IDF raid targets the town of Douair in southern Lebanon. Well, that didn’t take long. If you placed a wager on the Polymarket that Iran and the US would fail to meet in Switzerland on Friday, then go collect your winnings and send me a tip. Israel ignored Donald Trump’s request that it halt military operations in Lebanon and chose instead to escalate its attacks south of the Litani river. Intense clashes are taking place on the outskirts of Nabatieh, Lebanon, between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The ball is now in Donald Trump’s hands… Will he demand Israel stop or face the consequences, or will he acquiesce to Bibi? Trump has the power to force Netanyahu to submit by cutting off or delaying the delivery of critical military aid and by withdrawing US air defense assets, i.e., the Patriot and the THAAD.
The Middle East Spectator reports that if Israel does not implement an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and stop its advances along all sectors, Iran will consider withdrawing from the Memorandum of Understanding
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement late on Thursday regarding the MoU:
“With careful supervision of the negotiation process, if any violation or breach occurs by the American side, according to the predetermined plan, a countermeasure will be taken.”
The statement emphasizes “ complete distrust of the treacherous and treaty-breaking enemy ” and readiness to respond.
And Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that:
The Iranian delegation’s meeting with the U.S. in Geneva is postponed, until there is a ceasefire in Lebanon. Until that time, Iran will not unilaterally implement its committments of the MoU—until the U.S. does the same.
Iran is not going to act emotionally or irrationally. Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Aragchi are certain to consult with their Pakistani, Chinese and Russian counterparts before taking any military action against Israel. The situation remains fragile and volatile. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei issued the following message as well on Thursday: ‘O passionate and loyal nation of Iran! As you have been informed, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Presidents of Iran and the United States.
In the path to reaching this stage, the responsible officials, out of concern and with good intentions, made many efforts, and indeed it was this American President who, out of desperation, used various levers to achieve this matter. I, in principle, had a different opinion. But due to the commitment that the honorable President, as the head of the Supreme National Security Council, gave on behalf of himself and other members to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front, and because he explicitly accepted responsibility for it, I issued permission for it.
They also explicitly stated that if the American side tries to make excessive demands, they will not accept them.
From this moment on, we, meaning you, the proud nation, and this humble servant, will wait for the realization of the stated conditions.
However, it is obvious that the face-to-face negotiations that will be held in the future will not mean accepting the enemy’s view. We hope that the good prayers of our Master, may God hasten his noble reappearance, will bring various victories and triumphs to the honorable nation of Iran.‘
As you can see in the preceding message, President Pezeshkian is on the hook — not literally — if the US fails to deliver on its promise to rein in Israel and secure a genuine ceasefire. We will see what tomorrow brings. Personally, I think that Iran will help Hezbollah drive the IDF out of southern Lebanon.
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More podcasts on the swirl of events surrounding the MoU. I started the day with Judge Napolitano in an unscheduled appearance: I joined Danny Haiphong, sans Colonel Wilkerson who is on vacation, to discuss prospects for a Friday meeting in Switzerland (now kaput I was back on with Edmund DeMarche, editor of the Trends Journal : Nima continues to closely monitor events in his homeland and we did another impromptu chat: Mario’s title says it all: Israel Sabotages MoU: Sulaiman and I are making this a regular gig… Wrapping up the day’s events in the Persian Gulf: --- I thank you for your invaluable support by taking time to read or comment. I do not charge a subscription fee nor do I accept advertising. I want the content to be accessible to everyone interested in the issues I am discussing. However, if you wish to make a donation, please see this link .