The saga of TACO Trump (i.e., Trump Always Chickens Out) continues to add new chapters… A few hours before the end of the two week ceasefire with Iran, Trump unilaterally announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire (see image above), but also kept the blockade in place. After threatening to end Iran as a civilization, Trump backed down… And thank God he did.
By extending the blockade Trump is sabotaging any chance to having serious negotiations with Iran. The Iranians are adamant that the blockade and sanctions must be lifted before there can be a genuine negotiation to end the war. During a meeting with his national security team, Trump was compelled by all in attendance — with the exception of Pete Hegseth — to call off new airstrikes on Iran because everyone in the room with him on Saturday said “no” to renewing US attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. While I still do not have any independent confirmation that there was a tussle between Trump and Caine over the potential use of nuclear weapons in Iran, General Caine reportedly is increasingly pushing back on Trump’s desire to expand the war in hopes of securing a cheap, easy victory. Fortunately General Caine understands the current limits of US power and the risks of launching a ground attack in Iran.
Ultimately, I think Trump’s escape from this dilemma will involve the resurrection and acceptance of something like the JCPOA. The most likely change would be making the deal permanent without a time limit. Let me remind you of the substance of the first JCPOA.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, ws a 2015 multilateral agreement designed to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remained exclusively peaceful in exchange for the lifting of nuclear-related international sanctions. Iran negotiated with the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members — United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China — plus Germany) and the European Union. The objective of this agreement was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons by placing verifiable limits on its nuclear activities while providing economic relief. Iran reaffirmed it would never seek, develop, or acquire nuclear weapons.
Iran agreed to significant, verifiable rollbacks and caps: Centrifuges: Reduce from ~19,000 installed to 6,104 total, with only 5,060 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges enriching uranium for 10 years (at the Natanz facility). Excess centrifuges were dismantled and stored under IAEA monitoring. Advanced centrifuge R&D was restricted for the first decade. Uranium Enrichment :
- Cap enrichment level at 3.67% U-235 (suitable for civilian power/research, far below weapons-grade ~90%) for 15 years .
- - Limit low-enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg (of UF6 gas) for 15 years (a ~98% reduction from pre-deal levels). Excess was to be diluted, sold, or converted.
- Facilities :
- Natanz : Main enrichment site (enrichment allowed but under limits for 15 years).
- - Fordow : Underground facility converted to a research center; no uranium enrichment or related R&D for 15 years .
- - Arak heavy-water reactor : Redesigned (with international help) to minimize plutonium production; spent fuel shipped out of Iran; no new heavy-water reactors for 15 years ; no reprocessing of spent fuel for 15 years .
- Monitoring and Verification : Unprecedented IAEA access, including continuous monitoring of facilities, the Additional Protocol, and a mechanism for timely access to suspicious sites (with a maximum ~24-day resolution process). Iran implemented enhanced safeguards.
In return, Iran received phased, nuclear-related sanctions relief, starting with Implementation Day (January 16, 2016 Triggered after IAEA verified Iran’s initial steps. This was the main payoff date:
- UN: Terminated prior nuclear-related Security Council resolutions (subject to “snapback” mechanism).
- - EU: Lifted virtually all nuclear-related economic/financial sanctions (banking, oil, shipping, insurance, automotive, gold, etc.).
- - US: Suspended many secondary sanctions (affecting non-US companies dealing with Iran in energy, finance, etc.). Some limited primary relief (e.g., aircraft parts, carpets/food imports). Core US primary sanctions (terrorism, human rights, missile-related) remained.
- Later phases: Additional relief on Transition Day (~8 years after Adoption Day) and Termination Day (October 18, 2025, 10 years after Adoption Day), when many UN/EU measures were to end permanently. Iran gained access to frozen assets (~$100–150 billion estimated) and re-entered global oil and financial markets.
I suspect that many of you had no idea of the scope and precision of the JCPOA. If JD Vance and Rubio can convince Trump to pursue a new, updated version of the JCPOA, this will initiate a long, time consuming set of negotiations. While I doubt that Trump has the patience to endure such a process, I hold out hope that once he realizes that the US has no good military options for defeating Iran he may conclude that this is his best option to secure something that looks like a win. Otherwise, the war will likely drag on until the mid-term elections in November.
Marcello, who hosts Press of Mass Destruction , asked me about the latest intel on negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz: I had an interesting conversation with a new YouTuber based in Virginia: Back again with Mario (I know, he drives some of you crazy, but I like the kid) I appear at the 2:24:22 mark, but Mario had an impressive lineup that included Glenn Diesen, Mehdi Hassan and Trita Parsi: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .