In a significant development for the future of its military presence in Syria , Russia resupplied its bases in May for the first time since its client, former President Bashar Al-Assad, was deposed.
Furthermore, Moscow revealed in June that it was engaged in talks with the new Syrian government of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa concerning the “possible reformatting” of those strategic overseas bases.
Russia has recently begun quietly resupplying its two Syrian bases, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in the western coastal province of Latakia, The Wall Street Journa l reported on 1 June.
Citing US officials and reviewing satellite imagery, the report confirmed that the cargo ship Sparta left St. Petersburg with a naval escort in early March and arrived in Tartus in May with military equipment for Hmeimim. It marked the first such shipment since Assad was deposed in December 2024.
Then, on 10 June, Russia’s Foreign Ministry revealed that Moscow was holding talks with Damascus on potentially “reformatting” its bases.
“Within the framework of contacts with Syrian partners, the issue of Russia’s military presence in Syria is also being discussed, including in the context of a possible reformatting of the functionality of Russian military facilities,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a press briefing.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov previously suggested last October that Hmeimim and Tartus could potentially become “humanitarian hubs” for Africa.
Tartus has been important for Moscow since Soviet times, especially after its military lost access to Egypt’s Alexandria and Mersa Matruh bases in the 1970s.
Russia later established Hmeimim during the Syrian civil war, when its military intervened in 2015 in support of Assad’s embattled regime, bombing the armed opposition, including Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group in Idlib.
Before Assad’s fall, a 49-year lease was agreed upon for the bases with 25-year extensions thereafter, seemingly cementing Russia’s military presence in the country forever.
Conversely, after Assad’s fall, the status and future of these bases immediately came into question. They remain important logistical hubs for supporting Russian operations in Africa and resupplying warships in the Mediterranean. Ongoing negotiations “Negotiations on the restructuring of the bases have been ongoing for some time, and one option considered was using the base in Hasakah as a logistics hub following the withdrawal from Hmeimim,” Anton Mardasov, an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute and Russian military affairs expert, told The New Arab .
“At this stage, as I understand it, the parties are leaning toward Hmeimim being used by the Syrian army, while the Russian military will be able to use the facility for transit cargo shipments and to provide training to Syrian troops,” he said.
“In fact, it is already too late to say that Moscow has lost anything, since, de facto, the Hmeimim airbase and the port of Tartus have not been functioning as military facilities since January 2025 and, accordingly, do not play any role in military deterrence against NATO, etc.”
Additionally, the Russian military affairs expert noted that, even by that point, Russia had withdrawn all of its coastal missile systems and strategic air defense systems, which previously included advanced S-400 missile batteries.
From that point on, he noted, no Russian general would risk using Hmeimim for any short-term basing of strategic aircraft and fighter jets since they would be extremely vulnerable to “fire from dominant heights” nearby. Leverage More broadly, Russia’s relationship with Syria remains key to its Middle East policy and security arrangements, Joshua Landis, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, noted.
“Russia needs its bases in Syria to project power in the Mediterranean and Africa, but just as important, if not more important, is its leverage with Israel and the US,” Landis told TNA . “Having a border with Israel cannot be underestimated.”
Israel, he said, has both a “large and growing footprint” across the Middle East and more distant places like Ukraine, Georgia , and Azerbaijan. Furthermore, it has “tremendous sway” over US foreign policy.
“We cannot forget that Russia got Israel to stop arming Georgia decades ago because it threatened to provide Syria with anti-aircraft missiles,” Landis said. “Israel was reluctant to supply Ukraine with military aid for fear of alienating Russia - part of that fear was because of what Russia could do in Syria.”
“Russia is eager to maintain its bases in Syria because Israel is the great power of the region,” he added.
“Having leverage with Israel is having leverage over the future of the Middle East.” Charm campaign At the same time, there are things that Syria needs Russia for, even in this new post-Assad era .
For one, it has a vote on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), of which it is one of the five permanent members. President al-Sharaa, Landis pointed out, has complained bitterly about how “frustrating and a losing proposition” negotiations with Israel are, even telling his Lebanese counterpart not to do it.
“Sharaa needs all the leverage with Israel he can get,” Landis said. “The US has been reluctant to curb its Israeli ally when it comes to expansion into Syria. (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu just told the world that Israel would stay in Syria,” he added.
“Russia can be a key partner, just as it was under Assad and under the regimes that preceded Assad.”
Damascus, he underlined, “has no choice” but to remain on good terms with Moscow.
“Already, we are seeing Saudi Arabia treated as the Guest of Honor at a conference in St Petersburg,” Landis said. “Russia is on a charm campaign in the Middle East as many countries are coming to grips with America's inability to defend them.”
“Many will be reaching out to Russia in the hopes of hedging their bets.” Tartus transition On the ground in western Syria, Hmeimim is not the only Russian base with severe vulnerabilities. The Middle East Institute’s Mardasov explained that Tartus “lacks submarine and surface protection” and is vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
As a result, he assessed that there “can be no question at this time” of any Russian naval operations “aimed at deterrence or maintaining a permanent combat presence” in the Mediterranean.
“Thus, de facto changes have taken place; the question is how they will be formalized legally,” Mardasov said. “These details affect the nature of the Russian military’s continued presence, but for Moscow, the main priority is to maintain the ability to continue logistical operations in Africa.”
“It is clear that without a staging airfield, the cargo capacity of Russian transport aircraft flying to Libya is extremely limited,” he added.
“And for some reason, Moscow is unable or unwilling to conclude agreements with Tunisia and Oman to use their airfields for refueling.” All-Russian military While Russia needs Syria for its strategic location and continued access to these bases, Syria still needs Russia to sustain its military.
As Landis noted, almost all of Syria’s military hardware, from its helicopters to its howitzers, is Russian built. Moscow has reached a military agreement with Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers for repairing Russian-made equipment still in the country’s arsenal. Syria may seek a similar arrangement.
Moscow supplied Damascus with military equipment throughout the Cold War, often through generous loans and aid. That peaked in the latter years of the Soviet Union, when Syria received the most advanced combat aircraft it has ever operated, the fourth-generation MiG-29 Fulcrum.
Those remaining Syrian fighter jets were destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in December 2024. Incidentally, in May 2026, a video purporting to show MiG-29s in Syrian airspace for the first time since then turned out to be a fake generated with artificial intelligence.
Still, it served as a reminder that the heyday of Moscow-Damascus military cooperation is long gone. Nevertheless, it’s highly unlikely that it’s completely over, even with the new powers that be in the Syrian capital.
“Russia is clearly not what it was when the USSR existed or when the Cold War was at its height,” Landis said. “But in a multipolar world, Russia cannot be discounted. Its vast size, agricultural productivity, and its oil and mineral wealth alone make it important.”
“Talking about a new ‘humanitarian’ look for Russia's bases may be good public relations spin, but the importance of hard military power has been confirmed over and over again to President Sharaa,” he added.
“He wants it, and Russia can help him get it.” Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs Follow him on X: @pauliddon Edited by Charlie Hoyle