged from security in the Gulf to developments in Lebanon and the Red Sea, as Cairo increasingly views the quartet as “a serious forum for coordination among states in the region, whose views largely align, even if they do not agree 100 percent on every issue,” an Egyptian official put it to Mada Masr. The four-way mechanism was established in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran as a forum for coordination on its regional fallout, including the shift it has brought about in how Gulf states manage security affairs. The presidency itself made “a clear expression of Egypt’s interest in supporting this mechanism for regional coordination,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, pointing to the presidency’s statement following President Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi’s reception of the ministers. Egypt’s position on the forum is reflected in Cairo’s decision to host the latest round of talks, the source said, as well as in Sisi’s decision to host the ministers himself and the issuance of a joint statement welcoming the framework agreement between the United States and Iran — reached through Pakistani mediation and with varying degrees of Qatari and Omani support. The Egyptian official and a Pakistani source familiar with the meetings said discussions focused on four main issues: security in the Gulf, Lebanon, broader regional security, and the “territorial integrity” of nations across the Mashriq region and the Red Sea. *** New principles for maintaining GCC security As US-Iranian negotiations continue in Switzerland over the coming two months, they are also set to establish principles for the maintenance of Gulf security, previously dependent on US security provisions and facilities in the region. The challenge in the wake of the US-Israeli war against Iran, is to find a way of maintaining Gulf security in a manner acceptable to all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. The war has shaken what was once a relatively unified GCC approach to regional security. This has translated into uneven support for the quartet as a forum for coordinating regional affairs, said the Pakistani source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. “The regional security architecture means one thing for a state like Saudi Arabia, which participates actively in the quartet’s meetings,” said the source. “It means another for a state like the United Arab Emirates, which regards this group with much indifference and actually relies on Israeli security and military support, as we saw during the war in Iran.” As well as touching on the “broader concerns of Gulf Arab states,” the source continued, the Cairo quartet discussions also touched on “how communication with Iran can be maintained so as to ensure it adheres to commitments that reassure Gulf states.” At present, the source added, this communication is taking place primarily through Pakistan, as well as through Qatari and Omani channels. Both the Pakistani source and the Egyptian official said that several Gulf countries are inclined to sign non-aggression pacts with Iran, or broader cooperation agreements touching both on security and economy, as a way of closing the door to any future Iranian attacks on Gulf states. The sources said that the idea seems simple in theory, but is extremely complex in practice as there are many details involved in negotiating a non-aggression pact. The Iranian side also has its own views on what non-aggression entails in terms of the obligations of Gulf Arab states. The Gulf’s trust in Iran and in the security framework dominated by the US and Israel has been shaken since the war broke out in February. US military facilities in the Gulf came under repeated fire from the beginning of the war. As the aggression on Iran escalated, it increasingly targeted the Gulf’s energy and infrastructure sites too. The disruption that repeated explosions and safety warnings posed to the Gulf’s typically serene cityscapes and its impact on the oil and gas industry — the mainstay of the regional economy — has fractured the previous regional and international understandings that underpinned security in GCC countries. To hash out the details of a new security understanding, the Pakistani source said that technical discussions would take place going forward in parallel with US-Iranian negotiations on the matter. Several Gulf states want the final agreement to include explicit provisions defining the nature of Iran’s regional security commitments to its Gulf neighbours, such as a commitment to refrain from military attacks of any kind and under any pretext, and from using groups within these countries to incite political tensions. Fearing the rise of potential pro-Iran sentiment among Bahrain’s Shia minority, Saudi Arabia deployed security forces to the neighboring GCC country at the outset of the war. *** Iran’s complex regional alignments The second issue discussed during the quartet’s consultations was Lebanon. The Egyptian official stated that no one expected serious or quick discussions on the notion of “separating the arenas” — limiting the potential involvement of Iran’s allies in any future military confrontations with Israel. “This issue is extremely complex, in particular with regard to Hezbollah’s situation in southern Lebanon,” he said. “At the same time, Iran is expected not to engage in any action that violates another country’s national sovereignty in the future as it often has through Hezbollah, particularly in Lebanon.” Though territorial integrity was also part of the discussions, Lebanon is a more complex case than other countries where Iran has allies, the Pakistani source clarified. The source said the matter is “a little different” when it comes to the Houthis in Yemen, given the nature of the conflict there, and to Shia armed groups in Iraq, where the country’s demographic and political makeup is largely aligned with Iran’s system of Islamic rule. “[Lebanon] is a special case and there is an ongoing discussion on this,” the same source said, noting that Qatar is playing an increasingly significant role on that file, while Pakistan’s involvement has been more limited. Qatar is set to establish a channel for indirect talks between Israel and Hezbollah in parallel with the ongoing discussions in Switzerland toward a settlement between the US and Iran, a source told Mada Masr earlier this week. *** Regional security in the future The third topic of discussion, according to both sources, concerned future arrangements for regional security. According to the Egyptian source, there was “a brainstorming session” about “possible ideas for regional security coordination.” “Of course, in the future we can talk about frameworks for regional security. But for now, we are still in the stage of discussing needs, ideas and ways to deal with challenges, including, of course, Israeli attacks” on Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. “No one is talking about a military confrontation with Israel. No, of course not,” the source clarified. “But the discussion is about how we deal with the reality on the ground, in a way that does not lead to further regional security deterioration.” *** Territorial integrity in the Mashriq and beyond The fourth topic discussed was preserving the unity and territorial integrity of countries, and not supporting any divisions or separatist movements, according to both sources. The Pakistani source said this is particularly important for Saudi Arabia, which rejects the UAE’s attempts to divide Yemen into two countries: one closer to Riyadh and and the other with Abu Dhabi. Similarly, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have expressed deep concern regarding the situation in Somaliland, an unrecognized breakaway state in Somalia that recently established relations with Israel, according to the source. The source said that Egypt and Saudi Arabia also rejected ideas circulated in some Arab and African political circles about the possibility of Sudan’s division. According to the source, the ministers are expected to resume consultations and coordination in a later meeting, likely to be held in July. The meetings in Cairo were the fourth round of discussions held by the quartet. Earlier rounds of meetings were held in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The post The Regional Quartet — security after the war on Iran first appeared on Mada Masr .