Israeli military commanders have been been surprised by Hezbollah’s capabilities amid the war in Lebanon and now believe that only a negotiated settlement can end the war with Iran , without a change in the regime there, Israel’s Channel 12 television reported on Saturday.
The channel obtained a recording of a tense conversation held last Tuesday between the head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, Rafi Milo and residents of the Misgav Am kibbutz , which is near the Lebanese border.
He said that Hezbollah had managed to rebuild its capabilities despite the severe strikes it sustained in Israel’s 2024 against Lebanon .
“There is a gap between how we concluded Operation Northern Arrows [Israel’s name for the 2024 war], what we concluded and believed, and the reality in which we are discovering that Hezbollah is still standing,” Milo said. He added that Hezbollah’s operational capabilities remain a concern for Israel.
What I’m sure is concerning you all is the steep-trajectory [rocket] fire,” he told the residents of the northern Israeli kibbutz.
These remarks were made during a meeting addressing the investigation into the death of a 60-year-old Misgav Am resident who was killed by shellfire accidentally launched by the Israeli army at the kibbutz last month. Milo took responsibility for the incident, saying: “First of all, I apologize. I bear responsibility for this incident as the commander of this battle. This is a bad and difficult event, and it should not have happened.”
The Israeli army has said that Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets a day at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, but only a few are directed at Israel itself. Milo tried to reassure the residents of Misgav Am that they are safe from Hezbollah rockets but Channel 12 said that only a day later, Israel changed its assessment of Hezbollah’s capabilities, saying that Hezbollah was stronger than it thought. Channel 12 said that Hezbollah had adopted a policy of “rationing the use of its munitions” allowing it to continue launching rockets and drones at Israel and Israeli forces in Lebanon for an extended period.
Israeli army assessments indicate that Hezbollah can maintain a launch rate of about 200 operations per day – including the use of rockets and drones - for approximately five more months.
These estimates also suggest that Hezbollah still possesses hundreds of launch platforms, most of them deployed north of the Litani River.
However, Channel 12 also said that Hezbollah’s command and operational structure had been affected, with communications disrupted between its central leadership and forces operating in south Lebanon.
The US-Israeli war on Iran spilled over into Lebanon on March 2 after Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rocket strikes on Israel in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Since then, Israel has launched massive and indiscriminate strikes on southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut while ordering hundreds of thousands of residents to flee their homes. At least 1,368 people in Lebanon have been killed, while 4,318 have been injured according to the Lebanese health ministry.
Regarding the war on Iran, Milo offered a more measured assessment compared to prevailing Israeli political rhetoric, saying that he expected the Iranian government to still be in power at the end of the war.
“I estimate that this will not end with the fall of the regime. It appears to remain stable despite the strikes, and it is likely to end with some kind of agreement,” indicating that the war would only end with a political arrangement.