Dozens of countries around the world are drawing up plans to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz , which has slowed to a trickle since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran.
Iran's attacks in the Gulf have effectively shut down the vital chokepoint, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and gas and key commodities such as fertilizers. Who's in control? Although the strait is designated as international waters, Iran is using the war with the US and Israel to maximize its control over it. Though its navy has been heavily degraded by US strikes, it has asserted de facto control over the area via a steady stream of attacks in the Gulf that has allowed it to impose terms on transit. Concern is rising globally that Tehran may look to use the war to permanently change the status quo by charging transit fees.
A coalition of mainly western countries is discussing assembling an international naval force to wrest control back from Iran, though what its mandate will be or when it will deploy remain to be seen. Has it been 'closed'? Shipping may have ground to a near halt but it’s not because Iran has physically closed the strait. Its armed forces have threatened on several occasions to mine the area, though there is little evidence to suggest that this has occurred. More than a dozen ships have been directly targeted by Iran's armed forces since 28 February.
Rather, the root of the blockage lies with the insurance market, which has effectively been frozen for Hormuz since the start of the war. The continuous Iranian attacks has triggered a surge in war-risk premiums and led insurers to axe coverage, preventing shipping companies from transiting the strait. How many ships are getting through? The number of ships getting through has plunged to just several per day from more than 100 before the war.
Iran has in recent days began offering guarantees of safe passage to ships linked to certain countries, provided they meet certain conditions. They include the payment of a transit fee in Chinese yuan and the provision of information about their cargoes, crews and destinations.
Since 13 March, ships have been required to transit via a corridor controlled by the Revolutionary Guards close to the Iranian mainland.
It is possible that traffic could slightly increase in the coming days after Tehran told the International Maritime Organisation that all " non-hostile " shipping would be granted safe passage. It remains unclear which countries Iran is designating as hostile.