The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has warned that the city may experience record-breaking high temperatures this year and next year due to climate change and forecasts of a “super-strong” El Niño event. A heatwave in Hong Kong in late May 2026. Photo: Kyle Lam/HKFP. “According to the latest forecasts from multiple climate models, sea temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to rise, developing into an El Niño event in the summer and continuing until at least the beginning of next year,” HKO scientific officers Tse Kwan-shu and Tse Wai-po wrote in a blog on Monday.
The climate models also forecast that the El Niño event could reach “super-strong” intensity, they said.
“If this extreme forecast eventually materialises, it means it could break historical records and become the strongest El Niño event on record,” they warned. “A strong El Niño will generally increase the chance of abnormally high temperatures in different parts of the world,” they added. Under the combined influence of climate change and El Niño, “the average temperature in Hong Kong this year and next will be significantly higher, and record-breaking high temperatures may occur.”
According to the HKO, El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon whereby sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become abnormally warm. A heatwave in Hong Kong in late May 2026. Photo: Kyle Lam/HKFP. An El Niño event will bring “abnormally high temperatures” to many regions around the world, stronger typhoons and will alter seasonal rainfall patterns in some areas, resulting in rainfall that is either higher or lower than normal.
The Observatory urged members of the public to pay attention to the hot weather warning issued by HKO and take measures to prevent heatstroke.
Boy died of suspected heatstroke
On Saturday, an 11-year-old boy died of suspected heatstroke, local media reported . He vomited and lost consciousness after a training run at the Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground. The boy was sent to hospital, where he was certified dead.
Kowloon Motor Bus (KMB) announced that, starting on Wednesday, it would provide heat-relief items, including handheld fans and water, for elderly passengers at 10 bus terminals heavily used by senior citizens, TVB reported on Monday.
HKO has issued four “very hot weather warnings” this year, with the first one issued on May 26 . In early June, Friends of the Earth urged the government to prioritise the climate crisis and strengthen its climate adaptation policies, as the city is expected to endure an extremely hot summer this year.
The environmental NGO also called for the protection of vulnerable groups, including the elderly, children, people with chronic illnesses, low-income families, homeless people, and those who work outdoors.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that the intensity and frequency of heatwaves have continued to increase since the 1950s due to human-caused climate change. The prevalence of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide – which trap heat in the atmosphere – raises the planet’s surface temperature, with hotter, longer heatwaves putting lives at risk. See also: How extreme heat became the deadliest silent killer among world weather disasters Hong Kong has already warmed by 1.7 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, research NGO Berkeley Earth says . Heat and humidity may reach lethal levels for protracted periods by the end of the century, according to a 2023 study , making it impossible to stay outdoors in some parts of the world.