Israel's military strategy in Gaza has evolved beyond direct occupation into a fragmentation campaign, backing at least five Palestinian armed groups in an attempt to dismantle Hamas governance and create a chaotic security vacuum that deepens control over the war-torn enclave, a new report by ACLED argues.
An analysis published on Monday by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) maps how Israel has intensified its backing of militant groups in Gaza, leading to a spike in violent incidents since the start of 2026.
Hamas rejected the original proposal put forward by US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace that calls for full disarmament of the group, citing continued Israeli ceasefire violations and growing attacks by Israel-backed armed groups as their primary concerns. The groups operating east of the Yellow Line ACLED has identified at least five groups currently operating from Israeli-controlled areas east of the Yellow Line in Gaza .
Among the oldest is the Popular Forces, which operates out of the al-Bayuk area east of Rafah and is led by Ghassan al-Dahini, a former leader of Jaish al-Islam.
Another southern Gaza group is the Counter-Terrorism Strike, based in Qizan al-Najjar and led by former Palestinian Authority officer Husam al-Astal, whom Hamas has accused of cooperating with Israel since the 1990s.
The report also identifies the Popular Army, operating from Wadi al-Salqa east of Deir al-Balah, and the Popular Defense Forces, which have targeted Hamas figures in areas including Shejaiyya. Both are led by figures formerly affiliated with PA police and security forces. Sharp increase in attacks ACLED has recorded more than 40 violent incidents involving these groups since October 2026, resulting in nearly 80 fatalities.
The surge has coincided with Trump administration efforts to advance the second phase of the ceasefire agreement beginning in February.
"As long as Israel continues providing these groups with weapons, training, and other support, their activities are likely to intensify", Nasser Khdour, ACLED's Middle East assistant manager, said, arguing this will make Hamas "even less willing to compromise on disarmament".
Although most attacks have occurred around Israel's line of control, some have reached deeper into Hamas areas.
On 20 April, Israeli-backed groups infiltrated central Khan Younis , with gunmen in black uniforms carrying AK assault rifles and opening fire. Hamas later said it was fighting "Israeli collaborators".
The attacks have primarily targeted Hamas security forces, including the group's Sahm and Radea units, with some groups carrying out targeted assassinations of police and senior security officials.
"Israel has increased the level of support it provides to armed groups – which includes weapons, logistics, intelligence, and training – and has also deployed attack drones during the groups' clashes with Hamas militants," the report states.
ACLED says this tactic minimises risk to Israeli soldiers. The Popular Forces, for example, have assisted the Israeli military in clearing Hamas tunnels and capturing militants. Securing a role in post-war governance The report argues Israel has backed these groups to maintain their influence over post-war Gaza 's security apparatus, including tasking the Popular Forces with securing the Rafah border crossing.
This comes as Hamas attempts to maintain parts of its existing police and security structure. Municipal elections held in Deir al-Balah on Saturday saw the Hamas-aligned Deir al-Balah Brings Us Together party win only two of 15 seats, while the Fatah-backed Nahdat Deir al-Balah list secured six seats, with 23 percent turnout.
Khdour argues that by allowing a PA-backed election, "Hamas is showing some flexibility on local governance in Gaza, even as it continues to reject the Board of Peace's disarmament plan".
However, ACLED says these groups do not pose an existential threat to Hamas, "nor do they have the capacity to replace it as a political force", arguing "they have been mobilised mainly by anti-Hamas sentiment rather than by a coherent political goal".
The groups remain fragmented with differing leadership styles, and some leaders are known for criminal activity and links to fatal aid looting incidents - factors that "limit the appeal of the anti-Hamas narrative, especially as Hamas continues to portray these groups as collaborators".
"Israel's continued empowerment of anti-Hamas groups will deepen Palestinian divisions and keep the heightened risk of intra-Palestinian violence alive," ACLED concludes. "This dynamic serves the Israeli government's interests of blocking the emergence of a new political order in Gaza and further isolating the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank."