Study marks 1,000 days of Gaza war, mapping changes and forecasting upcoming scenarios


GAZA, (PIC)

The Palestinian Center for Political Studies issued on Thursday an analytical study entitled “1,000 days of the war on Gaza, transformations of genocide and the reshaping of the Palestinian arena and the international system.”

The study addressed the course of the war on the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, and the humanitarian, political, legal, regional, and international transformations it produced, in addition to looking ahead to the possible scenarios for the next phase.

The center explained that the study comes in conjunction with the approaching passage of 1,000 days since the outbreak of the war, in an attempt to move from documenting losses to analyzing their deep effects on Palestinian society and the Palestinian cause, in addition to its repercussions on international law and the institutions of the international system.

The study concluded that the war is no longer just an extended military confrontation, but has rather turned into a historical event that reshaped the Palestinian arena at various levels, starting from the human being and the social structure up to the political system, and it also raised questions again about the future of international justice and the ability of international institutions to protect civilians and implement international humanitarian law.

It reviewed the scale of destruction inflicted on the Gaza Strip, pointing out that the war caused extensive human losses, and led to the displacement of most of the Strip’s population, in addition to the destruction of housing, infrastructure, hospitals, schools, universities, water and electricity networks, as well as the sharp collapse in food, health, and living security indicators.

The study monitored the transformations witnessed by the Palestinian scene, showing that the war rearranged the priorities of society under the pressure of survival, deepened the effects of displacement, and widened the gap between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with a decline in the effectiveness of traditional institutional frameworks in managing the humanitarian crisis.

It indicated that the war revealed changes in the political environment surrounding the Palestinian cause, represented by the widening gap between official and popular positions in a number of countries, and the escalation of the global presence of the Palestinian cause, against the continuation of the division between the major powers and the increasing criticism of double standards in the application of international law.

The study dedicated an axis to evaluating the performance of the international system, considering that the war constituted an unprecedented test for the collective security system and international law, in light of the limited ability of international institutions to stop the war or provide effective protection for civilians, despite the legal actions before the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.

The study addressed the transformations that occurred in global public opinion, pointing out the restoration of the Palestinian cause’s presence in the international public sphere, the expansion of popular and student movements, and the growing media and human rights interest, in conjunction with the rising debate in a number of Western countries regarding freedom of expression related to the Palestinian cause.

It presented three scenarios for the next phase, represented by the continuation of the low-intensity war, or the stabilization of a fragile ceasefire, or the transition to new political and administrative arrangements related to the future of the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian cause, while emphasizing that the likelihood of any of these scenarios will remain linked to regional and international balances of power.

The study concluded with a set of recommendations that called for strengthening national consensus, developing diplomatic and legal performance, unifying documentation efforts, and rebuilding media discourse on professional foundations, in addition to investing in scientific research and knowledge production to enhance the presence of the Palestinian narrative in international forums.

Published: Modified: Back to Voices