The prospect of a wider war between Iran, Israel and the United States appeared to reced e on Monday after Iran announced an end to its latest retaliatory strikes against Israel, though uncertainty remains over whether the crisis will give way to diplomacy or merely a temporary lull in fighting.
Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, which has coordinated the country's military operations during the conflict, said it was ending its response following a "painful response" to Israel's strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday. Israeli officials also indicated that they believed the latest round of fighting had come to an end.
The latest exchange marked the most serious direct confrontation between Iran and Israel since the US-brokered ceasefire came into effect in April. It also highlighted how quickly tensions can escalate amid continuing Israeli military operations in Lebanon, growing pressure on Iran and the absence of a broader political settlement between the regional rivals.
Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director, told The New Arab that the latest escalation had exposed the fragility of the current calm.
"This is a reminder that the conflict remains unresolved and that the risk of renewed large-scale hostilities is very real," Vaez said.
"The key question is whether the current approach evolves from containment to diplomacy." Iran halts strikes but warns of harsher response Iran's military said its latest operation had concluded after delivering a significant response to Israel's strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, but warned that any further attacks would trigger a more severe reaction.
"Should acts of aggression and hostility continue, including in southern Lebanon, much more severe and crushing measures than before will follow," Khatam al-Anbiya said in a statement carried by state media.
According to Israeli media reports, Iran launched between 22 and 24 ballistic missiles towards Israel between Sunday evening and Monday morning, with one missile reportedly landing in the occupied West Bank.
Israeli officials also signalled that they believed the confrontation had run its course. The Times of Israel quoted officials as saying that "the sense is that this round of fighting is behind us", while they awaited a final decision from the country's political leadership.
Israel responded to Iran's attacks by striking targets inside Iran, including a petrochemical facility in Mahshahr and air defence systems.
The latest escalation comes against the backdrop of months of indirect diplomacy involving Washington and Tehran, as well as continuing efforts to secure a more durable ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. The unresolved Lebanon front Israel's ongoing military campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah, one of Iran's closest regional allies, remains a major source of tension.
Tehran has repeatedly linked broader regional de-escalation to an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and has opposed efforts to weaken the region's "axis of resistance".
Following the outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump publicly urged Israel not to launch further retaliatory strikes.
Israel's Channel 12 reported that planned attacks on Iran were halted following a phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
On Truth Social, Trump wrote that "both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE", while warning that negotiations remained vulnerable to disruption.
At the same time, he indicated that the US-led blockade and pressure campaign against Iran would remain in place until a broader agreement was reached.
Trump also told NBC that he would like to see a "more surgical attack on Hezbollah" following Israel's strike on Beirut's southern suburbs.
Vaez warned that the underlying drivers of the conflict remain unresolved despite the apparent end of the latest round of fighting.
"Iran is unlikely to acquiesce indefinitely to a situation in which it remains under severe economic pressure while its regional allies are being systematically degraded," he told The New Arab. "Without a political pathway forward, the risk of renewed escalation will remain high."