Hungary’s long-time prime minister Viktor Orban has been defeated in an election on Sunday, removing one of Israel’s closest allies inside the EU. This has raised fresh questions about whether the bloc could now move toward sanctions given Israel's continued attacks and violations of international law in Gaza and Lebanon.
Orban’s relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went beyond routine diplomacy.
Netanyahu openly aligned himself with the Hungarian leader, appearing alongside him politically, while senior Israeli ministers publicly endorsed Orban’s re-election.
Israeli officials described Hungary as a key defender of Israel in Europe, and under Orban, Budapest became what some Israeli analysts described as a "last line of defence" inside the EU. Why Hungary matters Under Orban, Hungary positioned itself as Israel’s closest partner in Europe, repeatedly intervening to block or dilute EU action. Because foreign policy decisions require unanimity, Budapest’s stance carried disproportionate weight.
The alignment was both strategic and ideological.
Hungary’s government not only shielded Israel diplomatically, but also aligned with Netanyahu on issues ranging from migration to scepticism toward international institutions, reinforcing a broader political partnership. How the EU decides sanctions EU sanctions must be approved unanimously by all 27 member states, meaning a single country can prevent them entirely.
In practice, this allows governments to stop proposals before they reach a formal vote. When more critical states push for measures, including sanctions, discussions take place behind closed doors. If a country objects, language is softened to secure agreement, or proposals are dropped altogether.
Hungary repeatedly played this role in relation to Israel. It blocked joint statements criticising Israeli settlement policy, watered down language on Gaza, and helped ensure that sanctions proposals were rarely pursued to the point of decision.
Without that automatic veto, measures that were previously unviable could now move forward. Israeli concern Israeli coverage reflects a mix of concern and caution.
Analysis by Ynet warns that losing Hungary could remove a key "firewall" in Brussels, potentially allowing sanctions to be considered more seriously.
Others argue the impact should not be overstated, noting that the EU remains divided and that Hungary was not the only country reluctant to take punitive action. What happens under Peter Magyar? The position of Orban’s successor, Peter Magyar, remains uncertain. A former insider within Orban’s Fidesz Party, Magyar is not expected to dramatically reverse Hungary’s foreign policy overnight.
However, there is little evidence he would replicate Orban’s consistent use of veto power to shield Israel.
Hungary could remain broadly supportive of Israel while stepping back from actively blocking EU consensus, a shift that would significantly alter the dynamics in Brussels. Who is pushing for action? Several EU countries have taken a more critical stance on Israel and have pushed for stronger measures, including sanctions.
Ireland and Spain have been among the most vocal, calling for increased legal and economic pressure.
While these states cannot impose sanctions on their own, they play a key role in driving discussions within the bloc. Without Hungary acting as a guaranteed blocker, their proposals could gain traction. What jeopardy could Israel face? The immediate impact is likely to be rhetorical, with stronger EU statements and increased diplomatic coordination.
However, more concrete steps are now more plausible. These could include targeted sanctions on Israeli officials or settlers, restrictions linked to settlement activity, or a review of trade arrangements under the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Full-scale economic sanctions remain unlikely, but unlike before, they can no longer be dismissed outright as procedurally impossible. Beyond pragmatism Orban’s defeat may also weaken a broader political alignment.
His partnership with Netanyahu was often framed in terms of a shared "Judeo-Christian" identity, tied to opposition to migration, hostility towards Muslims in particular, and scepticism toward international institutions.
This alignment formed part of a wider illiberal network within Europe, one that views Israel as a model for the defence of "Western civilisation" against the perceived threat of Islam.
Its weakening could have implications beyond immediate policy, affecting like-minded parties both domestically and within the EU framework. Why sanctions are still uncertain Despite these changes, significant barriers remain.
Germany continues to play a decisive role and has been reluctant to support sanctions on Israel, though it has largely been seen as using Orban's veto to shield itself from criticism.
Other states could also step in to block consensus, most notably Czechia and Austria. Orban’s defeat removes a key obstacle that helped keep sanctions on Israel off the table.
Whether the EU now moves toward them will depend on whether other member states are willing to act upon this new opportunity to uphold the rules-based global order the EU often claims to represent.