No force has reshaped American politics over the last decade more conspicuously or detrimentally than the expanding influence of the billionaire class. Since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling in 2010 opened the floodgates for unlimited political spending by billionaires and corporations, the ultra-rich have gone from being important donors to effective kingmakers, exerting unprecedented influence over political leaders across the nation. The transformation of the United States from a deeply flawed democratic republic into a venal oligarchy is laid bare by the explosive growth of political spending by its wealthiest citizens. Since 2010, the share of billionaire spending on federal elections has soared from just 0.3% to 19% in 2024, when a mere 300 households spent a total of $3 billion on the elections. According to an analysis by Americans for Tax Fairness, roughly $2.6 billion of that total came from the top 100 households, representing “one of every six dollars spent altogether by all candidates, parties and committees.” Altogether, billionaire spending is up by about 160-fold since the Citizens United ruling 16 years ago. This surge in billionaire spending has shaped both parties, but the main beneficiaries are Republicans as more oligarchs drift to the right. In 2024, when the world’s richest man spent about a quarter-billion dollars backing the candidacy of Donald Trump , about 70% of billionaire contributions went to support Republican candidates and conservative causes. Since 2010, the share of billionaire spending on federal elections has soared. This trend is set to continue in this year’s midterms, with total spending projected to easily outpace the 2022 midterms. According to AdImpact , political ad spending will likely reach $10.8 billion, up more than 20% from four years ago. Once again, much of this money will come from ultra-rich donors, who still overwhelmingly favor Republicans . Six months out from election day, federal political committees have already raised over $4.7 billion from “individuals, companies, dark money organizations and other groups,” Reuters reported. Republican super PACs, in particular, are raking in cash from a long roster of right-wing billionaires who have already bankrolled nearly half of the GOP ’s Senate and Congressional Leadership Funds (PACs) this cycle. The GOP ’s fundraising machine — spanning the party, its congressional super PACs and Trump’s own political committees — has pulled in close to $1 billion this cycle, almost four times what the DNC and Democratic PACs for House and Senate candidates have raised. The billionaire class preference for Republicans has solidified as the Trump-era GOP has grown openly transactional in its governing agenda. At the same time, billionaires have become increasingly wary of the Democratic Party ’s ascendant populists, who have made no secret of their ambition to rein in corporate and billionaire power. This election cycle has seen a growing number of these populists embracing a more adversarial posture toward the billionaire class, with up-and-coming members of the party channeling the spirit of Sen. Bernie Sanders over the party’s more traditional leaders. For some erstwhile “liberal” billionaires, the rise of left-wing populists like Zohran Mamdani and Graham Platner — along with the growing support for progressive proposals like a wealth tax and universal healthcare — have triggered more predictable right-wing heel turns .
But while the party’s populists have gained national clout in recent years, they have yet to displace a party establishment that has little to say about confronting economic inequality, corporate power and the country’s growing class divide. Instead, the centrists have focused their ire on “liberal” interest groups and the scourge of “woke” identity politics. In place of calls for attacking the power of the billionaire class, they forward a rebranded version of neoliberalism that would do little to address the country’s descent into oligarchy. Their preferred candidates are often backed by shadowy outside groups that spend heavily in Democratic primaries in an effort to undermine progressive candidates. These outside groups have been funded primarily by artificial intelligence , crypto and pro-Israel oligarchs. So far, these efforts to kneecap progressives and populists have produced mixed results . In New Jersey’s special election for Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s former congressional seat, outside spending backfired spectacularly and ended up boosting progressive candidate Analilia Mejia over her “moderate” opponents. In Illinois’ primary contests last March, pro-Israel and pro-crypto groups flooded the state with tens of millions of dollars to boost their preferred candidates. Yet these efforts mostly came up short. In the high-profile Senate primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won easily despite the crypto PAC Fairshake spending more than $10 million against her. In another contested Illinois congressional primary, state Rep. La Shawn Ford withstood almost $2.5 million in crypto spending against his candidacy. AIPAC ’s efforts were only slightly more successful. Despite pouring $20 million into four races, only two of its chosen candidates won. Anti-oligarch messaging is resonating with the Democratic base. The limited success of big money in Democratic primaries reflects a base that is yearning for disruptive candidates who are willing to challenge not just the Republican opposition but the party’s own sclerotic leadership. This helps explain why the cycle’s standout candidates have been populists running boldly against the oligarchy, whether it’s James Talarico calling out billionaires for waging “class warfare” on the rest of us or Platner railing against the billionaire class and vowing to aggressively tax the rich. While Talarico won the Texas Democratic nomination for Senate in March, Platner has recently become the presumptive Democratic Senate nominee in Maine after his opponent, Maine Gov. Janet Mills, dropped out due to sagging poll numbers. The early success of candidates like Talarico and Platner indicates that anti-oligarch messaging is resonating with the Democratic base. This is not surprising, as the vast majority of Democrats (and a majority of Americans) believe that big money has overtaken politics and that billionaires wield excessive influence over government that should be sharply curtailed. With this year’s midterms likely to break new spending records, the Democratic Party stands at a crossroads. As the overt party of the billionaire class, the GOP has a clear upper hand in the money race. Yet that class has never been more distrusted or reviled than it is today. As inequality continues to soar and billionaire influence expands, public hostility toward the ultra‑rich is likely to grow in tandem. This presents a clear opportunity for Democrats. Whether the party will rise to meet the populist moment remains unclear. This summer’s primaries will tell us much about the course the party has chosen.
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