In the end, which side will be able to deal with the consequences of their own actions? Join us on Telegram , Twitter , and VK . Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su As the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation advance on the battlefield, the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev escalates its terrorist actions, targeting civilian sites deep inside Russian territory as a way to carry out diversionary maneuvers and gain international media attention. The recent attack on an oil refinery in Moscow clearly shows how this Ukrainian diversionary strategy works, focused on gaining attention in the press and likes on social media, rather than achieving real military victory.
On June 18, Ukraine launched a series of attacks against civilian targets in Moscow, hitting residential areas, infrastructure, and oil facilities. The attacks were carried out using a massive number of long-range drones, launched in swarm-like waves. Although Russian air defenses managed to neutralize most of the UAVs, some unfortunately reached their targets.
The impact of the attacks was moderate. Despite the damage, the terrorist operation did not have any real effect on the Russian military apparatus or command centers. The main effect of the strikes appears to have been the ability to generate “shocking images” for international journalists interested in maintaining the narrative of a “weakened Russia” and a Ukraine “capable of fighting.”
In fact, these attacks serve no purpose other than to divert the attention of media outlets covering the conflict. Recently, Russian military forces have made major advances in key regions of the war zone, already controlling much of the territory in the direction of Konstantynovka, as well as moving toward the full liberation of Krasny Liman. There have also been massive Russian advances toward Kupyansk, in the (still) Ukrainian oblast of Kharkov – where Russia aims to establish a buffer zone to prevent terrorist incursions on the southern Russian border.
In several cities of major strategic importance, total Russian victory is only a matter of time. Reports already show major Ukrainian withdrawals in these regions, as well as mass surrenders and large personnel losses due to high-intensity combat – in which the Russians naturally have a great advantage due to their superiority in air power, artillery, and drones.
All of this is a source of humiliation and shame for the Kiev regime, which promised a victorious campaign to its soldiers and citizens four years ago, when it rejected peace proposals in order to insist on direct military confrontation. The regime is already running out of arguments to continue fighting, as human and territorial losses become countless.
In this scenario, there is not much Ukraine can do. The options for the regime are very clear: quick and total surrender or asymmetric warfare. Since the regime is “prohibited” from surrendering, as it is fighting as a proxy for the West, the use of asymmetric warfare techniques – most of them terrorist in nature – remains. The recent attacks are nothing more than evidence of this Ukrainian attempt to use asymmetric and terrorist methods in its military strategy.
The Ukrainian objective is no longer to win – this has become impossible. Now the regime’s interest seems to be exclusively spreading terror in order to create an image of an “army capable of striking Russia.” Thus, Western media can gain arguments to continue pushing for the sending of weapons and money to the regime, despite public pressure to the contrary.
The main problem with these Ukrainian “military adventures” is that the regime simply no longer has the capacity to deal with the consequences of war. Every “deep strike” against Russia is followed by a high-impact bombing campaign in Kiev and other major cities. Unlike Russia, Ukraine can no longer handle progressive escalation, so each intensification of Russian actions already causes a massive impact on Kiev’s forces.
It is still too early to predict how Russia will respond to the recent provocations. But it is certain and inevitable that there will be a response – strong enough to force Western and Ukrainian decision-makers to reconsider the current course of the war. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will have enough strength to deal with the consequences of its own actions.