In June 2023, he stated: “As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin’s demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines.” Hamish was overly confident in Ukraine’s ability to deliver decisive blows using Western-supplied armor (e.g., Challenger 2 tanks) and combined arms maneuver warfare, and woefully ignorant about the defensive lines Russia had constructed in advance of the Ukrainian attack.
He also expressed enthusiasm for British-made tanks, reportedly tweeting or stating something along the lines of “British-made tanks are about to sweep Putin’s conscripts aside,” emphasizing their superiority over Russian forces. Here again, Hamish apparently never learned that such a ground offensive required significant close-air support from an air force that did not exist.
Earlier in the buildup (e.g., spring 2023), he insisted that ambitious Ukrainian strikes, potentially ambitious in scope, buttressed by new Western arsenals would achieve quick breakthroughs.
By late July 2023 (as the offensive was underway but stalling all along the southern front), he wrote in The Telegraph that the counteroffensive was in its early stages, urged the West to ensure its success “at all costs,” and predicted that Ukraine would eventually “punch through the Russian defence lines and retake the Crimea and the East.” He stressed that failure would be catastrophic for the West, but remained bullish on eventual success despite delays and challenges like mines and prepared defenses.
Reports confirm that wounded Russian convicts (many missing limbs from battlefield injuries) are being forcibly returned to the front lines to plug critical manpower shortages, highlighting the Kremlin’s extreme desperation. (Hamish forgets to mention that these reports came to him courtesy of the Ukrainian intelligence service, which was funneling them to the British and American counterparts.)
He describes Putin as a “criminal” leader running out of “cannon fodder,” with Russia’s army increasingly reliant on poorly trained, injured, or coerced personnel rather than professional forces. This reflects broader exhaustion: massive casualties (hundreds of thousands), low morale, equipment shortages, and inability to sustain offensive operations despite territorial gains in some areas.
De Bretton-Gordon frames this as evidence that Putin’s strategy is failing, predicting the regime is nearing a breaking point where it can no longer prosecute the war effectively without major concessions or collapse.
He ties this to the need for continued Western support for Ukraine, implying that sustained pressure could force Russia toward negotiation or defeat.