Formerly secret UK documents show that Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) knew that expanding Nato to admit new members could lead to war with Russia .
UK Defence Intelligence prepared a Nato enlargement study in 1996 that produced scenarios in which war with Russia was envisaged after countries in central and eastern Europe joined Nato. These declassified government files , available at the National Archives , challenge the notion that Nato’s expansion provides little or no explanation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
One scenario, drawn up in August 1996, considered the “implications of membership by the Baltic States”, which at the time had not yet joined Nato. The paper envisaged that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had all joined Nato and considered “possible scenarios which would lead to an operation under Article V of the Nato treaty” – under which Nato members pledge to come to each other’s defence if attacked. The scenario considered a situation where the three states “would face an aggressor”, which was clearly identified as Russia. Defence Intelligence made the assumption that “Russia has vehemently opposed Nato membership for the Baltic states and has threatened retaliation to preserve her own security against a perceived hostile military alliance on her borders.” RELATED Blair and Major reassured Russia about Nato expansion This was “either because of Nato membership or as part of an overall re-establishment of Russian power and influence along her borders”.
It further envisaged that Russia “foments discontent amongst the Russian minority in Estonia claiming persecution on the grounds of language/culture/human rights”. Moscow could claim “large areas of eastern Estonia as Russian territory, threatens to annex them by force and cuts all energy exports to Estonia”, it added.
This scenario has echoes of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine after 2014, where it sought to “protect” Russian-speaking communities in the eastern Donbas region of the country and then announced their annexation in 2022.
Russia, Belarus, Ukraine
The British files envisage other war scenarios where Russia is seen as the aggressor. In one, also drawn up in August 1996, the MoD makes the assumption that the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia have all become Nato members and that a power bloc involving Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (which it calls RBU) has come into being. “The enlargement of Nato is very unpopular with the RBU axis”, Defence Intelligence noted in its scenario. The RBU then issues a demand for a return to the pre-Nato boundary or else “the need for a buffer zone between Nato and the RBU border”. When these demands are rejected by the West, “a large-scale airborne assault is launched against the Baltic states” and “a massive air strike is launched against Gdansk” in Poland . In addition, two mechanised RBU divisions are envisaged to push towards the Vistula river from Ukraine and another force advances on Budapest in Hungary.
“Diplomatically, the RBU coalition government states that its legitimate sphere of interests have [sic] been directly threatened by ‘aggressive Nato expansionism’ and that there are no other intentions beyond creation of a buffer”. The paper then envisages “Nato reinforcement operations”.
Another war scenario involves the implications for Romania joining Nato by the year 2000 alongside Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. It considers Nato’s ability “to provide reinforcements under an Article V operation” in the face of a Russian threat. The MoD’s assumption is: “A nationalist government is returned in Russia and embarks on a policy of reasserting Russian power and influence along her borders and beyond”. The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joined Nato in 1999, with Romania and Slovakia becoming members in 2004.
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