Pakistan's diplomatic gamble: How an unlikely peacemaker emerged


Pakistan's attempt to broker peace between the United States and Iran ended without a breakthrough on Sunday, leaving the outcome of the talks uncertain and placing Islamabad in a delicate diplomatic position as it struggles to balance competing alliances with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh, and key Gulf states. Pakistan hosted at least two rounds of talks over approximately 20 hours, one through intermediaries and one directly between delegations that represented the full weight of the conflict.

The US was represented by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran sent Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had personally invited both delegations to Islamabad through a public post on X, and Pakistan had earlier managed to broker a two-week ceasefire before bringing them to the negotiating table.

The US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman had all welcomed Pakistan's mediation role, reflecting a degree of trust in Islamabad's intentions that was, by Sunday evening, not yet matched by results .

Vance, speaking at a press conference after extending appreciation to Sharif and Field Marshal General Asim Munir, described the outcome plainly. "We've had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians," he said. "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement."

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X that it "was a busy and long day" for the Iranian delegation, during which "numerous messages and texts have been exchanged between the two sides."

He noted that discussions had covered "various dimensions of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region".

Critically, neither side declared the talks over. Both left a window open for further engagement , preserving Pakistan's potential role as a continuing intermediary.

Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, urged both sides to remain committed to the ceasefire and expressed readiness to "facilitate engagement and dialogue" between the US and Iran going forward.

The nuclear question appeared to be the most intractable obstacle. Iran reportedly presented a 10-point agenda while the US brought 15 points, though neither set of terms has been made public. Vance was explicit about Washington's position: "We have made very clear what our red lines are, what things we are willing to accommodate them on and what things we are not willing to accommodate them on."

The Iranian delegations, he said, had "chosen not to accept our terms." He added: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and the tools that will enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon." A deep dilemma Pakistan's success in bringing the two sides together is already being described as a diplomatic achievement. But the position Islamabad now occupies is as much a burden as an opportunity.

Dr Nabeel Hussain, who holds a PhD in defence and strategic studies and lectures at the Department of Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in Islamabad, described Pakistan's situation as a "deep dilemma".

"The situation is not easy, as Pakistan is supporting talks while, on the other hand, it maintains strong defence relations with Saudi Arabia," he told The New Arab .

The tension is structural. In mid-September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement during Sharif's state visit to Riyadh, where he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and pledged that aggression against one country would be treated as an attack on both.

Saudi Arabia hosts over two million Pakistani expatriates, and the two countries have maintained close political, military, and economic ties for decades.

At the same time, Iran shares nearly 900 kilometres of border with Pakistan's resource-rich but volatile Balochistan province, which has faced a long-running insurgency. Pakistan is also home to the world's second-largest Shia population after Iran, making it impossible for Islamabad to discount Tehran from its regional calculations.

The overlap between these relationships became visible in stark terms during the Islamabad talks themselves: as negotiations continued over the weekend, Pakistan sent fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under the terms of the September 2025 defence pact. The limits of balance Dr Shah Nawaz, a lecturer in the political science department at Islamia College Peshawar, said the current moment has tightened a long-standing challenge.

"It is not the first time that the challenge of keeping a balance between the two rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, has emerged, but it has got a little tight now due to the ongoing escalation," he said. "The challenge existed since 1979, and Pakistan has always shown a tilt towards Saudi Arabia because of the economic relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia."

He added that if the situation deteriorates further, Pakistan will likely move towards the Saudi camp, though it would do so reluctantly, given the depth of its relationships with all sides.

Afrasiab Khattak, a former Pakistani senator and political analyst, told The New Arab that Pakistan's geographic realities compel it to maintain relations with Iran regardless of political pressures. But he was direct about the limits of Islamabad's influence.

"The issue of mediation is fine for Pakistan, but Pakistan is not in a position to bind Israel or the US to whatever they agree to," he said. On the question of a direct Iran-Saudi confrontation, he added: "If KSA and Iran get into a fight in the ongoing conflict, Pakistan cannot afford to confront Iran."

Dr Hussain agreed that the balance would become harder to maintain. "Pakistan is engaged in defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and diplomatic engagement with Iran," he said. "The situation could become more challenging in the future."

Pakistan's position is further complicated by its economic vulnerabilities . To stabilise its finances, Islamabad relies on loans and aid from the IMF, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China, making any significant tilt in one direction carry immediate financial risk.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's crude oil passes, runs directly through the geography of this conflict, and its reopening under the ceasefire matters as much to Pakistan's own fragile economy as to the global markets it affects.

What Pakistan has demonstrated in Islamabad is not passive neutrality but something more calculated: a strategy of leveraging multiple, competing relationships to assert relevance in a shifting regional order.

The country holds a military alliance with the US dating to the Afghan war, a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, a pragmatic relationship with Iran shaped by geography and demography, a deep economic partnership with China, and now a moment of international visibility that none of its domestic crises has produced.

Whether Islamabad can translate that visibility into durable diplomatic standing, and sustain the balance its mediation has required, will depend on what happens next in a conflict that remains as yet without a resolution. Wasim Sajjad Islamabad is a journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Pakistan This story was published in collaboration with Egab Edited by Charlie Hoyle

Published: Modified: Back to Voices