A Blairite, a Brownite, a Corbynite and a Starmerite walk into a pub, and the person working behind the bar asks, “what are you drinking, Andy?” If you want a sense of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s political compass, this media quip gets you part of the way. His conversion from Brownite orphan, voting for the Iraq war, supporting welfare cuts, to his contemporary image as the ‘King of the North’, known for his rousing diatribes against the nation’s uneven political economy, its disenfranchisement of the English north, and his self-professed support for an ‘aspirational socialism’, exhibits a politician incredibly adept at sticking his tongue out, licking his finger tip, discerning which way the wind is blowing, and proceeding in the most individually fortuitous direction possible.
His intelligence and that of his inner circle this time round comes down to his ability to identify that he may be Labour’s last hope of rescuing its historic project from electoral oblivion. The two-party duopoly, constituted by Labour and Conservative institutions which have overseen the maintenance of British capitalism for well over a century, is in freefall.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK waits in the wings. The Greens float cautiously to Labour’s left flank. After the mass membership and electoral surges of both these plucky start-ups, Burnham isn’t simply an attempt to shift Labour to the left in order to preserve it.
‘Manchesterism’, the spurious regional doctrine which sees left-wing rhetoric blended with real estate-led regeneration and social cleansing, is an attempt to contain the snowballing social crisis which sees mass political energy surge through new institutions that threatens if not to destabilise the political system itself, then at least to take it out of the hands of the directors, PR merchants and corporate magnates who believe they have a God-given right to govern.
But Burnham, true to his chameleon form, knows full well that his project isn’t one of popular dignity, but of the containment of everyday anger and reassurance to the powerful and wealthy. Keir Starmer’s disarrayed term in office and Labour’s poor performance in the recent local elections are the background to Burnham’s return.
The resignation of Labour Together MP, Josh Simons, making way for a by-election in the North West of England that could see Burnham return to Parliament, and so become Labour leader and Prime Minister, is a last chance gamble on the part of a dying Labour establishment. The battleground for this national contest, the Markerfield constituency in western Greater Manchester, specifically Wigan and its hinterlands, is neck-and-neck between Labour and Reform UK.
In this respect, Burnham has to prove he is capable of winning this by-election and of defeating Reform UK nationally. As psephologist Rob Ford has detailed , Makerfield is a historic Labour constituency, disproportionately white, older, with high levels of car ownership, low levels of unemployment and average levels of economic inactivity, voting overwhelmingly for Brexit in 2016, without breaking for Boris Johnson’s Tories in the 2019 collapse of the so-called ‘Red Wall’.
This will by no means be an easy ride for Burnham, but the constituency’s long Labour link has been less tenuous than elsewhere in the country, and his reputation for standing with the Hillsborough families in a part of the North West that is more Scouse than Mancunian, will undoubtedly assist him in his efforts.
It will not be an easy ride, though. Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate rightfully derided by progressives for his racism, transphobia, Covid-19 conspiracies and close ties to the 2024 far-right pogroms, is a good candidate for Farage’s right-wing pacemakers. A local candidate and a plumber, communicating a so far quite disciplined and professional campaign, exhibits a strategic nous a million miles away from the alien and haphazard Chat GPT fascism of pseudo-scholar Matthew Goodwin.
The image of Kenyon driving around in his van with Farage in the passenger seat is a neat microcosm of a steadily congealing Reform UK story. Thatcherite in substance, populist in form, Kenyon struck all the compelling notes of this incipient agenda: a local lad who loves the Rugby League, small business ownership as a gateway to genuine freedom, tax as an instrument for keeping down wages and individuating people into productive subjects, the absence of a Protestant work ethic among the young and a sluggish welfare system which facilitates idleness, and communities thrust into decline by racialised others who prevent children from playing out like yesteryear.
Against this, Burnham has his own story of reindustrialisation, nationalisation and productive investment and restructuring of Britain’s uneven political economy, otherwise known as ‘Manchesterism’.
In this respect, Burnham is the white knight defending Labourism against its right flank, but he must also hold off its left flank in the Greens. So whilst the Makerfield contest will not play out like the nation’s last pivotal by-election - this is a straight fight between Labour and Reform UK - Zack Polanski’s band of ‘eco-populist’ insurgents, riding high after a decent local election showing earlier this month, have been paralysed by the withdrawal of two candidates for dubious statements about recent antisemitic attacks. But perhaps more importantly in this instance, a deeper political tension over what precisely its political project and strategy are has emerged. Interventions from former Green leader and parliamentarian Caroline Lucas, alongside a statement signed by dozens of senior party figures, have insisted the party approach the Makerfield by-election with “trepidation”. A sign that large quarters of the Green establishment are less wedded to Polanski’s wanton majoritarianism and more keen on a progressive alliance to stop Reform UK. This raises the prospect of the left uniting with the tainted Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, and practically stepping down in Makerfield, foreshadowing possible electoral alliances at the next general election.
But at what cost? And where would it stop? Andy Burnham may communicate a nicer, savvier brand of Labourism than Keir Starmer, but he should not be trusted. His much-celebrated publicly-owned bus system is run for profit by a private contractor. In the weeks since he declared his candidacy, he has accepted Reeves’ fiscal rules despite earlier statements the country was too “in hock to the bond markets”. He also claims to be the great hope to defeat Farage, whilst peddling the anti-migrant racism of Starmer & Mahmood; and he has abandoned trans communities and come out in support of the transphobic recommendations of the Equality and Human Rights Commission report on single sex spaces.
Within days, the last hope against Farage, has shown us just how status quo he really is. A politician who wants to confront what he describes as the “four horsemen of apocalypse” - deindustrialisation, austerity, privatisation & Brexit - appears to have no grasp of what it will take to make British capitalism a productive, successful system, let alone tinker it into a project that might bring dignity and a good life to its people.
The Makerfield by-election is Burnham’s to lose. If he does lose, hopes of a progressive alliance to stop Reform UK will lie in tatters, as even Labour’s most enduring electoral fortresses turn rightwards. If he wins, he will likely become Prime Minister. And, bearing in mind his untested national character and the ease with which he caves to power, just imagine Burnham’s stock with the public after three years as PM, with Britain on its current trajectory of ballooning unemployment, rising prices, soaring rents and punishing interest rates.
The question for Zack Polanski’s Greens is why on earth would they want to subordinate their project to someone who offers so little, when hitching themselves to that wagon and failing to sufficiently distance themselves from the so-called ‘King of the North’ could be so costly? Jonas Marvin is the author of forthcoming The Breaking of the English Working Class, due out for Verso Books in August 2026. He also cohosts Life of the Party podcast and blogs at Marx’s Dream Journal. Follow Jonas on X: mØØdyjonas Have questions or comments? Email us at: editorial-english@alaraby.co.uk Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.