Billionaires have funneled vast sums into the campaigns of Republicans at risk of losing both chambers of Congress. According to The Washington Post’s megadonor tracker , the top 50 billionaire donors have spent $2.8 billion on the midterms, favoring Republicans 2-to-1. Meanwhile, the top five Republican super PACs have outraised their Democratic counterparts by $732 million , adding to the GOP ’s huge cash advantage.

Yet this financial edge is less impressive than it first looks, once the hood of federal election rules is raised. While rates paid for advertising purchased directly by candidates are heavily discounted, outside groups like super PACs pay a premium for airtime. Because individual Democratic candidates have outraised their Republican opponents in most competitive races this cycle, their ad dollars stretch further than those of GOP’s super PACs. According to data from AdImpact , Republicans outspent Democrats by almost 100% buying broadcast TV ads across nine competitive Senate contests in September, but only received 40% more “rating points.”

The GOP’s financial advantage shrinks further upon examination of where they have spent their money. In September, the three biggest MAGA-aligned super PACs spent around 40% of their funds in states Donald Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2024, according to an Associated Press analysis . Meanwhile, the GOP’s main Senate super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has been forced to redirect money away from traditional battlegrounds toward red states with unexpectedly competitive races.

Republican groups have also been spending big in other once-safe states.

In early October, for instance, the super PAC pulled all of its funds out of the North Carolina Senate race. Republican Michael Whatley had fallen so far behind his Democratic opponent, Roy Cooper, that the funds were rerouted to Kansas, where the incumbent Republican remains in a tight race with Democrat Adam Hamilton. To put this in perspective, a Democrat hasn’t come within 10 points of winning a Kansas U.S. Senate seat since 1974, or won one since 1932 . Marshall first won his election by over 11 points in 2020. Four years later, Trump won the state by 16 points.

Republican groups have also been spending big in other once-safe states. In Nebraska, which Trump won by over 20 points two years ago, incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts has been locked in a close race with independent populist Dan Osborn. In a sign of the GOP’s growing concern, the Senate Leadership Fund recently pumped $15 million into the race. The PAC also announced an additional $20 million in spending in neighboring Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson is virtually tied in the polls with Democratic opponent Josh Turek. (Two years ago, Trump won the state by over 13 points).

No race captures the GOP’s panicky defensive posture — or its growing reliance on megadonors — more than the Senate contest in Texas, where far-right Republican Ken Paxton has consistently trailed Democrat James Talarico in the polls. To beat back the prospect of the first Democratic senator in the Lone Star state in nearly 40 years, last month Elon Musk funneled $158 million to the pro-Paxton Texas PAC through the SLF. The race will likely end up being the most expensive nonpresidential election in history.

The GOP’s scramble to shore up red states marks a stark reversal from the party’s position in 2024. Trump’s second election heralded a national shift to the right that included sharp swings in traditional Democratic strongholds. The Republican Party seemed poised to build a new governing majority that would keep Democrats out of power for years, if not decades. Commentators speculated about a broader political realignment and which blue states would fall next in the wave of Republican capture .

A mere two years later, the narrative is in reverse, with talk of a blue wave crushing red states amid the GOP’s historic polling collapse .

Whether red states are as vulnerable as the polls suggest, it’s clear that Republicans badly misread the 2024 election as a generational mandate. In reality, the GOP’s strong showing reflected voters’ frustration from the rising cost of living, which candidate Trump promised to solve “on day one.” Instead, his policies — tariffs, mass deportations, the war in Iran — have helped drive prices up . The government’s final consumer prices report before the election shows the annual inflation rate at 3.7% , fueled mainly by rising energy and food costs.

The weakness of Republican candidates in previously “safe” states and districts makes perfect sense when one looks at how these areas have been impacted by Trump administration policies. Since the start of the Iran war last February, the 10 states with the largest increases in gas prices all voted for Trump in 2024. The surge in diesel prices in particular has disproportionately impacted rural and Midwestern states where Republicans count much of their base. In Kansas and Iowa, the president’s trade policies have caused similar distress for farmers by driving up costs on everything from tractors and fuel to fertilizer.

Republicans badly misread the 2024 election as a generational mandate.

Then there is a wave of opposition to data centers that is uniting Americans across the political spectrum. According to a recent national poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, only 1-in-9 Americans said they would support the construction of an artificial intelligence data center in their community. The issue is most salient in red and purple states, where most of the new hyperscale data centers are being built , causing all sorts of problems for local communities. In response, Trump has mocked these communities, saying those who resist the construction of data centers will simply end up “backwards and poor.”

He has been just as snide in addressing more general economic anxiety and discontent. This past week, he again described affordability as a “fake word made up by the Democrats ” and dismissed the cost-of-living crisis as a “hoax.” This dismissiveness helped drive his approval rating to an all‑time low . Notably, much of this decline comes from eroding support among Republicans: Just 67% of 2024 Trump voters now approve of his job performance, down from 95% at the start of his second term.

It’s no wonder that more Republican candidates, particularly those in tight races, have worked to distance themselves from the president and even split with him on key issues like tariffs, the Iran war and data centers. Unfortunately for these candidates, the billionaire megadonors who are funding their campaigns are about as unpopular with voters as Trump. Next Tuesday, we’ll find out whether their billions are enough to pull Republicans out from the deep political holes they’ve dug for themselves.

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