US$68,844 (HK$539,26 has been bet on prediction market platform Polymarket as to whether jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai will be released by July.
The wager is among several other predictions relating to Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, though it is unclear if platforms like Polymarket and others are legal. Polymarket bets on the release of Jimmy Lai, as of April 8, 2026. Photo: Polymarket screenshot. Hong Kong police were unable to give a definitive answer as to whether the betting markets, where users place money on the probability of an event, are permissible in the city, where most forms of gambling are outlawed.
As of Friday, Polymarket users had bet US$68,844 on whether Lai – who was sentenced to 20 years in prison on national security grounds in February – would be released by June 30. Only five per cent of users currently believe the Apple Daily founder will be freed, down from a high of 23.2 per cent on March 8.
Other China-related bets see users betting on when US President Donald Trump will visit China, with almost US$22 million worth of predictions placed. Millions of dollars have also been wagered on whether, and when, China may attack Taiwan. Polymarket bets on US President Donald Trump visiting China, as of April 8, 2026. Photo: Polymarket screenshot. Six-figure sums are also circulating around weather predictions, as users try to guess the highest temperature on given days in Hong Kong.
Competing platforms Pariflow and Kalshi are also hosting geopolitical bets on Chinese politics, such as the country’s unemployment rate.
‘Regular online patrols’
It is unclear if prediction markets are illegal under Cap. 148 of the Gambling Ordinance. When asked by HKFP, a police spokesperson cited the legislation, which makes no mention of online prediction markets.
“The police will continue to adopt a four-pronged strategy – namely prevention, education, intelligence gathering, and enforcement – to combat all forms of illegal gambling,” a police spokesperson said on March 24. “The police will also conduct regular online patrols to monitor emerging market activities for any signs of illegal gambling. Upon discovery of illegality, the police will take decisive enforcement action.” Hong Kong Police Force. File photo: Tom Grundy/HKFP. In the US, they are considered speculative futures markets, rather than gambling. Anonymous traders have made millions of dollars making last-minute bets on the Trump administration’s decisions on tariffs, Venezuela and Iran, prompting calls for more regulation to tackle suspected insider trading.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club has a government-sanctioned monopoly on gambling in Hong Kong. Only gambling on lotteries, basketball, horse racing and football is permitted.
A licence is required for any entity to operate, promote, or facilitate gambling in Hong Kong.