Mogadishu, Somalia - When Israel announced last December that it would recognise Somaliland , speculation was rife over which countries might follow. Several names circulated in Somali political circles, particularly states with close ties to the breakaway republic.
Ethiopia - which had previously signed a memorandum of understanding for sea access in exchange for recognition - was mentioned, as was the UAE , which has a military base in Somaliland and whose company, DP World , operates Somaliland’s main commercial port in Berbera.
And although Somaliland’s leaders have continued to insist that Israel will be one of many states to recognise it, it remains the only country to have done so.
That, in turn, has raised questions about Somaliland’s ability to maintain a balanced relationship with Israel, and what it has had to give to keep it.
Those questions came into sharp focus last week when Somaliland’s ambassador, Mohamed Hagi, presented his credentials to Israeli President Isaac Herzog and announced that Hargeisa would open its first foreign embassy in Jerusalem. Most countries keep their missions in Tel Aviv, deliberately, to avoid prejudicing the unresolved question of the city’s final status . Somaliland, newly recognised and anxious not to jeopardise its only formal diplomatic lifeline, has now planted itself on the other side of that consensus, joining eight other countries and only one other Muslim-majority country with an embassy there. The move has been condemned by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League, and the Somali government.
None of this has dampened the mood in Hargeisa. When crowds poured onto the streets on 18 May to mark the 35th anniversary of independence from Somalia - a celebration that typically passes with scarce international notice - Israeli flags were everywhere. Clips of Israelis and Somalilanders dancing together circulated on the internet. That same day, Hagi presented his credentials to Herzog. By evening, President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, was on a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the only call with a foreign leader he is reported to have held that day.
In April, Irro had told a joint session of parliament that Israel had proven itself a “reliable partner,” prompting lawmakers to rise in sustained applause.
Israeli flags have since appeared at Somali weddings and private gatherings, and Israeli diplomats have been engaging Somaliland diaspora communities from London to Stockholm.
Irro correctly gambled that Somaliland’s public would welcome the move, despite what one would assume to be hostility and distrust in the Muslim-majority republic. Indeed, Irro’s predecessor, Muse Bihi, chose to break off his own talks with Israel, fearing political backlash, a source close to him told The New Arab .
Surprisingly, relations between the two sides have gotten off to a strong start on multiple levels. “All we wanted was for our country to be recognised, we’d been pushing for this for more than thirty years,” Mahmoud Farah, a vendor in Hargeisa, told The New Arab . “We’re grateful they took this big step, and of course, we consider them our friends now.” Somaliland's Israel gamble Somalia fractured into a patchwork of self-governing territories after the collapse of the state in the early 1990s. Most have broadly accepted their place within Somalia’s new federal system, which was designed to accommodate them. Somaliland has pursued the more ambitious goal of full statehood rather than being a part of Somalia, resisting repeated overtures from successive Somali administrations to reconcile. Briefly independent after Britain granted it self-rule, it united with Italian Somaliland to form the Somali Republic in 1960. In the late 1980s, an uprising in the north - led by the Somali National Movement against the military regime of General Siad Barre - triggered the bombardment of major northern cities, killing tens of thousands and culminating in Somaliland’s declaration of independence on the former British colonial borders. That declaration remains internationally unrecognised, and Somaliland doesn’t control all the territory it claims, but it does hold key urban centres, including Hargeisa, the capital, and Berbera, a strategic Gulf of Aden port.
For the past 35 years, Somaliland’s government and its supporters have lobbied tirelessly for recognition , appealing to any actor willing to entertain the prospect of a strategically located ally. A central element of Somaliland’s pitch has been its claim to be a democratic, relatively peaceful polity aligned with the West, in contrast to Somalia, which remains politically unstable. Though Somaliland now has several foreign partners, they engage with it without taking a position on its status, and often with the approval of the Somali government.
That determination for recognition, and the desperation it eventually produced, is the context in which the Israel deal must be understood. In mid-2025, Irro’s government wrote to 193 heads of state, offering strategic access and cooperation in exchange for recognition. The majority did not respond to the appeal. But in January, Irro told a cabinet meeting that only Israel did, addressing the “desire of my people and we are grateful to them,” he said.
What that gratitude might translate into has raised concerns in Somalia, Somaliland, and the wider region about what the Irro administration could be prepared to offer in exchange for Israeli recognition and cooperation.
Early indications suggested the move was unlikely to have been driven by sentiment. The Israeli government initially thanked the Mossad director for his role in brokering the arrangement, and shortly afterwards, Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, visited Somaliland and noted that security was high on Israel’s agenda.
Somali officials - from the president to the defence minister - have repeatedly alleged that Israel seeks to establish a military base in Somaliland to support potential strikes against its key regional adversary, the Houthis in Yemen , located roughly 500km across the Gulf of Aden.
Somaliland’s presidency minister, Khadar Abdi, when asked about the prospect of an Israeli military base, declined to rule it out, saying there would be “an analysis at some point” in an interview with Bloomberg. Le Monde , and Ekot , Sweden’s public radio, have reported that Israel may already be moving to station itself in Somaliland in some capacity.
The Houthis have been explicit about the implications: their leader has said any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be treated as a legitimate military target. Despite the threat and the clear security risks, however, the relationship has steamrolled ahead.
A team of 25 officials completed a water management training programme in Israel in March, and in May, Somaliland’s ambassador hosted a business conference bringing together investors to discuss opportunities in ports, logistics, fisheries, and energy. Red Sea rivalries In an interview with Reuters at the World Government Summit in Dubai in February, Somaliland’s President Irro said he hoped a trade agreement would also be signed.
Nevertheless, dissent has been slowly growing within Somaliland, raising key questions about the direction of travel, the dangers it may entail, and whether Somaliland still has its hand on the steering wheel.
Guleid Dafac, a prominent Somaliland human rights advocate who had backed the government when it established ties, said Somaliland’s decision to open its first embassy in Jerusalem “runs against conscience” and would undermine its cause for broad international recognition. “Relations with other countries should be based on equality. They should not contradict your own national interests,” he said in a Facebook post. In February, Muse Bihi, Irro’s predecessor and still an influential figure in Somaliland's politics, released a video demanding that the government disclose the full contents of whatever was agreed with Israel for recognition. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, Djibouti’s president, whose model of foreign bases in exchange for international backing Somaliland has sought to emulate, told Jeune Afrique that Israel’s goals were not peaceful, adding he was concerned that “the Somaliland government is ready to give Mr Netanyahu everything he asks for in exchange for this recognition”.
Horn of Africa states, including Somaliland, struggle to “determine their own destiny because they appear to become vassal states in a middle power game,” Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert and associate professor in Security Studies at King’s College London, told The New Arab .
“The engagement gets legitimacy, and they are willing to surrender agency and autonomy over it,” he added. Mohamed Abdi Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional intergovernmental body, said at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum earlier this year that the region’s strategic position along the Red Sea - through which a large share of global trade passes - “attracts a lot of interest from freelancers and other people who are not interested in our well-being”. A Somali diplomatic source working on the Middle East issued a similar warning, telling The New Arab that by inviting foreign actors with securitised interests, the Horn of Africa risks being turned “into a mere arena of influence for external powers if its countries do not regain the initiative”.
The decision by Israel comes as the country faces greater regional and global isolation than ever before, having fought with almost all its neighbours. Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have seen a degree of alignment in their interests following Iran’s wars with Israel, while the UAE and Israel have further consolidated their partnership and sought to bring in new allies like Somaliland.
Iran and its regional network, meanwhile, have been battle-tested through years of sustained conflict.
Somaliland has found itself thrust into the centre of these shifting dynamics and is seeking to leverage its strategic geography into new partnerships, gaining allies, but also inheriting its friends’ opponents.
At a panel discussion, a senior foreign policy adviser to President Irro said Somaliland was “exposed” but had to “take the stage it has to take”, adding: “You make enemies because of what you want and who you want to be. I think Somaliland is ready for that.” Faisal Ali is a freelance journalist covering Somalia and East Africa Follow him on X: @FaisalAHAli Edited by Charlie Hoyle