Bomblets from a single Iranian missile hit at least ten locations across Israel, particularly in Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva in late March, setting cars and buildings on fire and injuring nine people in a strike that Israeli medical teams initially described as causing no casualties.
The attack was the latest in a pattern that has shaken assumptions about how well Israel's multi-layered air defences work, analysts argue.
Since the US-Israeli war began on 28 February, Iran has fired cluster munitions at Israel on a near-daily basis, according to the Israeli military. About half of all ballistic missiles launched at Israel in this conflict have carried cluster warheads, turning one missile into dozens of small explosive charges that scatter over kilometres of urban terrain.
Human Rights Watch confirmed three separate cluster munition attacks on populated areas, documenting at least four civilian deaths, and said the strikes violate the laws of war and may amount to war crimes.
The strike on the Tel Aviv metropolitan area sent sirens wailing across a wide arc from the coastal plain to the western slopes of the occupied West Bank and as far north as Netanya.
The warnings made clear that the threat had moved well beyond military targets and into the heart of Israel's most densely populated corridor. An 'area weapon' Military analyst Wasef Ariqat said the problem starts at altitude. The carrier missile climbs a high ballistic trajectory, then separates at between seven and 10 kilometres above the ground, releasing its payload.
"The number of bomblets can range from 20 to 80 depending on the payload and design, with the possibility of developing them to include several heavier warheads that increase their destructive power," he told The New Arab .
The spread turns one target into a cloud of small ones. This dense and simultaneous dispersal makes it "an area weapon, not a point weapon," Ariqat said.
"It does not target a specific point with precision. It targets an entire zone, which multiplies the probability of casualties and increases human and material losses, especially in populated or exposed areas." Haaretz tracking found that 11 cluster missiles penetrated Israeli defences during the war, with one scattering roughly 70 bomblets over central Israel. The bomblets weigh between two and five kilograms each, Ariqat said, and fall at high velocity, giving them what he described as "significant penetration and blast effect on impact."
The challenge for air defence systems is that interception after fragmentation is, in Ariqat's words, "effectively useless, because the bomblets have already dispersed."
Late-stage interception can actually scatter them more widely. This increases the area of impact rather than reducing it.
Even partial hits on the carrier missile do not solve the problem. If the missile is only partially hit, whether before or after fragmentation, this may complicate the operational picture because the trajectories of the remaining bomblets become unpredictable, Ariqat said.
"The unexploded bomblets can remain active for years, posing a permanent threat to civilians," he said.
Israel's Home Front Command has instructed citizens not to approach unexploded munitions following attacks. A deliberate strategy Political analyst Murad Harfoush said Iran did not introduce its full missile arsenal at once, but follows a gradual tactic in introducing missile types into the theatre of confrontation, starting from the early weeks and reaching the use of cluster missiles most recently.
"This approach points to a deliberate strategy aimed at establishing rules of engagement based on parity and reciprocity, whether in the quality of targets or the nature of facilities targeted."
The accuracy and damage reflect rapid development, Harfoush said.
" Tehran may possess more advanced systems that have not yet been revealed, which could be disclosed if the scope of the war widens," he argued.
Israeli air defences showed clear limitations. The separation into multiple warheads overwhelms tracking and interception systems, reducing their effectiveness compared to conventional ballistic missiles. Radars cannot follow all trajectories accurately or deal with every separated warhead simultaneously, he argued.
"Operations have moved from targeting military installations to striking economic, energy, and even civilian infrastructure, which has pushed past conventional rules of engagement into a stage of comprehensive attrition," he said.
He also warned that the rapid escalation "signals a significant rise in human and material losses, particularly with the potential targeting of infrastructure and residential areas."
The failure of regional and international mediation may push the confrontation into a more complex phase, he argued.
If the political track fails, the war is likely to become far bloodier, possibly involving unconventional weapons. The continuation of this trajectory could lead to a zero-sum equation that threatens regional stability, with consequences extending beyond borders, beyond the economy, and beyond energy security, he said. Under the bomblets Israeli affairs analyst Ismat Mansour said that conventional missiles end their effect at the point of impact.
“These missiles split into small bombs, which multiply the damage and create confusion within Israel's decision-making apparatus," he explained.
The pattern exposes limits on both cost and capacity. The war budget is climbing sharply due to the continuous need to intercept this type of missile, according to Mansour.
Former Israeli air defence commander Shachar Shohat acknowledged the challenge, noting that what Israel faces now is "only the leftover of their inventory and their capability," even as the damage mounts.
"Iran sought to cause clear damage inside Israel, particularly to infrastructure and densely populated areas, and this reflects a shift in the nature of deterrence," Mansour said. "Iran likely holds capabilities that have not been fully revealed yet, making it a formidable party in this confrontation and presenting Israel with challenges that require a permanent reassessment of its strategies."
Neither Iran nor Israel has signed the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, which 112 states have ratified.
Human Rights Watch called Iran's use of cluster munitions in populated areas "a foreseeable and long-lasting danger to civilians". It said the bomblets are "unlawfully indiscriminate in violation of the laws of war."
Amnesty International reached a similar conclusion after the 12-day war last June, calling Iran's use of cluster munitions a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.
Israel itself used cluster munitions extensively in Lebanon in 2006, leaving up to a million unexploded bomblets on the ground according to the United Nations, and has reportedly used them again in Lebanon in 2025.
"From a moral and political standpoint, I see the use of cluster munitions as entirely unacceptable, because by their nature they do not distinguish between civilians and combatants," said Aida Suleiman, a member of the Knesset. "When the threat hangs over civilian areas, whether inside Israel or in the Palestinian territories, it constitutes a clear violation of the principles of international humanitarian law and endangers the lives of innocents on both sides."
Palestinians who remained in the 1948 territories already suffer from gaps in infrastructure and civil protection, and this threat deepens their sense of insecurity, she added.
"There is an urgent need for clear demands to the government, such as improving shelters, strengthening warning systems, and distributing resources fairly, because security must be an equal right for all." Israel's refusal to sign the cluster munitions convention undercuts its own position, she said.
"The tools currently available are not sufficient, because real commitment begins with joining and respecting international agreements, which would give the state greater credibility in demanding compliance from others."
"My message is clear," Suleiman said. "The protection of civilians must be above any political or military consideration. The international community must apply the same standards to everyone without exception, and ensure accountability when weapons that cause widespread and indiscriminate harm are used."
Israel's health ministry said more than 6,131 people have been taken to hospitals since the start of the escalation, with many still receiving treatment as the nature of the weapons being used continues to shift. This story is produced in collaboration with Egab .