Year-on-year inflation in Iran reached a level in May unseen since World War II, underlining the economic pain average Iranians face as the Islamic Republic braces for the US-Israeli war possibly restarting.
A report on Monday by Iran's Central Bank represents the first official acknowledgement of what Iranians shopping, paying for a taxi, or visiting a medical clinic already know: the rial is battered .
Economic pressure in the past has sparked nationwide protests , something Iran's theocracy has been trying to avoid since a crackdown on demonstrators in January killed over 7,000 people , according to activists' estimates.
But even as hard-liners hold gun-handling workshops and organise marriages under the shadow of a ballistic missile to bolster spirits, experts note that new demonstrations could emerge if people find themselves priced out of feeding their families.
"I have no doubt that if Trump leaves (Iran without a formal peace deal) ... most probably, we will see something like January by the end of summer because of the economic and social situations," analyst Mohsen Jalilvand said in a video published by Iran's Fararu news website.
Iran's Central Bank said the consumer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services, reached 77.2% in May compared with the year before. It added that the rate is 8.5% higher than in April. Inflation in daily and general needs—like medicine, taxi fares, tobacco and communication fees—rose 113.8% from the year before. Iran saw even higher inflation in 1942 during World War II, sparked by the British and Soviet invasions of the country and the takeover of its railways, which disrupted food supplies. The lack of food, worsened by a poor harvest, sparked hyperinflation and a famine. Hunger and a typhus outbreak killed many.
A private economic think tank in Iran, the Bamdad Institute of Economic Studies, described the current figures as "an unprecedented rate since World War II." Iran's Central Bank did not acknowledge the significance of the figures.
Airstrikes this year have greatly damaged Iranian businesses and its oil industry. Meanwhile, the US blockade has been targeting Iranian crude oil shipments trying to reach the international market, a key source of hard revenue. Tax revenues have been depressed by businesses that are still struggling even after the fighting paused.
The rial, which traded at 32,000 to $1 in 2015, now trades at over 1.7 million to $1.
"We will definitely have higher prices," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in May. "We are fighting, and we must accept this hardship."