When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States deployed almost 5,000 troops to Poland, doubling the number that had already been stationed there. The reinforcements were sent mostly to southeastern Poland, close to the border with Ukraine, and their task was to deter further Russian aggression.

Warsaw welcomed the move but uncertainty persisted: the troops were deployed on a rotational, not permanent, basis. Now Poland, which prides itself on being the staunchest U.S. ally in Europe, wants more.

For many months, the center-left government and the right-wing presidential administration have been in talks with the Trump administration to set up a permanent U.S. military base in Poland. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk recently said the decision is “imminent” and should be made no later than December, while Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, wrote that there is an “ongoing exploration of potential opportunities for permanent basing of U.S. forces in Poland.” According to Stanisław Wziątek, another Polish deputy defense minister, the prospective base could accommodate up to 5,000 additional troops.

Details of the negotiations are scarce, but expectations in Poland run high. The government sees the Trump administration’s decision as a test of whether it is willing to put additional pressure on Russia. The presidential administration wants to capitalize on President Karol Nawrocki’s good relations with President Donald Trump to secure a favor in the form of a permanent U.S. military base. Both sides would be massively disappointed should the U.S. eventually pass on the project.

There is reason to believe, however, that the long-awaited base is not as crucial to Poland’s security as officials in Warsaw like to think. The very fact that the talks between Poland and the United States have dragged on for many months suggests that there is little sense of urgency, at least in the White House, and that the threat of Russian attack on Poland is not imminent.

For Poland, this should be a clear indication that the key to its security lies neither in amassing U.S. troops on its territory, nor in currying favor with Trump – who may change his mind at any time – but rather in adopting a more independent-minded attitude, which would allow for more political flexibility and a greater focus on its own military potential.

Russian threat, American retreat

It is true that the Russian drones and fighter jets regularly fly close to the Polish border and occasionally violate Polish airspace. It is also true that Russia has carried out sabotage operations in Poland, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But there is no serious indication that Moscow intends to, or is able to, invade Poland.

Even if Russia wanted to subjugate Poland, one should bear in mind that since 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have failed to break through the front lines in the Donbas, a region located more than 600 miles away from the Polish-Ukrainian border. It is also not difficult to figure out that invading Poland would make absolutely no sense for Russian President Vladimir Putin at a time when he is hoping to reach a deal with Trump.

The sluggish pace of U.S.-Polish negotiations stems from the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy . Since the beginning of 2025, the United States has largely focused on reducing its commitments and cutting down the U.S. military presence in Europe, not shoring it up. In December, the Pentagon is expected to conclude its review of the U.S. force posture in Europe, and the most likely result is the reduction in troop levels on the continent. It is plausible that the project of a permanent base in Poland will be scrapped too, or at least put on the shelf. After all, that would be consistent with the Pentagon’s concept of “ NATO 3.0 ,” which aims to shift the responsibility for conventional deterrence to European allies.

There is a possibility, of course, that the White House goes forward with a permanent base in Poland. This would likely reflect a short-term victory by the hawks in the administration and Congress who want to put more pressure on Russia. Alternatively, this could be Trump's gesture toward Nawrocki, a fellow nationalist, whom he praises lavishly. Either way, Polish officials should not delude themselves into thinking that such a decision would be made out of concern for Poland’s security in particular.

Time to change gears

Given these circumstances, Polish officials should think about their country’s security in a more unorthodox and open-minded way. Poland is a dynamic, rapidly-developing economy that needs three things to prosper: physical security, political stability and a high level of investment. There is a serious risk, however, that a protracted “forever” war across the border, coupled with ever-increasing tensions between Russia and Europe, will make it much more difficult to achieve these goals.

The likelihood of such a bleak scenario is all the more probable because Poland now believes that the conflict between Russia and the West is inevitable and that the only way to ensure its own security is through military means. Warsaw heavily invests in military equipment while senior government officials declare that they want to have the largest army in Europe. Poland’s defense budget is approaching 5% of its GDP, and the slogan “if you want peace, prepare for war” can be heard almost everywhere.

But the fact that this militarization occurs in a total absence of European-led diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions and ending the war in Ukraine makes Poland more, not less, vulnerable. Officials in Warsaw may not see it this way, but relations between Europe and Russia have steadily been spiraling into the so-called security dilemma , an international relations theory premised on the observation that defensive preparations by one side are almost inevitably viewed as offensive by its enemy. The crux of security dilemma is that no amount of additional equipment or troops can make either side feel safer. Once the downward spiral begins, things can very easily get out of control. And that is exactly what is happening right now.

So what might a new approach to Polish security look like?

In the foreseeable future, military partnership with the United States will remain a bedrock of Polish foreign policy, but from Warsaw’s perspective it would be a mistake to indefinitely rely on American equipment and security guarantees.

In the current geopolitical environment, Poland would be wise to speed up the development of its own military industry, especially in the field of drones, automation and AI. This could make it more resistant to a threat posed by Russia's hybrid operations or any other future threats.

But first and foremost, Poland should recognize an urgent need to invest in an active and flexible diplomacy aimed at reducing hostility and tensions with the country it fears the most.

This would be no easy task, and, most likely, it would not yield any concrete result at the beginning. But it would be a far more prudent path than desperately seeking a permanent U.S. lifeline at a time when the U.S. is pulling back from Europe.