The details about an alleged Iranian attempt to attack the U.S.-UK military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia last week are as mysterious as the secretive base itself. Although the Iranian government has denied attacking Diego Garcia, Israeli and other government officials as well as members of the Euro-American media have seized on the story of an Iranian attack to ring alarm bells about a supposedly increased Iranian threat. Previously, Iran’s missiles were understood to have a much smaller range, making Diego Garcia and most European capitals safe from their power.
Some clearly stand to benefit from a version of events in which Iran is a threat to Europe. Until more evidence emerges about whether or not the Iranian military actually attempted to strike Diego Garcia and, if it did, how close it got to succeeding, extreme caution is warranted before drawing any conclusions. Analyst Adam Johnson rightly warns , “Given the stakes of this claim––potentially pulling EU countries into the war…basic journalistic skepticism is in order.” Unconfirmed Reports Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal cited unnamed U.S. government officials in reporting that Iran “fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia,” the tiny British-controlled island in the Chagos Archipelago. The Journal reported that neither missile hit the major Air Force and Navy base, which has been an important launchpad from which the U.S. government has waged its war on Iran.
Over the weekend, an Iranian government official denied that Iran fired missiles at Diego Garcia, calling the claim an Israeli “false flag” operation meant to deceive people into thinking that Iran was responsible. To make matters more confusing, an Iranian government-linked news outlet, Mehr, had already confirmed the attack, calling it a “significant step … that shows that the range of Iran’s missiles is beyond what the enemy previously imagined.”
The Israeli and UK governments have said that Iran targeted Diego Garcia, around 2,500 miles from Iran, but provided no additional evidence or details. The Israeli military’s chief of staff emphasized the alleged threat Iranian missiles now pose to European capitals, most of which are within a 2,500 radius.
Notably, U.S. officials, who are responsible for a base where British personnel only have a token presence, have not commented publicly or provided additional information about the supposed attack. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also said in a Sunday interview that he couldn’t confirm that Iran had attacked Diego Garcia or that Iran’s missiles can now reach European capitals. What We Know and Don’t Know Contrary to some reporting, there has been no evidence provided or independent confirmation to suggest that either of the alleged Iranian missiles got near Diego Garcia or that the U.S. military shot down one of two.
According to the Journal, “one of the missiles failed in flight, and a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor” at the other missile. The Journal cited one U.S. official as saying it’s “unclear” if the U.S. interceptor actually intercepted the Iranian missile or if it failed to reach Diego Garcia for another reason. The New York Times has reported that the interceptor shot down the missile, citing a lone U.S. official.
There is thus no evidence of the missiles’ actual range. Until additional evidence is provided about the attack and where and how the alleged Iranian missile was destroyed, there’s reason to be cautious in assessing the degree to which Iran’s missile inventory poses a threat to Europe and Diego Garcia. The Israeli government, in stressing the alleged threat Iran poses to Europe, likely hopes that European nations will provide more support for the U.S./Israeli war. U.S. government officials may have a similar desire.
That an Iranian-linked news outlet initially confirmed the attack only for a government official to deny responsibility is curious. Also confusing is that the Iranian government appears to have taken at least a day to issue a denial. The lack of an official U.S. government statement or any presentation of the evidence about the attack is similarly strange. If the Iranian government were in fact responsible, one can imagine it having reasons both to confirm and to deny the attack. Confirming the attack could force the U.S. military to dedicate more resources to protecting bases like Diego Garcia and be a way to threaten U.S. allies in Europe in order to prevent them from joining the war. Denying responsibility for the attack, on the other hand, could take away a reason for European allies to provide more support for the United States. More Vested Interests Another group that stands to benefit from reports of an Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia are the people involved in a campaign to kill ratification of a treaty that would see the UK formally return sovereignty over all the Chagos islands to the western Indian Ocean nation of Mauritius, a former British colony.
Diego Garcia and the rest of the Chagos Archipelago have been in the news recently because the UK has been on the verge of returning the Chagos islands to Mauritius. The two governments signed a treaty last May recognizing the sovereignty of Mauritius. The UN, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and other international bodies have recognized Mauritian sovereignty since Mauritius won a near unanimous victory over the UK at the ICJ in 2019.
Britain’s ruling Labour government has failed, however, to win ratification for the treaty in Parliament, stymied by a coordinated campaign to kill the agreement led by right-wing figures such as Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage and former prime minister Boris Johnson. The Biden administration previously supported the treaty, which makes provision for the United States to remain in control of the base for 99 years. President Donald Trump initially indicated opposition to the treaty only to change his mind and offer his support. Recently, he reversed course again, slamming the treaty. Talk of an increased Iranian missile threat to Diego Garcia may offer treaty opponents more rhetorical ammunition to demand that the islands stay in UK hands, in violation of international law and an overwhelming international consensus.
The fate of the islands’ sovereignty and their indigenous people, the Chagossians, both remain unclear. Chagossian history is even less well known than that of the secretive base. Between 1968 and 1973, as part of the installation’s creation, the U.S. and British governments forcibly removed the Chagossians from their homeland and left them in exile 1,200 miles away in Mauritius and the other western Indian Ocean islands of the Seychelles.
Descendants of enslaved Africans and indentured Indians, the Chagossians have lived in exile ever since, struggling to win the right to return home and receive proper compensation for their expulsion and more than half a century of impoverished exile. The UK/Mauritius treaty would allow Chagossians to return to all their islands except Diego Garcia and provide a compensation fund for their benefit.
If the treaty is not ratified, the long-thwarted hopes of many Chagossians to go home or to visit their homeland and the land of their ancestors and their ancestors’ graves may be in danger of never being fulfilled. Needed: More Clarity The mysteries surrounding the alleged missile attack on Diego Garcia could be clarified if the U.S. government provides evidence about the missiles involved, their trajectories, and thus their potential firing range. Until government or independent evidence emerges, observers should avoid repeating unverified claims and drawing conclusions based on statements from governments that stand to benefit from inflating the Iranian military threat.
Solving these mysteries, however, should be irrelevant to the ratification of the treaty returning sovereignty to Mauritius and enabling Chagossians to go home. Whether or not Iran has missiles capable of hitting the island, the British Parliament should ratify the agreement, which would largely bring the UK into compliance with international law while allowing the UK and United States to continue operating the base and the Chagossians to go home.
Chagossian human rights and the right of Mauritius to regain islands unlawfully stripped by the UK government in 1965 should not be yet more casualties of a war that has already caused so much human damage.
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