Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has announced a joint German-French initiative for Lebanon, which he said seeks to improve the prospects for peace in the region, as analysts believe European powers are seeking a greater role in shaping the country's post-war security architecture rather than leaving Washington as the sole ceasefire guarantor.
"Together with France, we want to develop a common policy on Lebanon in order to improve the prospects for peace in the Middle East," Wadephul told the Tagesspiegel newspaper over the weekend, ahead of next week’s Franco-German ministerial council meeting.
While the announcement from Wadephul does not provide further details on what the proposed initiative will entail, it comes as the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon ( UNIFIL ) is due to begin winding down in the coming months, and as Israel and Lebanon look to begin implementing a framework agreement.
Lebanese political analyst Karim Bitar believes the joint German-French initiative for Lebanon is likely part of an effort to define a mechanism that would replace UNIFIL.
"We already have France, Italy, and Germany being on the record saying that they intend to remain engaged after UNIFIL winds down, even if German troops are no longer deployed under the UN mandate, and Germany had also committed to continuing its military training for the Lebanese Armed Forces to show support," he told The New Arab .
"France and Italy on their side had agreed to implement new political and security arrangements, so I guess its probably an effort of Germany to join this successor framework or complimentary European mission – I think it’s quite reasonable to think that this is the case."
UNIFIL’s mandate is scheduled to expire at the end of this year, with a period of one year of drawdown and withdrawal to follow in 2027. The European Union’s diplomatic service proposed a three-year military and civilian mission to advise and train Lebanese forces, including in border and maritime security, according to a document seen by Reuters last month .
After nearly three years of hostilities, UNIFIL has been unable to prevent the escalation in southern Lebanon - parts of which are currently under Israeli occupation - or halt Hezbollah's armament. Washington and Tel Aviv pressured to block an extension of UNIFIL’s mandate last year.
'Europeanise the deal'
Beyond replacing UNIFIL, Bitar believes European governments are seeking a broader role in southern Lebanon’s post-war security arrangements, rather than leaving Israel's ally, Washington, as the sole guarantor of the framework agreement.
"More broadly, what is interesting in this process, in the rapprochement between Paris, Berlin, and Rome over Lebanon, is that they are maybe trying to Europeanise the implementation of the US-Israel trilateral framework with Lebanon, because many in Lebanon consider that the United States is not an honest broker," he says.
The trilateral framework signed between Israel and Lebanon in late June is supposed to see Israeli forces gradually withdraw from areas they occupy in southern Lebanon and hand these territories over to the Lebanese army, who must dismantle weapons and infrastructure belonging to militant groups. The plan will be overseen by Washington.
Implementation is set to begin "within days," according to US sources, and a US military delegation met with the Lebanese army earlier this week to discuss the next steps on the ground.
Hezbollah has lambasted the framework deal as well as direct talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv, and the group has also refused to disarm if the Israeli occupation continues.
"European countries agree, just like Gulf countries agree, that Washington should not be the sole guarantor, and that in order to help the Lebanese authorities get support for this framework, Europe could seek a larger role in verification, security sector reform, border monitoring, reconstruction," Bitar says.
He added that this would address a concern that some Lebanese officials have voiced privately or publicly that relying exclusively on US mediation would leave the implementation of the framework vulnerable to shifts in Trump’s mood or in American domestic politics.
Lebanon and Israel are scheduled for a new round of talks in Rome on 15 and 16 July to discuss implementing the plan. They precede Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s scheduled visit to Washington on 21 July.