Voters are heading to the polls in Makerfield to choose their next MP, with popular Labour politician Andy Burnham predicted to win. This expected victory could cause trouble for the UK's current prime minister, Keir Starmer, with Burnham expected to challenge him for the leadership of the Labour party and the country.
Latest figures from Opinium predict that Burnham will receive almost half of the votes (46 percent), with the right-wing Reform UK party coming in at 41 percent, far-right Restore Britain at seven percent and the Conservatives, the Green Party and Liberal Democrats at three, two and one percent.
Starmer's leadership has long been unpopular in the UK, amid failures to improve the economy after Brexit and years of Conservative austerity. This was seen in the Labour Party's jaw-droppingly disappointing results in recent local elections.
Burnham has increasingly been seen as a potential saviour of the party and an alternative to Starmer's lacklustre style. He is seen more openly left-leaning, more regionally focused and not tied to Starmer's government.
MP Josh Simons resigned after the local elections to allow Burnham to stand in a by-election and return to paliament, potentially.
Alongside former health secretary Wes Streeting, The Greater Manchester Mayor is expected to challenge Starmer in a leadership contest should he win.
The contest which could destabilise the government and reshape the party's direction.
Burnham's win could mean a new prime minister and a major policy shift, with the politician more open to taxing the rich, changing tax allowances, and adopting a more interventionist economic approach.
If Burnham wants to trigger a fight, it can only happen when 81 Labour MPs (20 per cent of the parliamentary party) back a new candidate, and the politician would have to make sure he has enough support to submit written nominations to the party's General Secretary to trigger the contest.
A candidate needs an absolute majority of votes to win. If none of the candidates meets that threshold, the candidate who received the fewest votes would be removed, and the voting would happen again. Views on the Middle East One of the reasons for Starmer's unpopularity has been his continued support for Israel amid its genocidal war on Gaza , with the UK failing to impose sanctions and allowing the export of weapons, while cracking down on pro-Palestinian activism.
Burnham's policies appear to be little different in this regard. While he has proclaimed support for the frequently violated ceasefire and expressed concern over civilian suffering, he has asserted Israel's supposed "right to defend itself" as it pursues aggressive wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
He has been a member of Labour Friends of Israel since 2015, despite having visited the occupied West Bank with Labour Friends of Palestine in 2012. He also said his first state visit would be to Israel.
He has also described the Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign as "spiteful" and "the wrong response".
In addition, when he was previously an MP in 2003 he voted in favour of the invasion of Iraq and voted twice against an inquiry. The war led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and was deeply unpopular in the UK.