Massachusetts Busts the “Millionaire Exodus” Myth

“Tax me all you want. I’m out.”

In an interview with The Boston Globe , hedge-fund manager Paul Krager ominously predicted that the Massachusetts Fair Share Amendment—a four percent surtax on incomes above $1,000,0000—could “destroy the best city [Boston] and the best state in America.” He predicted that CEOs, corporations, and wealthy residents would all flee to more tax competitive states like Texas, Florida, and New Hampshire. His words echo other critics’ portrayal of a “ Millionaire Exodus ” where wealthy U.S. nationals renounce their citizenship to escape paying taxes.

The only problem? There is almost no empirical evidence to back up this assertion. In fact, the available data suggests that the surtax has been a resounding success.

One way we know the tax has been successful is by the revenue it has managed to bring in. The surtax has surpassed all revenue expectations despite only being paid by less than 1 percent of the population. It has filled state coffers with more than $8.6 billion since going into effect in January of 2023. The $3.1 billion collected in the first three quarters of FY2026 has already exceeded the $3.0 billion raised in FY2025 from the surtax. If current trends continue, we can expect revenue to reach $3.4 billion as the fiscal year comes to a close at the end of the month.

This year-over-year growth makes it difficult to argue that millionaires are leaving the Bay State in statistically significant numbers. If the state’s highest earners are abandoning the Commonwealth, then who’s paying the tax?

Migration data from the IRS supports the same conclusion. Since the surtax’s implementation, the number of $200,000+ earners—the highest category recorded by the IRS—leaving the state actually shrunk by nearly 10 percent , the first decrease in 6 years. Despite prophecies of doom-and-gloom, Massachusetts has followed the same trajectory as nearly every other state in New England and it has actually seen an increase in the number of $200,000+ earners.

The IRS data has more bad news for the proponents of millionaire exodus. People who earned over $200K who left Massachusetts took a combined $7.1 billion in income with them in 2022, but only took only $6.2 billion in 2023. This fact makes it difficult to argue that millionaires are fleeing the state, in which case we would expect to see that amount spike.

The supposed mass relocation of venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and CEOs has not materialized either. In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics , the Bay State now has 1,010 more CEOs than it did in 2021. Abigail Buckwalter made headlines when she decided to relocate to Massachusetts after being elected CEO of the agricultural cooperative Ocean Spray, bringing over $1 million in taxable income to the state.

“Massachusetts is world-renowned for its education and inclusiveness,” Buckwalter said in an interview with The Boston Globe . “I’m excited for my kids to go to school here.”

Real Estate developer Sam Slater expressed a similar sentiment in an interview with Business Insider. Praising Massachusetts’ public school system, accessibility, and sports culture, he said “I don’t want to pull my kids from that for my desire to pay less in taxes,” even though he acknowledged that the surtax did not cause any changes in his lifestyle.

The available data suggests that the surtax has been a resounding success.

Slater is far from alone in staying. Of the 21 Massachusites listed on Forbes ’ 2022 billionaire list, none—not even the most wealthy—have moved out of the state.

These CEOs’ stories and their growth as a class reveal the more-complicated reality that critics like Paul Krager prefer to ignore. Of course, we can never say that the surtax has led to zero outward migration, but most migration is driven by other factors: opportunity and quality of life.

The Massachusetts’ millionaire exodus—supposedly massive and undeniable—has left no discernible evidence in surtax revenue, the number of CEOs, or the IRS’ records of interstate migration. There is strong evidence, however, behind the benefits the Fair Share Tax has had for education and public transportation . All community colleges in the state are now free. Local infrastructure like roads and bridges are being upgraded and repaired , and every K-12 student has been guaranteed free breakfast and lunch at school. All of these initiatives have been funded by the Fair Share Tax.

Massachusetts has taken the first step towards a more equitable and progressive tax system . As states like Hawai’i and Washington follow suit, critics have again repeated prophecies about millionaire exodus, and again without any substantial evidence. Massachusetts proves them wrong.

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